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vranespic.jpg Kevin Vranes has a phud in Physical Ocean- ography and Cli- matology. He now studies sci- ence policy and politics at the CSTPR. (More in the about.)

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« why it'll keep on keeping on | Main | scientific balance of power »

let's ask the real question...

Category: Climate change
Posted on: February 8, 2006 1:29 PM, by Kevin Vranes

Enough about twerpboy Deutsch already. Let's get to the real stuff. Last three paragraphs from Revkin's article today:

Yesterday, Dr. Hansen said that the questions about Mr. Deutsch's credentials were important, but were a distraction from the broader issue of political control of scientific information.

"He's only a bit player," Dr. Hansen said of Mr. Deutsch. "The problem is much broader and much deeper and it goes across agencies. That's what I'm really concerned about."

"On climate, the public has been misinformed and not informed," he said. "The foundation of a democracy is an informed public, which obviously means an honestly informed public. That's the big issue here."

I couldn't agree more with the first two paragraphs, but not the first sentence of last paragraph. Hansen leaves something big out here. He should have said, "On climate, the public has been very well informed by some groups, and misinformed and not informed by others."

If Hansen is trying to make the point that public apathy about AGW/CC (anthropogenic global warming/climate change) is a direct outgrowth of its being misinformed or not informed, he's dead wrong.

His own publication in the March 2004 Scientific American is a small part of vast machine of public information that is constantly churning out AGW/CC stories in wide distro zines. These stories are not relegated to obscure scientific journals, but are pasted throughout the SciAm's, Discover's, and NattyGeo's of the world, as well as every newspaper in the U.S. Even the WSJ, easily the most hostile of the major papers, prints front page news on CC that can't be considered misinformation (e.g., link). The public becomes informed through the media, and the last time I read an "AGW is a hoax" story in a popular magazine or newspaper is....well....I can't remember having seen any recently. What I can remember is countless articles like these.

If you know of any glossy, widely read magazines that consistently misinform on climate, I would like to know. There must be some, but I would bet the farm that their numbers are vastly overshadowed by the three magazines listed above and others in that category. And I defy you to find me one article in the past ten years from any of the the well-read science content magazines that describe AGW/CC as being nothing worth worrying about.

To my count, the groups doing the informing and the well-inform[ing] vastly outnumber the ones doing the misinforming. In fact, I can count the misinforming groups I know of on one hand, and they don't seem to get much press.

Hansen might be trying to make the point that it is government's job to do all the informing, and that they are not doing their job. If so, I have two answers: 1- Yes, I agree, some agencies within the Executive branch are not doing their job well lately. 2- Government is only one organization of many who shape public opinion.

The real issue here is not that the American public is misinformed or uninformed. The real issue is that the American public is well informed and still doesn't care. That's the issue you need to address.

LATE ADD: How about some academickese from Myanna Lahsen to say the same thing (link):

Consumers of climate science seldom receive conflicting factual statements with a uniform attitude of skepticism. Rather, they tend to select and uphold as “true” those scientific opinions that support their preferred values, interests, and beliefs, reflective of how sociocultural and political understandings generally mediate perceptions of scientific reality and environmental risks (Douglas and Wildavsky 1984) and of the tenaciousness of interpretive frameworks in the face of countervailing evidence (Kahneman, Slovic, and Tversky 1982).10 Cultural and political meanings guide interpretations toward perceived certainties that reflect and support individual policy preferences. Thus, persons guided by common understandings of science described above are at least as likely to pick their preferred “facts” as they are to be impressed by uncertainty in the face of conflicting expert opinions. The same is also suggested by the considerable correlation between political ideology and environmental beliefs in the United States (Klineberg 1997; Dunlap, Xiao, and McCright 2001). In short, while institutions of reflexive modernization may provide exposure to multiple sources of information, some sources of information tend to be privileged at the reception end.

Right. Couldn't have said it better myself, Myanna.

TrackBacks

  • It's the decision-model... from The Post-Normal Times - Perspectives on Environmental Science and Policy Decisions
    ok, so George Deutsch is now history, and will from now on be known as "a Brownie" - the difference being that Mike Brown, aka, Fashion God, was more worried about making himself (rather than the president) look good -... Read More
    Tracked on February 9, 2006 2:17 PM

Comments

# 1 | Benjamin Harrison | February 8, 2006 2:17 PM

Conservative radio would be a significant source of misinformation on the subject, as is the government position reported in the news. You might argue that there is plenty of accessibility to correct info on AGW, but it is not a good measure of whether those people who need to hear it are paying any attention.

# 2 | kevin | February 8, 2006 2:30 PM

You can definitely go after Rush out-on-a-Limbaugh et al. as a source of misinformation or head-in-the-sandism, but you still need to tackle the fact that people willingly listen to him and (some) are willing believe his views on AGW/CC over the other information that they are exposed to.

# 3 | neil | February 8, 2006 4:40 PM

doesn't it [believing Rush et al.] go back to the previous thread on facts outside of their belief system [what was the phrase someone used?] bouncing off?

or, how about this: people are intimidated by science: "it is difficult", "it is complex". so the 'correct' coverage is scientificky. Rush, from what I�ve heard, is simple, watered down stuff.

i attended a talk on the analysis of the perceptions of biology by science majors on their first day of intro bio class. the science majors who stated that science was complex often did poorly [and vice-versa]. i witnessed it today. a student asked me why we put a second set of water in the test tube. i put the question back on him expecting him to understand it acted as a control [we had discussed control, controlled variables, 'scientific process' in weeks previously]. he couldn't answer or didn't have a good one. i then said, 'well, i'm asking you scientifically why we add additional water in this experiment.'

he immediately shot back he didn't understand it, which i took to mean he didn't understand science. disappointing to me. maybe i didn�t teach well enough?

but, the point: i injected the term �science� to a science major [probably a freshmen] and it seemed to me that he shut down. it seemed to blur his mind.

science is outside of many people's culture in this country. a NYT columnist, kristof I believe, made this point last fall. intelligence in this country is knowledge of the classics, literature and philosophy, not science. the columnist wanted to make a simple calculation and could not find someone outside of NYT�s science dept. that could do this calculation. and, I believe finding this person was tough.

i found it to be telling...and now relevant to this discussion.

# 4 | Benjamin Harrison | February 8, 2006 4:56 PM

you still need to tackle the fact that people willingly listen to him and (some) are willing believe his views on AGW/CC over the other information that they are exposed to.

Indeed I do... but I would contend that this willingness to believe is not strictly indifference regarding the subject, as was the implication ending your post, but rather partisanism and incredulity.

# 5 | kevin | February 8, 2006 5:41 PM

Yea...both are true. I added a passage from a Myanna Lahsen article to the end of the post that I think addresses this.

# 6 | Gavin | February 9, 2006 12:16 AM

And I defy you to find me one article in the past ten years from any of the the well-read science content magazines that describe AGW/CC as being nothing worth worrying about.

Phillip Stott: You can't control the climate
New Scientist vol 179 issue 2413 - 20 September 2003, page 25

http://meteo.lcd.lu/globalwarming/STOTT_you_cant_control_the_climate.html

If you want to include op-eds in mainstream papers then we could go on at much further length...

# 7 | Roger Pielke Jr. | February 9, 2006 8:56 AM

Gavin-

That Stott article is an op-ed. And it doesn't say that global warming is nothing to worry about, it expresses a preference for adaptation over control, "Our crucial mistake is in trying to manage the climate in the vain hope that we can predict it. Instead, we should put our resources into adapting economically and socially - especially at a local and regional level - to whatever it throws at us. I am certain of only one thing: the climate will surprise us." Op-eds are venues for political not scientific discourse.

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