Collectively, the polls show a double digit lead for Clinton over Obama in California. Yet a recent Gallup survey goes beyond the standard numbers and offers estimates based on a high versus low turnout and more importantly, based on the certainty of respondents as to their vote preference. The results show that there is still time for Obama to make up the difference on Clinton among undecideds. From the Gallup survey:
Clinton leads Barack Obama by 12 points to 18 points, depending on turnout assumptions. John Edwards languishes much further behind.About a fifth to a quarter of Democratic voters say they may still change their minds about their vote choice. Among those who claim to be certain of their choice at this time, Clinton still wins, but by a diminished margin [only 8 points in a high turnout election.]
Politics
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It won't be long before we find out the actual results. It should be interesting to see what tactics and strategies both camps come out with between now and then. Thank God someone told them that mud slinging was off the menu! LOL! It's so much harder to recognize who is who with inches of mud all over them! LOL!
Dave Briggs :~)
Posted by: Dave Briggs | January 29, 2008 12:50 PM
Predicting outcomes in California based on polls taken a week before the election is very hazardous. California is notorious for having apparent big leads disappear practically overnight.
Posted by: SLC | February 1, 2008 3:08 PM