Kevin Vranes has a phud in Physical Ocean- ography and Cli- matology. He now studies sci- ence policy and politics at the As is clear to everybody, the events that led to the flooding of New Orleans in August 2005 were entirely natural. This clearly makes the Katrina-caused events a natural disaster. But is it really?
Pinning indirect blame for Katrina on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) was the obvious first move by AGW activists such as Al Gore and Ross Gelbspan. But in trying to reframe Katrina as a human-caused disaster rather than a random act of nature (or the purposeful act of a vengeful god?) by blaming human spewing of greenhouse gasses, the more pertinent issue was superseded by a political desire to discuss a pet cause.
What is this "more pertinent issue?" Risk. Specifically, the risk that each resident living in hurricane country took by continuing to live in hurricane country. (Recognizing that children and some select others had no choice.)
Hurricane Katrina brought to southern Louisiana and Mississippi two distinct hazards: wind and water. New Orleans had largely survived the wind and almost survived the water, but for one point of failure: levee engineering. Levee building is a risk management solution and an attempt to manage a conflict with nature. It is entirely a human construct used to manage a known hazard. But hazard management through engineering does not mean hazard elimination, and residents of a hazard-prone area forget this at their own peril.
So when a levee breaks in a flood, do we consider the post-break, dry-side flooding to be an act of nature or an act of man? Is this a natural disaster due solely to weather events, or is it a technological disaster, in the same genre as a chemical spill? This is a question asked, but not answered, by Susan Cutter in her 2001 book American Hazardscapes, herself building on work by the seminal natural hazards authors such as Gilbert White, Eugene Haas and Dennis Mileti. To my reckoning, clearly the answer is the latter.
It doesn't matter if Ross Gelbspan was right and "Katrina's real name" is "global warming." If we want to reframe Katrina more intelligently we might as well be honest: Katrina's real name is Gambling Addiction. Accepting the risks and rewards before beginning the game, some of us are willing to gamble by living in hazardous areas. In the case of hurricane-prone locations, AGW must be fit within that context, not the other way around.
The New Orleans disaster did not happen because a strong hurricane pushed into a populated area. The city survived the wind and rain. The disaster happened because humans lived below sea level in a coastal area and protected themselves with thin layers of concrete and steel. This is gambling, and many, many people were willing to play. That they lost the bet is not nature's fault and does not make Hurricane Katrina's aftermath a natural disaster.
Before we continue to highlight every article that comes out on hurricanes and global warming, let's give a little thought to this context first.
(For more along these lines, read the various Pielke posts in this archive.)
Comments
# 1 | stuart | February 17, 2006 1:39 AM
Who among us doesn't gamble on some level? Those of us on the West Coast of the US gamble with earthquakes. The Gulf of Mexico and East Coast, hurricanes. The South-Central region, tornadoes. Every place has risk of natural disaster.
Besides, this hypothesis only really addresses the people who were 'gambling' by living below sea level -- namely, residents of New Orleans. What about all of the other people affected by Katrina -- those in Biloxi, Waveland, Plaquemines, and so forth?
Referring to Katrina as "the New Orleans disaster" seems to indicate that the author has fallen victim to the media approach. New Orleans is a well known city with a rich cultural history, and as such is a richer source for stories than the poor regions surrounding it, many of which were far more heavily impacted.
# 2 | Harry Springer | February 20, 2006 7:54 AM
Also not considered is the actions of mock-professional contract agencies paralyzing government responses by selling hollow panacea evac plans in lieue of actually preparing local responders to act. The little known dirty secret about the south Louisiana disaster plan, which did not work, and was ignored by all, is that James Lee Witt, professionally trolling the disaster plan contract field from his position as a moderately famous ex-Clinton official, had obtained the south Louisiana plan job for his subcontractor, Innovative Emergency Management of Baton Rouge, a new group fronted by one Darwit Beriwal, a group unprepared to work with local sheriffs, police, and other first responders on their own terms. The plan Ms. Beriwal crafted was an irrelevant, and some say criminally incompetent sham, but it earned her $500,000 and an excellence award, only months before the hurricane. The anomaly of a middleman whose credential was fame (Witt) foisting a supposed expert agency on south Louisiana, which had only ever mitigated chemical plumes at the Johnston Island chemical warfare disposal depot, and which did not interact with local responders, but simply crafted a paper plan, was noted with some anger by bloggers during the event, when IEM pulled all mention of its contract, and its award, off their website for obvious reasons. Witt himself escaped all blame, and roamed the South for weeks after the disaster in a 50 foot luxury RV with his partner Lamar Alexander--get this--- selling Verizon phone contracts to municipal officials whose constituencies were drowned , or living in tents, thus successfully monetizing the disaster both before and after it occurred.
So that explains the strange paralysis of municipal officialdom during Katrina.
As far as risk-takers resident in New Orleans, a brave blog operator remained at his post downtown on the 12th floor of an office building during the storm, and the flood, staying online via an emergency generator, and pointing webcams down at the city, webcams where no mainstream media ever went, until a week later. These cameras showed that the stay-behinds, far from being abandoned, had intentionally stayed, for the chance to systematically loot. The cameras showed supplies of bottled drinking water , provided by National Guard troops riding a fire engine through 2-foot deep water, being laughed at by roving thugs, kicked into the street, and then used as victim-bait, robbing anyone who came for a bottle of water. This was within view of the Convention Center, where supposedly no water had ever been provided (if we are to believe main stream media). Other cameras showed the methodical gutting of a retail establishment by a gang of thugs, who did it in liesurely fashion, taking over a day to do so. So the risk taken by the Katrina stay-behinds was exquisitely calculated, and indeed led to many former police officers stealing luxury cars, and driving them out of state, to dispose of them. These were the same officers never included, prepared, trained, or motivated by the sham James Lee Witt/Darwit Beriwal not-a-plan, for which they had made half a million dollars, and won an award.