Kevin Vranes has a phud in Physical Ocean- ography and Cli- matology. He now studies sci- ence policy and politics at the 1: Both Mayor Newsom and Governor Schwarzenegger spoke in the morning plenary session. My Blink politician observation thin-slice:
Newsom: ready for the big time
Governator: deer in headlights
Newsom gave an enthusiastic speech that addressed real issues and real problems, didn't look at a script once, seemed to actually believe what the hell he was talking about. Schwarzenegger read from a script that he didn't emotionally buy into, started with an unmistakable GW-style smirk that he couldn't shake and filled the speech with empty sounding I've done this's and my administration has done that's. That's not to say Schwarzenegger hasn't bought into emergency preparedness on a major scale -- I think he clearly has. It's just to say that as public speakers on a political stage, Newsom impressed me and Schwarzenegger didn't. I also caught clearly Newsom's ambitions for higher office, so we'll see if he can do it despite being very liberal. As a friend pointed out last night, nobody thought Senator Boxer could win her Senate seat either....
2: From paleoseismicity studies, the Hayward fault ruptures every roughly 150 years and the last rupture was 1868. That feeds the Bay Area-wide "62% chance of a Mw > 6.7 in the next 30 years" forecast. Read that in context of this article.
3. Since the 1906 quake relieved a lot of stress on the San Andreas and the other regional faults, the century since has seen a period of unusually quiet activity. Expect the area to move into a more active period over the coming decades.
4. A speaker put up a scan of the SF Examiner from three or four days after the quake:
THE WATERFRONT DESTROYEDTO RESUME BUSINESS AT ONCE
5. The fragile CA levees was a subject on the minds of many, some going as far as saying a 1906 repeat right now (after 3 weeks of heavy rain) would wipe them all out, and take most of the Bay Area's water supply with them. (And for the communities served by Hetch Hetchy, I saw a good map showing the four active faults it crosses.) Apparently the difference between the engineering of the New Orleans levees and the Sac Delta levees is that the NO levees were actually engineered. The Sac Delta levees were often just farmers pushing up dirt into mounds with tractors. Yea, I'm always very skeptical of doomsdaying, but if the effect is even half of that expressed yesterday, the entire state is in big trouble. Beside the obvious NoCal effects, there would be a big disruption in the SoCal water supply projects.
6. Interesting landslide mapping on the Berkeley Hills showing massive and extensive sliding after the 1906 quake and other quakes before any houses were built there. There are still slide scars visible all over the area with some in active creep. There is now about $1B in housing stock in the Berkeley Hills alone. (I'm staying in the Oakland Hills on a very steep slope. Fun!)
7. People on the BART trains actually make eye contact with you. I contrast this with my five years on the NYC subway.
8. Isn't it funny how on a packed commuter train you're forced to stand within embracing distance of a total stranger for fifteen minutes in a proximity you'd never be in for that long with anybody other than a romantic partner, yet you're expected to act like they're not even there. Funny the social rules were construct spontaneously to meet modern life.
Having problems commenting? (UPDATED)