dust https://www.scienceblogs.com/ en The Largest Trainwrecks in the Universe https://www.scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2013/12/11/the-largest-trainwrecks-in-the-universe <span>The Largest Trainwrecks in the Universe</span> <div class="field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field--item"><blockquote><p>"Where you used to be, there is a hole in the world, which I find myself constantly walking around in the daytime, and falling in at night. I miss you like hell." -<em>Edna St. Vincent Millay</em></p></blockquote> <p>It was just a little while ago that we were all speculating wildly -- and optimistically -- about <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2013/10/25/ask-ethan-8-the-comet-of-the-century/">Comet ISON</a>, as it plunged towards the Sun from its origins in the very, very distant Solar System. As its perihelion date (the moment of closest approach to the Sun) drew near, you may have noticed something interesting about photos of the comet: it's tail appeared to get longer and longer!</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/12/10979572133_c49d28c575_o.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-30062" alt="Image credit &amp; copyright: All rights reserved by Joseph Brimacombe, via flickr." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/12/10979572133_c49d28c575_o-600x368.jpg" width="600" height="368" /></a> Image credit &amp; copyright: All rights reserved by Joseph Brimacombe, via flickr. </div> <p>If you compare this to <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2013/10/25/ask-ethan-8-the-comet-of-the-century/">earlier photos</a>, you might think it had something to do with flying too close to the Sun, à la the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daedalus#Daedalus_and_Icarus">Icarus and Daedalus myth</a>. But it has a lot more to do with the physics of gravity than with anything melting due to heat!</p> <p>Don't believe me? Take a look at <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cm8JawFTPa8&amp;feature=youtu.be">this video</a>, captured by NASA and ESA's great solar observatories, and pay <em>particular</em> attention to the <strong>speed</strong> of the comet.</p> <p></p><center> <iframe src="//www.youtube.com/embed/cm8JawFTPa8" height="338" width="600" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0"></iframe><p></p></center>Did you notice anything <em>different</em> about the speed of the comet (or what's left of it) at different times in the video? If you're looking at the same thing I am, it might appear that it moves somewhat slowly as it approaches the Sun, <em>speeds up</em>, and then slows down again as it moves away. <p>Is this a trick of the angle from which we view the comet?</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/12/keplerlaw2_lg.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-30063" alt="Image credit: National Air and Space Museum, Smithsonian Institution." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/12/keplerlaw2_lg-600x487.jpg" width="600" height="487" /></a> Image credit: National Air and Space Museum, Smithsonian Institution. </div> <p>Not a chance; <strong>that's just gravity</strong>. You see, you might be familiar with <em></em><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escape_velocity">escape velocity</a>, or the speed at which you'd need to travel at in order to escape the gravitational pull of a massive, centrally located object.</p> <p>From the surface of the Earth, that's something like 25,000 miles-per-hour (40,000 km/hour).</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/12/escapee.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-30064" alt="Image credit: Pearson / Prentice Hall." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/12/escapee-600x578.jpg" width="600" height="578" /></a> Image credit: Pearson / Prentice Hall. </div> <p>But a lesser-known application of the same physical laws and properties tells us that if you dropped an object from <i>almost</i> zero velocity in the vicinity of that same gravitationally massive source, it will fall towards that center-of-mass, <strong>reaching </strong>that exact escape velocity if it collides with the surface of the massive object dominating the system.</p> <p>For something falling into the Sun from rest an arbitrary distance away, it would be moving at a whopping <strong>617 km/s</strong>, or about 0.2% the speed of light, when it hits the Sun's surface. Comet ISON <a href="http://cometison.wordpress.com/2013/04/15/comet-ison-c2012-s1-ison-update-on-the-speed-of-the-comet-speed-continues-to-increase-as-it-must/">didn't quite get there</a>, but it did get all the way up to <a href="http://www.rumormillnews.com/cgi-bin/forum.cgi?noframes;read=290164">377 km/s</a>, or about 12 times as fast as the Earth orbits the Sun. In general, the closer an object operating <em>only</em> under the influence of gravity gets to the center-of-mass, the faster it moves; <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler's_laws_of_planetary_motion">Kepler's famous second law</a> is a special case of this.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/12/Kepler-second-law.gif"><img class="size-full wp-image-30065" alt="Image credit: Wikimedia Commons user Gonfer." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/12/Kepler-second-law.gif" width="600" height="400" /></a> Image credit: Wikimedia Commons user Gonfer. </div> <p>But the Sun is hardly the most massive thing we know of, and speeds <em>well</em> in excess of this occur naturally, for <em>huge</em> astrophysical systems, all the time.</p> <p>Consider a typical, Milky-Way sized galaxy; for our Solar System to escape from it, we'd need to achieve a speed of about 550 km/s, and we're already some <strong>25,000 light-years</strong> from the galactic center! That means if we dropped an object -- say a much <em>smaller</em> galaxy -- from an arbitrary distance away, it would be moving at about 550 km/s when it collided with us.</p> <p>More spectacularly, however, <em>two</em> massive galaxies attract each other in the depths of space, creating a trainwreck with cosmic motions on the order of <em>double</em> that -- or at around <strong>1,000 km/s</strong> -- when they finally collide!</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/12/GGW.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-30066" alt="Image credit: NASA, ESA, the Hubble Heritage (STScI/AURA)-ESA/Hubble Collaboration, and A. Evans (University of Virginia, Charlottesville/NRAO/Stony Brook University). (Click for an insane version, if you dare!)" src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/12/GGW-600x450.jpg" width="600" height="450" /></a> Image credit: NASA, ESA, the Hubble Heritage (STScI/AURA)-ESA/Hubble Collaboration, and A. Evans (University of Virginia, Charlottesville/NRAO/Stony Brook University). (Click for an insane version, if you dare!) </div> <p>This is, in fact, the future fate of our own galaxy; our somewhat bigger sister, Andromeda, is moving towards us at around 40 km/s, from a gigantic distance of a little more than 2 million light years away. By time we meet in a few billion years, the two galaxies will move at a maximum speed approaching that figure -- 1,000 km/s -- relative to one another!</p> <p></p><center> <iframe src="//www.youtube.com/embed/gmVkmsACgro" height="338" width="600" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0"></iframe><p></p></center>But <i>two</i> galaxies merging like this is hardly large or unusual on the scale of the cosmos. <p>Much more interesting is when we have large collections of galaxies smashing into one another all at the same time! Two spectacular examples are <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seyfert's_Sextet">Seyfert's Sextet</a>,</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/12/seyfertsextet_HLAschmidt_1496.png"><img class="size-medium wp-image-30067" alt="Image credit: Hubble Legacy Archive, NASA, ESA; Processing: Judy Schmidt." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/12/seyfertsextet_HLAschmidt_1496-600x593.png" width="600" height="593" /></a> Image credit: Hubble Legacy Archive, NASA, ESA; Processing: Judy Schmidt. </div> <p>and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephan's_Quintet">Stephan's Quintet</a>,</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/12/Stephans_Quintet.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-30069" alt="Image Credits: X-ray: NASA/CXC/CfA/E. O'Sullivan Optical: Canada-France-Hawaii-Telescope/Coelum." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/12/Stephans_Quintet-600x450.jpg" width="600" height="450" /></a> Image Credits: X-ray: NASA/CXC/CfA/E. O'Sullivan Optical: Canada-France-Hawaii-Telescope/Coelum. </div> <p>both of which will have their constituent galaxies travel in speeds exceeding that value, relative to one another!</p> <p>But why settle for groups of five-or-six galaxies, when we have clusters containing <em>thousands</em>?</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/12/virgodeeplarge1.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-30070" alt="Image credit: © Fabian Neyer / Antares Observatory, via http://www.starpointing.com/ccd/virgodeeplarge1.html." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/12/virgodeeplarge1-600x401.jpg" width="600" height="401" /></a> Image credit: © Fabian Neyer / Antares Observatory, via <a href="http://www.starpointing.com/ccd/virgodeeplarge1.html">http://www.starpointing.com/ccd/virgodeeplarge1.html</a>. </div> <p>The Virgo Cluster, shown here, has galaxies whizzing about at around a full <strong>1% the speed of light</strong> relative to one another, and many of these galaxies are huge, giant ellipticals some ten times (or more!) the mass of our Milky Way!</p> <p>You think that's big?</p> <p>Now, imagine two of these giant clusters falling into and colliding <em>with each other</em>!</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/12/bulletcluster_comp_f2048.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-30072" alt="Image credit: X-ray: NASA/CXC/CfA/ M.Markevitch et al.; Lensing Map: NASA/STScI; ESO WFI; Magellan/U.Arizona/ D.Clowe et al. Optical: NASA/STScI; Magellan/U.Arizona/D.Clowe et al." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/12/bulletcluster_comp_f2048-600x433.jpg" width="600" height="433" /></a> Image credit: X-ray: NASA/CXC/CfA/ M.Markevitch et al.;<br />Lensing Map: NASA/STScI; ESO WFI; Magellan/U.Arizona/ D.Clowe et al.<br />Optical: NASA/STScI; Magellan/U.Arizona/D.Clowe et al. </div> <p>That's what we've got for the Bullet Cluster (above), cluster Abell 520 (below),</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/12/hs-2012-10-c-print.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-30073" alt="Image credit: NASA, ESA, CFHT, CXO, M.J. Jee (University of California, Davis), and A. Mahdavi (San Francisco State University)." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/12/hs-2012-10-c-print-600x750.jpg" width="600" height="750" /></a> Image credit: NASA, ESA, CFHT, CXO, M.J. Jee (University of California, Davis), and A. Mahdavi (San Francisco State University). </div> <p>and cluster MACSJ0025 (at bottom), among many others. These composite images show the individual galaxies in the optical, dark matter (a proxy for total mass) in blue, and shocked, hot X-ray gas in pink (or green, for Abell 520).</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/12/MACS_J0025.4-1222.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-30074" alt="Image credit: NASA, ESA, CXC, M. Bradac (University of California, Santa Barbara), and S. Allen (Stanford University)." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/12/MACS_J0025.4-1222-600x591.jpg" width="600" height="591" /></a> Image credit: NASA, ESA, CXC, M. Bradac (University of California, Santa Barbara), and S. Allen (Stanford University). </div> <p>With maximum relative speeds reaching <strong>4,000 km/s</strong>, or around <em>1.4%</em> the speed of light, these are the largest-scale, fastest-moving giant objects in the Universe, and as our telescopic reach extends farther and farther back, we're only finding progressively more impressive ones! Dark matter plays a huge role here, increasing the hefty masses of these objects by a factor of five or so over what they'd weigh if they were made of normal matter alone, and the highest speeds we see are raised by a factor of about 140% as a result!</p> <p>So that's a little glimpse at the greatest cosmic trainwrecks in the Universe, at speeds you might never have imagined for something so large!</p> </div> <span><a title="View user profile." href="/startswithabang" lang="" about="/startswithabang" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">esiegel</a></span> <span>Wed, 12/11/2013 - 12:46</span> <div class="field field--name-field-blog-tags field--type-entity-reference field--label-inline"> <div class="field--label">Tags</div> <div class="field--items"> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/astronomy-0" hreflang="en">Astronomy</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/dark-matter" hreflang="en">Dark Matter</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/galaxies" hreflang="en">Galaxies</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/gravity" hreflang="en">gravity</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/physics" hreflang="en">Physics</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/cluster" hreflang="en">cluster</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/collision" hreflang="en">collision</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/dust" hreflang="en">dust</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/escape" hreflang="en">escape</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/galaxy" hreflang="en">galaxy</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/gas" hreflang="en">gas</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/merger" hreflang="en">merger</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/speed" hreflang="en">speed</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/velocity" hreflang="en">velocity</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/x-ray" hreflang="en">X-Ray</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/galaxies" hreflang="en">Galaxies</a></div> </div> </div> <section> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523468" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1386838032"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>If Dark Matter was actually made of weakly interacting matter, wouldn't a galaxy that had gone through a collision be devoid of Dark Matter?</p> <p>The DM associated with the colliding galaxies would have escape velocity when the galaxies collided and would escape the galaxies. That we haven't found any galaxies that don't have any DM, or even any galaxies where the ratio of DM to regular matter deviates from the norm. </p> <p>Doesn't this rule out WIMPs and similar particles as DM possibilities?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523468&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="w76WliuGJeRWdUB5AmBtpy5jSMXLGzpVZbdqRz81Vyo"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Denier (not verified)</span> on 12 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523468">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523469" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1386839322"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>@Denier #1: I think you're missing something in the kinematics. When two galaxies (or clusters) collide, it is the galaxies _along_with_ their DM haloes which collide. The galaxies generally stay gravitationally bound within their much larger haloes. The gas and dust of the two galaxies interact and get tidally disrupted by the encounter (see that great collage at the top of the article). The DM haloes get much less disrupted. If the two systems merge, forming a single bound system, then the two haloes also "merge", overlapping to form a single large halo.</p> <p>On a separate note, we _do_ have many observations of galaxies with wildly different DM ratios. These are mostly dwarf and satellite galaxies, and they run the gamut from being nearly all dark matter (as much as 90% or more!) to being almost entirely baryonic.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523469&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="elEoAJ7NtlWrkdpiIitCRtFs66oXim8OLE4CxPmWodE"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Michael Kelsey (not verified)</span> on 12 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523469">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523470" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1386841006"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>@Michael Kelsey #2: I agree that there has to be something I'm missing if collisions don't result in ejecting all DM. With the way Ethan described it, it sounded like everything has escape velocity when the galaxies collide, but the regular matter loses escape velocity via the interactions you describe. If DM doesn't interact then it wouldn't ever lose escape velocity. The disparity in interaction would cause regular matter to have a sub-escape velocity while DM had escape velocity and the two would be permanently separated.</p> <p>It is good to read that observations do report varying ratios. I had always thought all elliptical galaxies had to have the exact same ratio to correctly model their spin. I did not know this was not the case.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523470&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="RmZUftLn8roLQtCdNeJz39nzi4ut6WqsX0qxY9aPNEU"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Denier (not verified)</span> on 12 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523470">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523471" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1386842782"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>I understand escape velocity from our sun is greater than escape velocity from the Milky Way *from our position*, since we're far from the centre (and so if we can escape the sun, escaping the Milky Way is a piece of cake). I was going to ask what the escape velocity would be from the centre of our galaxy, but I guess that's very ill-defined: at the very edge of the black hole at the centre, escape velocity is essentially light speed, right? So escape velocity can be anything up to light speed depending on how far you begin your journey from the event horizon of the black hole. Given that fact, is there some privileged escape velocity we could figure out for a given galaxy, or are escape velocities inescapably (sorry) dependent on position?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523471&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="EwyPPZe4nlYzbbdNpEHfsyAgXRwX5VKjnlRXYfjH8wg"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">uncleMonty (not verified)</span> on 12 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523471">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523472" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1386843190"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>One other thing: how does 5 times the mass (in a DM-heavy galaxy) end up giving 140% of the velocity? I would have thought 5 times the mass in each gives a gravitational attraction between two galaxies that is 25 times bigger, and an acceleration that is 5 times bigger. Obviously you can't translate acceleration to velocity without knowing initial velocity and elapsed time--so is the 140% you quoted just an accident of how far apart they started and how fast they were moving before they got caught in each others' grip? It seems like that figure could have been much higher.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523472&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="jdm1EdA5tSuyLvMarHQdFvC4XaKFEh5EVLM0SMefwWE"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">uncleMonty (not verified)</span> on 12 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523472">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523473" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1386843655"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>DM interacts gravitationally, denier.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523473&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="xs84on5ZASqyTZCav4l6rJuSjCCOMul_Lnv2Qsnsr-g"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 12 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523473">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="33" id="comment-1523474" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1386849309"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>UncleMonty @5,</p> <p>Quick answer: 5 times the mass extra results in a velocity that's is sqrt(5+1) as great, which is ~240% as great, or 140% greater. Hope that helps!</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523474&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="NHmB8rSYg7fs60f-tJEoMD60dIExN-jk3nRXkPCZ_eQ"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/startswithabang" lang="" about="/startswithabang" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">esiegel</a> on 12 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523474">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/startswithabang"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/startswithabang" hreflang="en"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/pictures/pastey-120x120_0.jpg?itok=sjrB9UJU" width="100" height="100" alt="Profile picture for user esiegel" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523475" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1386856893"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>@Wow #6 (following Denier #3): I think that was the point of Denier's question. He framed it in terms of individual galaxies, but our best observational data comes from clusters, and Denier's question is quite valid based on that data.</p> <p>Consider the "Bullet Cluster", which is a post-collision in progress between two middle-sized galaxy clusters. Observationally, we see three very different things, simultaneously:</p> <p>1) The two groups of visible galaxies mostly passed "through" each other with some tidal distortion, but not disruption, of individual galaxies. That's a consequence of the individual galaxies being relatively small, with relatively large spaces between them.</p> <p>2) The mostly non-visible ionized gas is highly visible in X-rays, in the form of a wide and deep hot shock wave in the middle region between where the two clusters passed. That's a consequence of the intergalactic medium (IGM) being continuous through each cluster, and interacting relatively strongly via pressure and density.</p> <p>3) The majority of the mass, observed via distributions of strong and weak lensing of distant background galaxies, is found on the far sides of the X-ray shock described in (2). These two big mass "blobs" (read "haloes") more or less still encompass the visible groups of galaxies (which, as you recall from (1), mostly just passed through one another).</p> <p>So what's happened in the Bullet Cluster is that the DM (3) really did just pass through, and the visible "small" (by comparison) galaxies went along for the ride. The more uniformly distributed baryonic stuff (the IGM) in the two clusters, crashed and burned, and got left behind :-)</p> <p>The Bullet Cluster is just our first example of this; other cluster collisions have been found, and follow more or less the same pattern.</p> <p>Now, with all of that description, Denier's question about what would happen in a galaxy-galaxy collision is quite valid! Naively, you'd expect the DM haloes to do what they did in the Bullet Cluster, and zip through each other, leaving behind an extra-large elliptical galaxy (the result of the merger), without much of a DM halo. </p> <p>But that isn't what we expect, because the conditions aren't actually identical. The collision speeds will be lower, and the galactic DM haloes are themselves embedded in a larger cluster halo, so they are more likely to capture each other gravitationally, and (over ~ a billionish years) virialize into one big halo with the merged elliptical embedded in it.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523475&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="1JeOCEb3TzqZGLfh76YZU_3ZJVzmIfEsg9tWdnarQQQ"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Michael Kelsey (not verified)</span> on 12 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523475">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523476" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1386857192"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Denier: We are seeing exactly the kind of separation you'd expect from weakly interacting matter in several of the cases above.</p> <p>In broad strokes there are 3 kinds of matter to think about in these galactic collisions: Stars, dust/gas, and Dark Matter.</p> <p>Stars are extremely dense compared to the other two types, and because of the great distance between them are extremely unlikely to collide with each other -- the Milky Way/Andromeda crash in the future is likely to only produce a few, if any, stellar collisions. Stars do interact with the diffuse gas of the interstellar medium, but that doesn't slow the star significantly because the star is so dense compared to the medium.</p> <p>The dust/gas of the two galaxies does collide, and so tends to pile up where the collision occurs.</p> <p>WIMPs or similar types of Dark Matter don't interact with much of anything including itself, so it carries on unimpeded.</p> <p>So what you'd expect is that in a galactic collision the dust and gas would be stripped off from the galaxy, leaving just the stars and dark matter to continue on. So what you'd expect to see is a large cloud of gas, heated by the collision, with stars and dark matter separate. </p> <p>And that's what we see! Galaxies with lots of stars, but very little dust, and much more mass than the stars alone can explain. And nearby, where the presumable collision occurred, a large cloud of heated gas</p> <p>As to the point about escape velocity -- it's important to note that an object will only reach exactly escape velocity falling into a gravity well if it began at infinity. When that is not the case, the object can get going very fast, but only fast enough to reach the same distance it was before gravity slows it down to a stop and it comes back once again.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523476&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="VoT9MIn-1n4Ti3DE9Rn1Kna79GTb-h6p6KPqSo7bx-g"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">CB (not verified)</span> on 12 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523476">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523477" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1386857472"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Well, Michael Kelsey, you beat me to it, and with a better explanation to boot. Very nice. Now where is that 'delete post' button?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523477&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="cVmuuVJck5Bl5gqB0lDTXytopSI-6VJGsUADtUglrVw"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">CB (not verified)</span> on 12 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523477">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523478" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1386882776"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>When you say "dust," what particle sizes are you talking about? Does this include anything large enough to constitute a hazard to life-bearing planets in the manner of large asteroids?</p> <p>And, will the increase in ambient gamma radiation be a hazard to life-bearing planets? </p> <p>By the time Andromeda collides with the Milky Way, humans or our evolutionary descendants will either have become an interstellar species, or will not have done so and thereby gone extinct via the impacts of increase in solar luminosity. </p> <p>Assume an interstellar civilization spread across many star systems, that has mastered asteroid defense on each of its homeworlds, and has the means to migrate out of any given system before its local star becomes a hazard. Assume that such a civ is spread out across a region of space greater than 5,000 LY, such that some fraction of it will survive an unexpected gamma ray burst anywhere in its range. What other existential threats are likely to be faced by such a civilization between that point and the heat death of the universe?</p> <p>(Yo Ethan - Consider that a possible question for a column. What purely natural existential threats are faced by an interstellar civ between time X and end-of-universe, and how might they be met? One more condition: no miracles or magic, no Singularity, no "upload" to the Borg or "post-biological life", no travel at faster than 0.2 c, etc.)</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523478&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="v264L0OsXTClHsFpg91IWRWUxSVSXAHdhYeu3tRvyxA"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">G (not verified)</span> on 12 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523478">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523479" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1386884587"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>@G #11: Quoting from the Wikipedia article, "It is for the most part a type of small dust particles which are a few molecules to 0.1 µm in size." Grain size can be determined quite well spectroscopically.</p> <p>Observations of the solar system suggest that population scales inversely with grain size according to a power-law relationship (so that large grains are exponentially less common than small ones). [Yes, I need a good citation for this, and I'm having trouble finding one. Sigh...]</p> <p>Limits on MACHO searches in the galactic halo imply a very low density of astronomically small, but terrestrially large, objects (asteroid/planet or larger).</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523479&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="FPedpPZ1aPu8XlCsCPPgJh3IrDYTL6dK1mpz-1xVdgs"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Michael Kelsey (not verified)</span> on 12 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523479">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523480" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1386893167"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>@Denier#1and#3 ... please reread and rethink Michael Kelsey #2. As so inferred above by Michael and CB, the DM DOES interact ... with itself and with normal matter through the Gravitational Force. Gravity is THE defining measure in these huge interactions. Think WEAK when discussing DM itself or it's interactions with either itself or normal matter. I believe someone mentioned WIMP.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523480&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="Y-bhD7Jlzx1jWFDWPfLEBwfl6cyhgGmWiVZa_omdTvo"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Tony Iallonardo (not verified)</span> on 12 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523480">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523481" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1386928185"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>@Michael Kelsey #8 (and all others who have chimed in): I greatly appreciate the time and effort put in to helping me understand. It is just that I don't have a grasp on how something with escape velocity, absent any interaction outside of gravity, becomes gravitationally bound. I had thought that escape velocity by its very definition meant that it has sufficient energy to escape being gravitationally bound.</p> <p>Changing the size of the aggregate whole, or the speed required so long as escape velocity is always achieved, which Ethan's piece implies is a truth of physics. </p> <p>I think it was nailed in the first sentence. I'm missing something in the kinematics.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523481&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="y_eeFdLzEKI0dEtDQ7iM1pc-op4yig9ElKJwN8vkBnM"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Denier (not verified)</span> on 13 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523481">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523482" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1386928426"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Escape velocity does mean that.</p> <p>Energy enough to escape isn't in everything. After all, the original cloud, being in the cloud rather than running away, doesn't have escape velocity. It doesn't have infall velocity either, until some energy is lost to friction (absent for DM), but that matter wasn't leaving the cloud either.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523482&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="CnZ0uIGzVUszPMuOTsGwLPbIDyn57ByGSvDVWNG17zk"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 13 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523482">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523483" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1386943177"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>@Wow #15: I'm not quite sure I follow your point on how mass in a cloud obeys the laws of physics differently than mass in a clump, but my misunderstanding has greater consequences than just ejection during galactic collisions. With my current thoughts on kinematics, no galaxies would ever have a halo of DM because every particle of DM would always have the necessary escape velocity to prevent being gravitationally bound to anything.</p> <p>Instead, what you'd have is a diffuse fog of DM that is everywhere with a density that varied inversely with the density of normal matter. In effect, space curved by the gravity of regular mass would act like the curved upper skin on an airplane wing. Particles of DM entering the gravity well of an object would be accelerated by gravitational attraction and lower the pressure density of the DM fog around the object.</p> <p>It might mathematically look like a halo from inside a galaxy, but there would be no outer edge of the halo. It would just be diffuse DM fog all the way to the next galaxy.</p> <p>People much smarter than I am have a different understanding, which means something has to be wrong with something I thought I knew. I'll just follow along and see if I can figure out where the error is.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523483&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="xlHj3QU3akgWz65sJzRafKxfxI28XDKHwbMRALtfh0U"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Denier (not verified)</span> on 13 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523483">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523484" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1386945152"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>"every particle of DM would always have the necessary escape velocity to prevent being gravitationally bound to anything."</p> <p>Why?</p> <p>Where do you get this assertion for every DM particle?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523484&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="E0CtY6knrjfEB926MfIbpBqJ-pWfRX39yfoXAomg4o4"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 13 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523484">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523485" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1386960857"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Denier: Ethan's statements about escape velocity were inexact for the purposes you're applying them to. It works fine for estimating about how fast objects will be going in one of these cosmic collisions (probably at least as well as we can directly measure their relative velocities). </p> <p>An object that starts at rest relative to a source of gravity can only get as far away from that source as it started. If it has an initial velocity, its final velocity will have the same magnitude. That's basic Conservation of Energy assuming no other interactions but gravity, as we can for stars and DM.</p> <p>But that's also assuming no other sources of gravity, too. Once there are 3 or more bodies, orbits become chaotic, and objects can gain energy relative to the center of mass at the expense of other objects. So one object can get tossed out of the system (meaning it has exceeded escape velocity), while another will move in tighter. And so you get a concentrating effect around the center of mass.</p> <p>This is how globular clusters become ever-more dense, with densities in the center that are high enough that star collisions do occur, while simultaneously "evaporating" as stars are tossed out. </p> <p>So it is with Dark Matter, which should actually be more dense closer to the centers of galaxies. Directly proportional to normal matter density, not inversely. With a small constant. You're right that because DM is still very diffuse, the 'fog' does extend far beyond the visible galaxy, out to other galaxies. Like Michael Kelsey said the entire galaxy cluster has a (non-uniform) halo of Dark Matter.</p> <p>I hope that helps explain why you'd expect Dark Matter to clump even with zero non-gravitational interactions, and why you shouldn't get hung up on escape velocity in that context.</p> <p>The flip side of the coin is that the reason DM is gravitationally bound to galaxies is because it is believed likely that the galaxies formed in DM over-densities in the first place. So in a sense it's the normal matter that became bound to the DM.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523485&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="klgJ0nReXsU68bVgcU_M8fpR_yP0D36hrHwf8W-FX1Q"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">CB (not verified)</span> on 13 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523485">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523486" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1386989068"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>It also assumes you are talking about the matter most distant from the object. But that isn't all the matter, just the bit you took for calculating.</p> <p>Nowhere does it say all dark matter (nor matter) has escape velocity.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523486&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="vQDUtqe-v85VQ8QrV2pjGaegX2Ce7fmTkP4Z7ObI5q4"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 13 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523486">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523487" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1387088597"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Denier: This doesn’t this rule out WIMPs and similar particles as DM possibilities. Perhaps I can explain it like this:</p> <p>If you fall towards the Earth you end up approaching it at 11km/s. If you've got two Earths falling towards each other, they each end up approaching at 11km/s, and their closing speed is 22km/s. The two Earths together make a bigger mass. If you were on one but jumped aside at the last moment, your 11km/s isn't enough to escape the bigger mass. </p> <p>That said, there isn't really anything that "rules in" WIMPs and similar particles as DM possibilities. There's an assumption that dark matter consists of exotic particles, but no actual evidence. I think it's inhomogeneous vacuum energy myself, but sadly this doesn't get much airtime. See <a href="http://arxiv.org/find/grp_physics/1/ti:+AND+inhomogeneous+cosmology/0/1/0/all/0/1">arXiv</a>.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523487&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="67syrblwoDHz-VMjft1077hQGDBD_JLtKoUTwp-N3rc"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">John Duffield (not verified)</span> on 15 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523487">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523488" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1387144785"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>@John Duffield #20: It's not obvious to me that inhomogeneous cosmology does anything about replacing drark matter. All it does, as near as I can tell, is do a better job at modelling the spatially varying curvature due to (assumed!) matter distributions. </p> <p>That means that it's great for getting a better handle on how large scale structure evolves, but doesn't do diddly squat for telling you want that structure contains.</p> <p>As a particle physicist, and one currently involved in a direct-detection experiment (SuperCDMS), I quite agree with you that there is *NO* observational evidence (yet :-) ) for dark matter being WIMPs, axions, or anything else specific. </p> <p>The arguments follow two branches, one based on essentially the consistency and completeness of physics (i.e., "everything else is made of quanta, so DM must be"), and the other based on looking under the lamp post (i.e., we know how to build an experiment to detect WIMPs/axions/whatever, so that's what we're going to look for).</p> <p>If we find a confirmed signal, that will tell us we're on the right track, and can shift from "what is it" to "how does it work". If we find nothing (and the next generation of proposed experiments can get us below the minimum possible cross-section limits), then we know our "completeness" argument is wrong.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523488&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="hZJV1gR_1TH9y3Ik2Vf7ml6sPsEya8v1pAx2B1T-_ck"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Michael Kelsey (not verified)</span> on 15 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523488">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523489" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1387310754"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Michael, thanks for the quick reply @ 12, and apologies for my slow reply here. </p> <p>Interesting that the objects follow a power law relationship as to sizes. Even though the human-relevant sizes are rare, we still need to build a viable space defense, starting now, so it's fully operational &amp; well-tested on harmless objects before it encounters a potentially dangerous one.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523489&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="bN282dpwLXO6tAGjivmAG8e5zThRJNViz5HWTeoXURM"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">G (not verified)</span> on 17 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523489">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523490" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1387333169"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>A power law is inevitable, really.</p> <p>One thing wallops into another and breaks up into two pieces, both necessarily smaller than the original, and expected value of half the size of the original.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523490&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="pNBHnascEP24RtL0RMLbsGUW_SL5eKeSvHsKKbvKeBI"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 17 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523490">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523491" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1387380638"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>@Wow #23: I have some hesitation about your "explanation" for the power-law distribution of asteroid sizes. You're not wrong, but I think you've oversimplified. A majority of small solar system objects are, we believe, primordial accretions (i.e., planetesimals), not the result of collisions. </p> <p>I'm pretty sure that, as you say, a power law is almost inevitable if you have repeated collision events (though the 50-50 breakup case is actually quite unlikely, see the distribution of fission fragments from U-235, for example).</p> <p>I'm not entirely sure you can claim the same mathematical inevitability for accretion. I suspect that the local environment and physics kick in early enough to prevent a multi-order-of-magnitude distribution (which you need in order to observe a power law vs. just linear).</p> <p>We don't have any good accretion models to span the gap between ~cm size clumps of dust, up to ~km size planetesimals. Such a model could predict a power law, but it could just as easily not.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523491&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="sXBt_gZzZsRnviFzceJpdFPt_3l0zh8lrLXRI9iFNCE"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Michael Kelsey (not verified)</span> on 18 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523491">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523492" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1387384792"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>@ Denier #16 ... So, young man, it would seem to an untrained mind such as mine, that whoever you were discussing 'Escape Velocity' of a group of specific particles, or simply an individual particle with, he or she left you without insuring you had a solid grasp of the relationship between a particle at escape velocity, and the 'object' from which you infer it must be escaping.</p> <p>It works as such ( or reasonably close for purposes of this conversation): if EV&gt;11.18 km/s to escape a body with the mass of 1 Earth (approx 5.974E24 Kg), then EV must &gt; 617.6 km/s to escape a body with the mass of the Sun (approx 1.989E30 Kg).</p> <p>So please understand that a particles escape velocity is directly related to the mass of the object from which it is attempting (allegorically) to esape. Therefore, one must have at least a few defined variables to correctly discuss "Escape Velocity" - Mass (in grams) of the body to be escaped, the distance in meters between the two 'Objects' i.e; the Earth and the Particle (say a Proton), and figuring in for the Mass of both the Solar Syatem and the Mass of the Milky Way Galaxy, along with a few other seemingly unimportant values.</p> <p>Again Sir, a particles "Escape Velocity" is only relevant when certain other 'things" are brought to bear such as the relative Masses and Distances of those objects being discussed.</p> <p>:)</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523492&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="-CN_zVXxeSYxMpCNH4hrlB6U6S8SULrn9dt6AbpNnBA"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Tony Iallonardo (not verified)</span> on 18 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523492">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523493" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1387393842"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>@Tony #25: I'm pretty sure Denier understood that. The context for his question was specifically the topic of this blog -- the collisions of galaxies and galactic clusters. In that case, the masses involved are much, much larger than Earth's mass, as I am sure that you are keenly aware.</p> <p>What is more, as I explained in my reply to him, the objects involved in these collisions are generally bound gravitationally into larger assemblages Thus, their collisional speeds are not really either object's own escape velocity, but rather the orbital speed they have in that larger assemblage.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523493&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="0GCFQRwAd9rfN_bkyQly5ccPQet24Oy_puQC4GoVo5o"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Michael Kelsey (not verified)</span> on 18 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523493">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523494" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1387421619"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>"@Wow #23: I have some hesitation about your “explanation” for the power-law distribution of asteroid sizes. You’re not wrong, but I think you’ve oversimplified."</p> <p>Indeed a few seconds thought would have ponderment about rates of collision in a power law realm already set up.</p> <p>Simplification, however, lets you know what the first step is.</p> <p>It gives the broad picture.</p> <p>My simple explanation gives a power law of order 2. This is not the power law actually observed. But to get that other order, you need to do some calculation.</p> <p>However, their method is generally something very similar, just with more effects included and accounted for.</p> <p>And note: Fission isn't a breakup from collision.</p> <p>And second note: no, if all states are equally valid results, the average is exactly half way. Down to a few score atoms, the indivisibility of matter doesn't, pun unintended, matter. It is why fission is no counter.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523494&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="Kwofca0O4axOl-wfruZ7TWeZFOCPbfjmLAmUePxottA"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 18 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523494">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523495" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1387421673"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>"I’m not entirely sure you can claim the same mathematical inevitability for accretion."</p> <p>Never tried to do so.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523495&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="sOkolbu1S5KeJ3FxLBAwsY0pPczd-37i5gmdwZNMUUE"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 18 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523495">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523496" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1387445135"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>@Wow #27: It sounded to me like you were suggesting that the power-law observed for small solar-system objects was due _entirely_ to collisional breakup (which would be an oversimplification). Sorry for misunderstanding.</p> <p>You wrote that you didn't like my analogy between collisional fragmentation and fission. You're right that fission is not truly collisional in detail, but it can be modelled relatively well as a billiard-ball collision between a neutron and a large, fragile nucleus (sort of like a BB hitting a glass marble). As you say, "Simplification lets you know what the first step is. It gives you the broad picture."</p> <p>I think you'll discover that in collisional fragmentation, all sizes are _not_ equally likely. The exact distribution depends on the relative masses of the colliding objects. Since there are more small than large ones, the majority of collisions will be smaller objects impacting larger objects. You can see this most clearly if you consider the size ratio, rather than absolute sizes: since the distribution is a power law, you should see most of the collisions being M -&gt; 2M (or whatever the scale height is).</p> <p>Suppose the collision is fast enough to cause full melting of both systems (i.e., rather than an impact crater). In that case, you have a net system 3M, and even if we take your "equal split", then you get two fragments of 1.5 M, which isn't half of the original target. In reality, what you'll usually get, just from angular momentum considerations, is a big blob with a small blob thrown off.</p> <p>Like I said, I _don't_ think you were wrong, nor do I think your comments in #27 were wrong. I'm pointing out a few of the "more effects included and accounted for" which make this a relatively hard problem.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523496&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="hSbU6g8n6cGtdXIDnouV8hvrjYkgsnTHxdkEXi_yH_o"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Michael Kelsey (not verified)</span> on 19 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523496">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523497" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1387450557"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>"You’re right that fission is not truly collisional in detail"</p> <p>It's more that the chances of fission resultants are nowhere near even, Michael. Worse, not all lighter atoms are available in a fission scenario. More problematical are that they will often self-fission again, with the same problems of inhomogeneity.</p> <p>To simplify to a collisional breakup would be to simplify it quite a long way beyond "simple enough".</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523497&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="kAA4NkHSyvKuV8YZfJges-HINPbNYVrapOMSSLztOmM"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 19 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523497">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523498" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1387660508"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>@Wow #30: You wrote, "It’s more that the chances of fission resultants are nowhere near even." Yes, exactly so! In fact, the distribution is very clearly double-peaked, with maxima at around the 1/3 and 2/3 masses (for U-23x, around 85 and 170). Which was one of the reasons I brought it up as an analogy. In large body collisions, the same thing applies, though of course the distribution is different: you don't get a flat spread of possible fragment masses, but a peak around small-ish stuff, and another peak around big residues.</p> <p>The underlying physics behind the two cases are vastly different, and the two distributions have quantitatively different shapes, but the _qualitative_ (i.e. argument from analogy) outcomes are not dissimilar.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523498&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="aQkJEp80fiy4srebgX2kyNwQhqnYw87an3Ne4r-OwwU"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Michael Kelsey (not verified)</span> on 21 Dec 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523498">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523499" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1389387453"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>@Wow: There's a new preprint out on arXiv (<a href="http://arxiv.org/abs/1401.1813">http://arxiv.org/abs/1401.1813</a>) which is relevant to our discussion above on the size distribution of asteroids. Thought you might be interested, so I'm posting here.</p> <p>In particular, their Figure 2 shows that the true distribution (magenta boxes) is only a (rough) power law above about 1 km diameter. Below that, there is a steep cutoff, with smaller bodies down by three orders of magnitude! I'm fairly suspicious that this is a consequence of observational bias, rather than being a real effect.</p> <p>The different models they study for generating the distribution (the blue and green points) both track the data above 1 km (probably because they are tuned to do so), but follow the kind of power law you and I were asserting below that. Good to know my (our) physics intuition isn't completely screwed up :-)</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523499&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="C9HlRkZdyGLLS4E-O2WeLZ477tWlSR9nW0xlqBMbLKM"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Michael Kelsey (not verified)</span> on 10 Jan 2014 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523499">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1523500" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1395895049"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>I referenced this past article after seeing the recent third episode of "Cosmos". In this episode, there was a similar and even more outstanding simulation of Andromeda and our Milky Way colliding. The photos in this article and the linked ones in Wikipedia of multiple galaxy collisions are eye opening and even more amazing! Thank you Ethan.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1523500&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="B7wo7KG4FQWcSL4aljIB4FpWWHzL397XRWWhj2P6nDM"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Dimitri Poppeliers (not verified)</span> on 27 Mar 2014 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1523500">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> </section> <ul class="links inline list-inline"><li class="comment-forbidden"><a href="/user/login?destination=/startswithabang/2013/12/11/the-largest-trainwrecks-in-the-universe%23comment-form">Log in</a> to post comments</li></ul> Wed, 11 Dec 2013 17:46:49 +0000 esiegel 35748 at https://www.scienceblogs.com What does the Universe look like as seen from its most distant galaxy? https://www.scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2013/09/05/what-does-the-universe-look-like-as-seen-from-its-most-distant-galaxy <span>What does the Universe look like as seen from its most distant galaxy?</span> <div class="field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field--item"><blockquote><p>"One sees qualities at a distance and defects at close range." -<em>Victor Hugo</em></p></blockquote> <p>A couple of weeks ago we took a look at <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2013/08/23/the-most-distant-galaxy-in-the-universe/">the most distant galaxy</a> (so far) in the known Universe, a galaxy so far away that it takes exclusively infrared observations from our most power space telescopes (Hubble and Spitzer) in order to detect it. What's perhaps even more remarkable is that the light we <em>do</em> detect from it -- the light we detected in the infrared -- was actually emitted <em>in the Ultraviolet</em> part of the spectrum!</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/09/Hudf09z10nl.png"><img class="size-medium wp-image-29173" alt="Image credit: NASA, ESA, Garth Illingworth (University of California, Santa Cruz) and Rychard Bouwens (University of California, Santa Cruz and Leiden University) and the HUDF09 Team." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/09/Hudf09z10nl-600x600.png" width="600" height="600" /></a> Image credit: NASA, ESA, Garth Illingworth (University of California, Santa Cruz) and Rychard Bouwens (University of California, Santa Cruz and Leiden University) and the HUDF09 Team. </div> <p>It's only the vast expansion-and-redshift of the Universe that has taken place, along with the fact that the light has been traveling for some 13.4 billion years, that allow us to observe it as we do. Considering that the Universe itself is only 13.8 billion years old, we're not just looking a vast distance across the cosmos when we look at this galaxy, we're also taking a tremendous glimpse <em>back in time</em>.</p> <p>I don't know about you, but I can't help but wonder what we'd see if we were somehow (and don't worry about <em>how</em>) located in that distant galaxy, and looked out into the Universe from there.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/09/DaveMorrow.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-29174" alt="Image credit: Dave Morrow, ©2013 OneBigPhoto.com." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/09/DaveMorrow-600x386.jpg" width="600" height="386" /></a> Image credit: Dave Morrow, ©2013 OneBigPhoto.com. </div> <p>No matter what, you'd be living within a galaxy (or proto-galaxy), and would see a night sky filled with all the stars from within it. But what would you see <em>in detail</em>, and what would you find when you looked <em>beyond</em> your own galaxy? There are two different answers, depending on how you interpret this: an interesting one and an <em>incredibly</em> interesting one. Regular-interesting first.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/09/supercls.gif"><img class="size-medium wp-image-29175" alt="Image credit: Richard Powell of http://www.atlasoftheuniverse.com/." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/09/supercls-600x562.gif" width="600" height="562" /></a> Image credit: Richard Powell of <a href="http://www.atlasoftheuniverse.com/">http://www.atlasoftheuniverse.com/</a>. </div> <p>Let's imagine that <em>instead</em> of evolving here, in our Milky Way, second largest galaxy in our local group, a small group of galaxies some 50-60 million light years from the core of the Virgo Supercluster, a minor overdensity among many superclusters in the large-scale structure of the Universe, we evolved <em>over there</em>. Over where we see <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UDFj-39546284">UDFj-39546284</a>, the current record-holder for most distant galaxy.</p> <p>What would we see?</p> <p>In some ways, it'd be very similar to our current view today.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/09/sculptor-wall-of-galaxies4.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-29178" alt="Image credit: 2MASS, IPAC / Caltech and UMass." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/09/sculptor-wall-of-galaxies4-600x479.jpg" width="600" height="479" /></a> Image credit: 2MASS, IPAC / Caltech and UMass. </div> <p>We'd still live in a Universe that was 13.8 billion years old, we'd still live in a Universe with the same proportions of dark matter, dark energy, normal matter and radiation, we'd still live in a Universe where matter clumped and clustered according to the same laws and patterns that we observe today, a Universe with the same spectrum of fluctuations and the same temperature spectrum (at 2.73 K) as our own observed <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2013/06/19/5-facts-you-probably-dont-know-about-the-cosmic-microwave-background/">cosmic microwave background</a>. And we would still see a huge variety of star types, planets, star clusters, globular clusters and galaxies right in our own backyard. Those large-scale things would be the same.</p> <p>But some important details would be <em>very</em> different.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/09/CMB_ESA.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-29176" alt="Images credit: ESA and the Planck Collaboration (top), ESA, of a simulation (bottom)." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/09/CMB_ESA-600x604.jpg" width="600" height="604" /></a> Images credit: ESA and the Planck Collaboration (top), ESA, of a simulation (bottom). </div> <p>For one, the Cosmic Microwave Background would have a completely different pattern of hot-and-cold spots across the sky. The temperature pattern we see here-and-now is specific both to our location <em>and</em> to our present time; at any other location and at any other time (in increments of about 117,000 years or at distances differing by about 117,000 light-years), the pattern we'd see would be completely unrelated to the pattern that's there now. Yes, it would have the same <em>spectrum</em> of fluctuations, but the individual details of where it's hot and where it's cold would bear no resemblance to our own.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/09/M60HST.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-29177" alt="Image credit: NASA / ESA / Hubble Space Telescope (STScI/AURA)." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/09/M60HST-600x1486.jpg" width="600" height="1486" /></a> Image credit: NASA / ESA / Hubble Space Telescope (STScI/AURA). </div> <p>For another, the proto-galaxy we see now, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UDFj-39546284">UDFj-39546284</a>, is very likely going to evolve into a giant elliptical galaxy over time, one of the largest and most massive galaxies in its neighborhood. Being inside a giant elliptical (like <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2013/02/04/messier-monday-the-gateway-galaxy-to-virgo-m60/">Messier 60</a>) would cause the sky to appear very different from how it appears inside of our Milky Way, and that would be a huge difference for practically all <em>non</em>-extragalactic observations.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/09/Wolfram-Freudling.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-29179" alt="Illustration credit: ESA / Wolfram Freudling (ESO)." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/09/Wolfram-Freudling-600x348.jpg" width="600" height="348" /></a> Illustration credit: ESA / Wolfram Freudling (ESO). </div> <p>And if we looked in the exact <em>opposite</em> direction from where we look to see this galaxy today <em>from</em> that galaxy, we'd be looking back at our own Milky Way. What would we see? Most probably, a very faint collection of small proto-galaxies all <em>much</em> tinier than the Milky Way is today. The Milky Way most probably evolved through a series of mergers of smaller galaxies, many of which are quite ancient. We'd need significantly improved telescope technology over even the largest of what exists today to be able to detect anything at all, but if we could, we'd see hundreds of small proto-galaxies and probably thousands (or even tens-of-thousands) of globular clusters surrounding what will eventually become the Milky Way.</p> <p>And that's the <em>less</em> interesting question-to-answer.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/09/690958main_p1237a1.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-29180" alt="Image credit: NASA; ESA; G. Illingworth, UCO/Lick Observatory and the University of California, Santa Cruz; R. Bouwens, UCO/Lick Observatory and Leiden University; and the HUDF09 Team." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/09/690958main_p1237a1-600x523.jpg" width="600" height="523" /></a> Image credit: NASA; ESA; G. Illingworth, UCO/Lick Observatory and the University of California, Santa Cruz; R. Bouwens, UCO/Lick Observatory and Leiden University; and the HUDF09 Team. </div> <p>Because the <em>more</em> interesting one is to answer what would the Universe look like <strong>not</strong> if we were at that location 13.8 billion years after the Big Bang, but what if we were (somehow) at that location <strong>as it appears to us from our vantage point today</strong>, or back when the Universe was a mere 370 million years old: just 2.6% of its current age. Above is the <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hubble/science/xdf.html">Hubble eXtreme Deep Field</a>, our present deepest view of the Universe. When we stare out into the abyss of darkness now, away from all known galaxies, this is what shows up with a long enough exposure.</p> <p>If we were capable of bypassing the stars in the protogalaxy that is <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UDFj-39546284">UDFj-39546284</a> as it was when the Universe was 370,000,000 years old, know what we'd see? Something like this.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/09/Mod.jpg"><img class="size-full wp-image-29181" alt="Image credit: Wyldsoul of deviantART (original), highly modified by me." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/09/Mod.jpg" width="600" height="480" /></a> Image credit: Wyldsoul of deviantART (original), highly modified by me. </div> <p>Outside of the stars in our own (proto-)galaxy, there would be very little else to see. That <em>isn't</em> because the Universe isn't full of stars and proto-galaxies at this time; it totally is. It's because the Universe is still <em>full</em> of neutral, light-blocking gas-and-dust, and except for a few close, ionized regions, most of the Universe is not yet transparent to visible light. It takes many generations of stars (and close to a billion years) to completely reionize the Universe; at the time that we're seeing this current record-holder, the Universe is not nearly reionized yet. It's like running the video, below, and stopping it at the 0:26 timestamp.</p> <p></p><center> <iframe src="//www.youtube.com/embed/Xo80l5c2pGY" height="450" width="600" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0"></iframe><p></p></center>The Cosmic <em>Microwave</em> Background? No way! At that early time, the temperature of what <em>we</em> know at the CMB would be a relatively toasty 35 Kelvin, or enough to bump it all the way up into the infrared portion of the spectrum! The same wavelengths that the Herschel Space Telescope saw -- to examine star-forming gas -- would be deluged with relic, primeval light from the young Universe! <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/09/hobys_rosette.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-29182" alt="Image credit: ESA / Herschel Space Telescope." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/09/hobys_rosette-600x337.jpg" width="600" height="337" /></a> Image credit: ESA / Herschel Space Telescope. </div> <p>The average density of the Universe would be about <strong>2100 times</strong> the density it is today; practically every direction we looked in would have a tremendous amount of light-blocking dust. Bok globules, like the black cloud (<a href="http://www.eso.org/public/images/eso9924a/">Barnard 68</a>) below, would be incredibly <em>more</em> effective at screening background light, and would exist in almost all directions from your point-of-view.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/09/eso9924a.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-29183" alt="Image credit: ESO." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/09/eso9924a-600x599.jpg" width="600" height="599" /></a> Image credit: ESO. </div> <p>And worst of all, everything that we <em>could</em> see would appear to be receding from us at an <strong>incredible</strong> rate. You think the Universe is expanding quickly today? <strong>Peanuts!</strong></p> <p>Our expansion rate today means that for every Megaparsec (about 3,000,000 light years) distant an object is, on average, it appears to speed away from us at some 67 km/sec.</p> <p>Back in the day? At the location of this galaxy? For every Megaparsec an object is distant from us, it recedes at about <strong>1,700 km/sec</strong>, or about 0.6% the speed of light. Fun, right, I know!</p> <p>But there's one part that's the most fun, at least, for me.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/09/univcmp.gif"><img class="size-full wp-image-29184" alt="Image credit: János Rohán of http://astrojan.hostei.com/." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/09/univcmp.gif" width="600" height="398" /></a> Image credit: János Rohán of <a href="http://astrojan.hostei.com/">http://astrojan.hostei.com/</a>. </div> <p>Dark energy would be such a tiny component of the Universe's energy density -- something like 0.1% -- that it would be completely undetectable! Normal matter, dark matter and radiation would dominate everything we saw, and the effects of dark energy would be completely unseen, and will remain so for <strong>billions</strong> of years.</p> <p>And that's what the Universe would look like from the perspective of our current record-holder for most distant galaxy!</p> </div> <span><a title="View user profile." href="/startswithabang" lang="" about="/startswithabang" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">esiegel</a></span> <span>Thu, 09/05/2013 - 11:33</span> <div class="field field--name-field-blog-tags field--type-entity-reference field--label-inline"> <div class="field--label">Tags</div> <div class="field--items"> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/astronomy-0" hreflang="en">Astronomy</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/dark-energy" hreflang="en">dark energy</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/dark-matter" hreflang="en">Dark Matter</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/galaxies" hreflang="en">Galaxies</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/gravity" hreflang="en">gravity</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/physics" hreflang="en">Physics</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/stars" hreflang="en">Stars</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/bok" hreflang="en">bok</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/distance" hreflang="en">Distance</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/dust" hreflang="en">dust</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/extreme-deep-field" hreflang="en">extreme deep field</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/galaxy" hreflang="en">galaxy</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/gas" hreflang="en">gas</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/globule" hreflang="en">globule</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/hubble" hreflang="en">Hubble</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/ionize" hreflang="en">ionize</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/neutral" hreflang="en">neutral</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/record" hreflang="en">record</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/reionization" hreflang="en">reionization</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/udf" hreflang="en">UDF</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/galaxies" hreflang="en">Galaxies</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/stars" hreflang="en">Stars</a></div> </div> </div> <section> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1521617" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1378404739"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>@Ethan: what is the 117,000 (light)year scale you mention? Is that the "wavelength" of the baryon acoustic oscillations?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1521617&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="ItakMoN-PL6E__ETcDZmkb3q4bTop_Tmhzzss3IP62M"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Michael Kelsey (not verified)</span> on 05 Sep 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1521617">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1521618" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1378405384"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>The rate of stellar birth would have been astronomical (sorry). There would have been a lot of super-giant first- and second-generation stars around for excitement as well. Extragalactic wonders may have been in short supply, but the local skies must have been very impressive.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1521618&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="El4uRhtXpJ65VXftFCoxFxmazGJ74Bb5h0kWA5C1eko"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Hephaestus (not verified)</span> on 05 Sep 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1521618">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1521619" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1378412762"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>I read that 117, 000 years as a turbulence life sufficient to obliterate all known recognizeable features in the cloud of background radiation. Is that right?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1521619&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="4xr95TuPcjaDdKH3lluddSHFZdRxFY77akofb0XPSm8"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Christopher (not verified)</span> on 05 Sep 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1521619">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="33" id="comment-1521620" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1378414751"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Michael @1,</p> <p>That is the physical size of the thickness of the surface of the Cosmic Microwave Background. We say that the surface of last scattering is from when the Universe was 380,000 years old, but in reality that surface covers a large volume, redshift-wise. In reality, the photons that make up the CMB surface scattered last over a wide range of times, dependent on many features, and the thickness of where they come from is the 117,000 year figure.</p> <p>The vast majority of structure, on CMB scales, is far <i>smaller</i> than 117,000 light-years, but the reason I chose that amount in time (or motion, in distance) is because those surfaces -- from what one sees here and now versus elsewhere or else<i>when</i> -- will no longer have anything to do with one another. So you wouldn't be seeing any of the same features, except for the absolute largest features in the Universe.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1521620&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="rYT1BJvz-Ezy4qUq08JI_nIwN-HIy9JjdtGV-bqTYBg"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/startswithabang" lang="" about="/startswithabang" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">esiegel</a> on 05 Sep 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1521620">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/startswithabang"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/startswithabang" hreflang="en"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/pictures/pastey-120x120_0.jpg?itok=sjrB9UJU" width="100" height="100" alt="Profile picture for user esiegel" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1521621" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1378451041"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Thanks, Ethan! I knew the CMB wasn't "instantaneous", but I don't think I realized just how long the recombination took. It makes sense, of course, that once there had been some expansion, the now-causally-disconnected regions could have substantially different cooling rates.</p> <p>Your conversion of that into a scale on which the CMB structure would be uncorrelatedly different makes sense to me. And this also finally clarifies for me why we can't identify any of the fine-grained structure in the CMB with large-scale structures we see today.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1521621&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="-ipEfUsxlIfmHbq_TBG_yDpKWpxZmHDJrNbAgwDBrsI"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Michael Kelsey (not verified)</span> on 06 Sep 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1521621">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1521622" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1378460792"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Ethan: You said this: "And if we looked in the exact opposite direction from where we look to see this galaxy today from that galaxy, we’d be looking back at our own Milky Way".</p> <p>What if we looked the opposite way to that? What would we see? And if we kept looking, but were in that galaxy as it is now, what would we see?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1521622&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="yNdtXh9IXbnS_zPv1AtEWRFThlw3AUu8TRYxMJ7xaWE"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">John Duffield (not verified)</span> on 06 Sep 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1521622">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1521623" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1378690170"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>There would have come a time at which dark energy became detectable just above the level of statistical noise. Oh to be a proverbial fly on the wall of some far-away astronomy conference when this subject first came up!</p> <p>Which raises the question: are there any features of the universe as we observe it today, that appear to be difficult to distinguish from noise, but could become analogous to "dark energy" at some point in the distant future: increasing to the point where they have to be accounted for in theory?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1521623&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="cPVfKpZJbtNj8FWCuUvxAZQex9HR4OnDCOUKjOX13_Q"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">G (not verified)</span> on 08 Sep 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1521623">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1521624" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1378711625"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>I was wondering the same question as John. If we took a hubble deep field pointing away from the Milky Way, would we see empty cosmos? Or would it be deepfields/turtles, all the way down?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1521624&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="Lug34gcmFnHpKtkOuFYWEjJ5bx3t1CJ_mHSFj3SX4C8"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Alan Doak (not verified)</span> on 09 Sep 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1521624">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1521625" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1378862613"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Maybe you'd see some other galaxy, and then when you looked to the right and down a bit you'd see a galaxy just like it. Something like this, only a bit tidier and more obvious: </p> <p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hubble_ultra_deep_field_high_rez_edit1.jpg">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hubble_ultra_deep_field_high_rez_edit…</a></p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1521625&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="H5YbMmP0HKV4d8SlCGK7YhX_spjLLO9x4gCzY1i7-yE"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">John Duffield (not verified)</span> on 10 Sep 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1521625">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1521626" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1459389292"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Is it possible to see or predict (computer simulations) how the universe look like in the present days? (earth time)</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1521626&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="R3gUzLMDQiKGT61OGqQHcudSLl920teVzv6LqbWdPmc"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Sergio C (not verified)</span> on 30 Mar 2016 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1521626">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> </section> <ul class="links inline list-inline"><li class="comment-forbidden"><a href="/user/login?destination=/startswithabang/2013/09/05/what-does-the-universe-look-like-as-seen-from-its-most-distant-galaxy%23comment-form">Log in</a> to post comments</li></ul> Thu, 05 Sep 2013 15:33:45 +0000 esiegel 35691 at https://www.scienceblogs.com How do we see through our own galaxy? https://www.scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2013/08/21/how-do-we-see-through-our-own-galaxy <span>How do we see through our own galaxy?</span> <div class="field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field--item"><blockquote><p>"I am undecided whether or not the Milky Way is but one of countless others all of which form an entire system. Perhaps the light from these infinitely distant galaxies is so faint that we cannot see them." -<em>Johann Lambert</em></p></blockquote> <p>When we look out at the Universe, our view is pretty consistently dominated by the stars within our own galaxy. Although we know that many interesting things lie beyond -- globular clusters, individual galaxies, and rich clusters and superclusters of galaxies -- being <em>in</em> the Milky Way makes it very hard to see beyond it.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/08/skymt_payne_big.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-29011" alt="Image credit: Richard Payne, of Arizona Astrophotography." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/08/skymt_payne_big-600x592.jpg" width="600" height="592" /></a> Image credit: Richard Payne, of Arizona Astrophotography. </div> <p>The plane of the Milky Way itself dominates a large portion of the sky. What appears to be a white streak is actually the light from billions upon billions of stars whose light appears to blend together from our point of view, while the dark nebulae are actually neutral clouds of gas-and-dust that appear in the foreground, blocking the light that comes from behind.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/08/milkyway_map_color_d.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-29010" alt="Image credit: GigaGalaxyZoom, via the European Southern Observatory." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/08/milkyway_map_color_d-600x300.jpg" width="600" height="300" /></a> Image credit: GigaGalaxyZoom, via the European Southern Observatory. </div> <p>For a long time, the plane of our galaxy prevented us from seeing what lied beyond it. Termed the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zone_of_avoidance">Zone of Avoidance</a>, the Milky Way blocked some 10-20% of the night sky from view. While we were discovering a plethora of objects beyond the galaxy in all other directions, surveying the portion of the night sky that was blocked by our own galaxy was prohibitive. The light-blocking power of the intervening matter -- known as extinction -- was simply too much to overcome.</p> <p>And this would still be true if we confined ourselves to the light that our own eyes can see. Thankfully, however, we now know better.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/08/milky_way_big.gif"><img class="size-full wp-image-29012" alt="Image credit: COBE satellite / NASA, DIRBE science team." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/08/milky_way_big.gif" width="600" height="430" /></a> Image credit: COBE satellite / NASA, DIRBE science team. </div> <p>This was the very first picture of the entire sky taken in the infrared, thanks to the COBE satellite's DIRBE instrument. (And yes, the "IR" in DIRBE stands for infrared.) An even sharper view -- in more wavelengths -- has been provided by the two-micron all-sky survey (2MASS), as you can see below.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/08/epo_allsky.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-29013" alt="Image credit: 2MASS / J. Carpenter, T. H. Jarrett, &amp; R. Hurt." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/08/epo_allsky-600x300.jpg" width="600" height="300" /></a> Image credit: 2MASS / J. Carpenter, T. H. Jarrett, &amp; R. Hurt. </div> <p>As you can tell, the light-blocking gas and dust has practically disappeared, and that's no coincidence. The wavelength of light that interacts with something is highly dependent on the size of the object itself. For dust grains in our galaxy, visible light is easily absorbed while infrared passes through uninhibited.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/08/spectrum.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-29014" alt="Image credit: retrieved from Tracy DeLiberty of U. of Delaware, via http://www.udel.edu/." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/08/spectrum-600x300.jpg" width="600" height="300" /></a> Image credit: retrieved from Tracy DeLiberty of U. of Delaware, via <a href="http://www.udel.edu/">http://www.udel.edu/</a>. </div> <p>But for our atmosphere, the converse is true: visible light passes through easily, while infrared is more easily absorbed. That's why, to <em>really</em> get a handle on what's out there beyond the plane of our galaxy, we have to go to space.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/08/WISE2012-003-A-annotated-sm.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-29005" alt="Image credit: NASA / JPL-Caltech / WISE Team." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/08/WISE2012-003-A-annotated-sm-600x301.jpg" width="600" height="301" /></a> Image credit: NASA / JPL-Caltech / WISE Team. </div> <p>The warm gas actually leaves an infrared signature, as seen in green from <a href="http://wise.ssl.berkeley.edu/gallery_thesky.html">this all-sky mosaic</a> in the infrared from WISE. What's really interesting, though, is that <em>even</em> with the warm gas, we can still find out what lies behind a large amount of the galactic plane from a survey like this. In fact, if you zoom in on the region marked <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IC_342">IC 342</a> up there, you'll find a number of <em>really</em> interesting features.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/08/IC342IRWISE.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-29007" alt="Image credit: NASA / JPL-Caltech / WISE Team." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/08/IC342IRWISE-600x340.jpg" width="600" height="340" /></a> Image credit: NASA / JPL-Caltech / WISE Team. </div> <p>For starters, IC 342 is itself one of the most interesting objects in the night sky. It should come as no surprise that Andromeda is the largest galaxy outside of our own as seen from our vantage point, followed by the <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2013/02/25/messier-monday-the-triangulum-galaxy-m33/">Triangulum Galaxy, M33</a>, which also lies within our local group. But what might surprise you is that the <em>third</em> largest galaxy as seen from our location is actually this rarely-seen galaxy, IC 342, which wasn't even first seen until 1895!</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/08/IC_342.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-29008" alt="Image credit: NASA / JPL-Caltech / WISE Team." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/08/IC_342-600x600.jpg" width="600" height="600" /></a> Image credit: NASA / JPL-Caltech / WISE Team. </div> <p>Of course, when it was discovered in 1895, there were no infrared telescopes, and there <em>certainly</em> weren't any space telescopes. This galaxy can be seen in visible light, it's just <em>very</em> dim, and partially obscured. Even the Hubble Space Telescope, for all its power, can only obtain an image that pales in comparison to the infrared shots we can take.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/08/IC-342.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-29009" alt="Image credit: NASA / ESA / Hubble Legacy Archive, edited by me." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/08/IC-342-600x407.jpg" width="600" height="407" /></a> Image credit: NASA / ESA / Hubble Legacy Archive, edited by me. </div> <p>Not only does the dust obscure the visible light, but it makes it <em>extremely</em> dim. If the Milky Way weren't there, not only would this galaxy be bright and prominent, but it would also quite probably be <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_galaxies#Naked-eye_galaxies">visible to the naked eye</a>, even though it lies far beyond the local group at an estimated 10 million light-years distant. (About five times as distant as Andromeda.)</p> <p>And what's maybe even more interesting is that there are <em>tons</em> of galaxies in the Zone of Avoidance that we just missed, for <em>centuries</em>, because of this problem.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/08/IntheWay.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-29006" alt="Image credit: NASA / JPL-Caltech / WISE Team." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/08/IntheWay-600x207.jpg" width="600" height="207" /></a> Image credit: NASA / JPL-Caltech / WISE Team. </div> <p>Nearby IC 342, in the same region of the sky, you can see two prominent galaxies shining through some of the warm dust of our own Milky Way. If we zoom in, you can see a distorted spiral galaxy and a giant elliptical in far greater detail.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/08/Maffei1_2_WISE.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-29015" alt="Image credit: NASA / JPL-Caltech / WISE Team." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/08/Maffei1_2_WISE-600x776.jpg" width="600" height="776" /></a> Image credit: NASA / JPL-Caltech / WISE Team. </div> <p>These galaxies are named <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maffei_1">Maffei 1</a> (for the elliptical) and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maffei_2">Maffei 2</a> (for the spiral), after their discoverer, the Italian astronomer and infrared pioneer, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paolo_Maffei">Paolo Maffei</a>. These are two of the intrinsically brightest galaxies close by, and in fact Maffei 1 is the single closest giant elliptical galaxy to us in all the Universe.</p> <p>And yet, they weren't even <em>seen</em> for the first time until 1967.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/08/Maffei-1.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-29016" alt="Image credit: NASA / ESA / Hubble Legacy Archive, edited by me." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/08/Maffei-1-600x310.jpg" width="600" height="310" /></a> Image credit: NASA / ESA / Hubble Legacy Archive, edited by me. </div> <p>More than 99.5% of the light from these galaxies are obscured by the intervening Milky Way; if not for our unfortunate galactic orientation, Maffei 1 (above) would <em>definitely </em>be visible to the naked eye alone! Although Maffei 2 wouldn't be, it's still gorgeous and worthy of study in its own right, and <em>so different</em> in the visible as compared with the infrared!</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/08/Maffei-2.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-29018" alt="Image credit: NASA / ESA / Hubble Legacy Archive, edited by me." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/08/Maffei-2-600x309.jpg" width="600" height="309" /></a> Image credit: NASA / ESA / Hubble Legacy Archive, edited by me. </div> <p>So if you were asking yourself <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2013/08/16/what-does-the-universe-really-look-like/">what the Universe really looks like</a>, and you saw this image (below), don't be fooled.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/08/51.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-29017" alt="Image credit: Cosmic Flows Project/University of Hawaii, via http://www.cpt.univ-mrs.fr/." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/08/51-600x600.jpg" width="600" height="600" /></a> Image credit: Cosmic Flows Project/University of Hawaii, via <a href="http://www.cpt.univ-mrs.fr/">http://www.cpt.univ-mrs.fr/</a>. </div> <p>The Zone of Avoidance isn't a nearby region with very few galaxies, it's most probably a region with just as many galaxies as the rest of the Universe that just happens to be hard to see from our vantage point!</p> <p>But the detailed observations of Maffei 1 teaches us something incredibly valuable. You see, <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2013/08/16/what-does-the-universe-really-look-like/#comment-67334">there's a myth going around</a> that if you -- a human being -- were placed at a random location in the Universe, outside of a galaxy, you wouldn't be able to see <em>anything</em>. Not a single star or galaxy would be bright enough to capture with your naked eye.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/08/figure5.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-29019" alt="Image credit: 2-degree Field Galaxy Redshift Survey (2dFGRS)." src="/files/startswithabang/files/2013/08/figure5-600x359.jpg" width="600" height="359" /></a> Image credit: 2-degree Field Galaxy Redshift Survey (2dFGRS). </div> <p><strong>That's not true.</strong> While it <em>is</em> true that there are <em>some</em> locations -- like in the middle of great, cosmic voids -- for which you wouldn't be able to see anything, galaxies like Andromeda, Bode's Galaxy and Maffei 1 are abundant enough and spread out enough that the odds are at least one such galaxy (and more than that, on average) would be visible to you from any random location.</p> <p>So if you want to see what lies beyond our galaxy -- or <em>any</em> dusty galaxy -- just look in the infrared, and watch the Universe open up to you!</p> </div> <span><a title="View user profile." href="/startswithabang" lang="" about="/startswithabang" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">esiegel</a></span> <span>Wed, 08/21/2013 - 11:17</span> <div class="field field--name-field-blog-tags field--type-entity-reference field--label-inline"> <div class="field--label">Tags</div> <div class="field--items"> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/astronomy-0" hreflang="en">Astronomy</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/galaxies" hreflang="en">Galaxies</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/dust" hreflang="en">dust</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/galaxy" hreflang="en">galaxy</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/gas" hreflang="en">gas</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/infrared" hreflang="en">infrared</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/interstellar" hreflang="en">Interstellar</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/nasa" hreflang="en">NASA</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/space-0" hreflang="en">space</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/spitzer" hreflang="en">Spitzer</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/visible" hreflang="en">visible</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/wise" hreflang="en">WISE</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/galaxies" hreflang="en">Galaxies</a></div> </div> </div> <section> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1521442" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1377100095"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p><em><br /> It should come as no surprise that Andromeda is the largest galaxy outside of our own as seen from our vantage point, followed by the Triangulum Galaxy, M33, which also lies within our local group.<br /> </em></p> <p>The Magellanic Clouds whimper softly in the corner of the room, ignored by all.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1521442&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="GHP_05IY4wSUKtl5UL5l2zfleiaVcSoQyPfhem_5Ch8"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Michael Richmond (not verified)</span> on 21 Aug 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1521442">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1521443" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1377125260"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>They're a bit small as dwarf galaxies to be among the largest galaxies in our local group, mind, so they should man up and stop whining..!</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1521443&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="i7P_urbFU8PRzXWfl1r75LopI9sErL2zU-AXC6_5gDo"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 21 Aug 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1521443">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1521444" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1377128095"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Ethan,</p> <p>in this image that you posted from WISE: <a href="http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/3899/hxns.jpg">http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/3899/hxns.jpg</a></p> <p>what is that? Is that gravitational lensing.. or? Just seems an unusual shape. Or is it just gas?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1521444&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="oc9hUeXaZc0o4WMbgZ_DWm3Za1h-dTdWuluOAs0M5fM"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Sinisa Lazarek (not verified)</span> on 21 Aug 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1521444">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1521445" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1377128229"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>p.s. don't mean the green stuff :) mean the almost circular shape behind it, also seems to have a line below it.. like a tuning fork of sorts..</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1521445&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="JhLsbFSMIZ1QmekhBale06hleT6AxyrUcPfSAqZBXDk"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Sinisa Lazarek (not verified)</span> on 21 Aug 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1521445">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1521446" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1377151675"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Coincidental alignment of background stars, nebulae, and galaxies? Doesn't look like lensing to me, but what do I know.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1521446&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="rBB_RqJrk4Gpx1n1u0Ec4R69FWvLj5VMglc4YNIBf5Y"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">CB (not verified)</span> on 22 Aug 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1521446">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1521447" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1377155151"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>CB, you're probably right. Just caught my eye.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1521447&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="eJgfUHhpEu-BO73CP07BNSzS7UK6j7fc0R17oBrJd7g"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Sinisa Lazarek (not verified)</span> on 22 Aug 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1521447">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1521448" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1377175257"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>That's the problem with the eyecrometer.</p> <p>It's chock full of errors.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1521448&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="LJqR7DGsf5mCAacxd0cl4FWGzJ8yQ5Adotoq_UhN53A"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 22 Aug 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1521448">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1521449" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1377267701"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Rumour scotched...! Anyone know the max (naked-eye) viewing range for a typical galaxy?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1521449&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="qYlfXbUK30HWVhA9xBCYX-RfKdbU3k1FTiuKR_j6NfQ"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Mark McAndrew (not verified)</span> on 23 Aug 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1521449">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1521450" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1377299404"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>The biggest limitation is the areal intensity. Triangulum is very bright at ~6th Magnitude, but subtends half a degree and you'd be hard put to see it on any night by telescope.</p> <p>Light pollution also cuts that down a lot and the moon's brightness will raise the brightness of the sky beyond the discernable limit of contrast.</p> <p>If you're interested, get The Sky Observers' Atlas, ISBN 978-0-387-48537-9. It gives the visibility as contrast values for extended objects.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1521450&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="FFeDQoAr2IL_jYTwyGnds3_vQBhjH1diwj5PxDvlRJA"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 23 Aug 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1521450">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1521451" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1385019984"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>How can we have pics of our Galaxy its not like someone is out there and took a pic to show us what it looks like. Is it just a computer simulated pic of what we think it looks like ??</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1521451&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="p4zSpE4M-I7iFWZFwg2IvcXxnfkgqBGExK7M4sc7HGQ"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Daniel Strickland (not verified)</span> on 21 Nov 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1521451">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1521452" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1385023342"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>The first two pictures are, it appears, the Andromeda Galaxy, not our own.</p> <p>However, the next two are our galaxy.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1521452&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="APJmQNk13TrY6zZl-erIFnTobkC3Wawg7DIfAW5NhSI"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 21 Nov 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1521452">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1521453" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1385023472"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Note, the three following are us too.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1521453&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="4P50pRmHc9dZFpDj3cXYkhaGRMO0Dv2mh4Uf5Qh7bbs"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 21 Nov 2013 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1521453">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> </section> <ul class="links inline list-inline"><li class="comment-forbidden"><a href="/user/login?destination=/startswithabang/2013/08/21/how-do-we-see-through-our-own-galaxy%23comment-form">Log in</a> to post comments</li></ul> Wed, 21 Aug 2013 15:17:36 +0000 esiegel 35682 at https://www.scienceblogs.com Every Galaxy will have New Stars for Trillions of Years! https://www.scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2012/11/07/every-galaxy-will-have-new-stars-for-trillions-of-years <span>Every Galaxy will have New Stars for Trillions of Years!</span> <div class="field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field--item"><blockquote><p>"It's a brilliant surface in that sunlight." - Neil Armstrong</p></blockquote> <p>Indeed, all that glitters so brilliantly in the cosmos does so because of the stars that have formed throughout it.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2012/11/385241main_omega_centauri_full_full_full.jpeg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-26235" title="385241main_omega_centauri_full_full_full" src="/files/startswithabang/files/2012/11/385241main_omega_centauri_full_full_full-600x716.jpg" alt="" width="600" height="716" /></a> <p>Image credit: NASA, ESA, and the Hubble SM4 ERO Team.</p> </div> <p>Over the 14 billion-or-so years that our Universe has been around, we've formed <em>hundreds of billions</em> of stars in our galaxy alone.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2012/11/milkywaypan_brunier_2048.jpeg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-26237" title="milkywaypan_brunier_2048" src="/files/startswithabang/files/2012/11/milkywaypan_brunier_2048-600x300.jpg" alt="" width="600" height="300" /></a> <p>Image credit: ESO / Serge Brunier (TWAN), Frederic Tapissier.</p> </div> <p>Given that our galaxy is just one of <em>at least</em> <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2012/09/28/the-deepest-view-of-the-universe-ever/">hundreds of billions in the observable Universe</a>, the number of stars that have formed over our Universe's history is a tremendous number, when you add them all up.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2012/11/UDF+XDF1.jpeg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-26238" title="UDF+XDF1" src="/files/startswithabang/files/2012/11/UDF+XDF1-600x598.jpg" alt="" width="600" height="598" /></a> <p>Image credit: NASA, ESA, G. Illingworth, D. Magee, and P. Oesch (University of California, Santa Cruz), R. Bouwens (Leiden University), and the HUDF09 Team.</p> </div> <p>But one of the fun things we discover is -- by looking back at the younger galaxies in the Universe -- the star formation rate back then was <em>much</em> higher than it is now! A typical galaxy from long ago is forming more stars on average than a galaxy now.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2012/11/Sunflower_Galaxy.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-26239" title="Sunflower_Galaxy" src="/files/startswithabang/files/2012/11/Sunflower_Galaxy-600x484.jpg" alt="" width="600" height="484" /></a> <p>Image credit &amp; copyright: Tony Hallas.</p> </div> <p>This galaxy -- <a href="http://people.tribe.net/carpenternj/photos/5d5bc29f-2e82-4afa-9152-2b988cb40e9c">the Sunflower Galaxy</a> -- is typical of galaxies today. You can identify star-forming regions in galaxies from the characteristic pink glow that star-forming regions give off, thanks to their ionized hydrogen.</p> <p>Do you see how, above, there are only a few, small pink regions in that galaxy? This is a classic example of a mature spiral galaxy, where it's full of gas, dust, and stars, all clearly visible in the snapshot here, but only a few sparse regions are <em>currently</em> forming stars.</p> <p>This was not always the case for this galaxy, and it won't <em>always</em> be the case for this galaxy going forward into the future, either. Why not?</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2012/11/heic0506a.jpeg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-26240" title="heic0506a" src="/files/startswithabang/files/2012/11/heic0506a-600x450.jpg" alt="" width="600" height="450" /></a> <p>Image credit: NASA, ESA, S. Beckwith, and The Hubble Heritage Team (STScI/AURA).</p> </div> <p>Because events are going to happen that cause this gas and dust to contract and form stars. It can happen in large bursts, like due to a gravitational interaction (above), it can happen gradually over time, triggered by something like a nearby star's explosion, or it can happen in the most spectacular way imaginable: in a huge rush caused by a major merger with a comparably-sized galaxy.</p> <p>In this last case, the <em>entire galaxy</em> will become a star-forming region, and this is known as a starburst galaxy.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2012/11/heic0604a.jpeg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-26241" title="heic0604a" src="/files/startswithabang/files/2012/11/heic0604a-600x442.jpg" alt="" width="600" height="442" /></a> <p>Image credit: NASA, ESA and the Hubble Heritage Team (STScI/AURA).</p> </div> <p>Incidentally, this will be <em>us</em> in about 4 billion years, when the Milky Way and Andromeda undergo a major merger. Our night sky will look something akin to this, as our entire system of merging galaxies will be forming new stars.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2012/11/earth-nighttime-view-of-andromeda-milky-way-collison-4.jpeg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-26242" title="earth-nighttime-view-of-andromeda-milky-way-collison-4" src="/files/startswithabang/files/2012/11/earth-nighttime-view-of-andromeda-milky-way-collison-4-600x337.jpg" alt="" width="600" height="337" /></a> <p>Image credit: NASA, ESA, Z. Levay and R. van der Marel (STScI), and A. Mellinger.</p> </div> <p>But -- you may be curious -- <em>how long</em> can this process go on for? Sure, we'll form stars in great, periodic bursts when rare, catastrophic events occur, and very slowly and intermittently otherwise. But at some point, we're going to run out of the hydrogen gas that -- at one point -- comprised 92% of the atoms in the Universe. Because stars work by fusing light elements into heavier ones, at some point in the future, we'll have fused all the elements we're going to form.</p> <p>Well, here's what you <a href="http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2012-11/07/star-production-down-97-percent">definitely <em>shouldn't </em>do</a>.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2012/11/WIRED.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-26243" title="WIRED" src="/files/startswithabang/files/2012/11/WIRED-600x629.jpg" alt="" width="600" height="629" /></a> <p>Screenshot of: <a href="http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2012-11/07/star-production-down-97-percent">http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2012-11/07/star-production-down-97-…</a>.</p> </div> <p>You shouldn't, <a href="http://home.strw.leidenuniv.nl/~sobral/SOBRAL/Welcome.html">David Sobral</a>, make <a href="http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2012/11/has-creation-of-stars-and-the-potential-for-life-in-universe-peaked-astronomers-debate-.html?utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheDailyGalaxyNewsFromPlanetEarthBeyond+%28The+Daily+Galaxy+--Great+Discoveries+Channel%3A+Sci%2C+Space%2C+Tech.%29">statements like this</a> (<strong>bold</strong> emphasis mine):</p> <blockquote><p>You might say that the universe has been suffering from a long, serious "crisis": cosmic GDP output is now only 3% of what it used to be at the peak in star production! <strong>If the measured decline continues</strong>, then <strong>no more than 5% more stars will form</strong> over the remaining history of the cosmos, <strong>even if we wait forever</strong>.</p></blockquote> <div style="width: 510px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2012/11/charlie-sigh.jpeg"><img class="size-full wp-image-26244" title="charlie-sigh" src="/files/startswithabang/files/2012/11/charlie-sigh.jpeg" alt="" width="500" height="647" /></a> <p>Image credit: Charles M. Schulz.</p> </div> <p>Let me tell you something about our galaxy. Our unexceptional, unremarkable, uninteresting-save-that-it-contains-us galaxy. This guy, shown vertically so you can get a <em>good</em> look at it.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2012/11/MW_vertical.jpg"><img class="size-full wp-image-26245" title="Southern Sky Panorama" src="/files/startswithabang/files/2012/11/MW_vertical.jpg" alt="" width="600" height="6360" /></a> <p>Image credit: Alan Dyer.</p> </div> <p>Sure, with your eyes, you're going to notice mostly the stars, and -- in pink -- the small and sparse star-forming regions. But you may <em>also</em> notice the dust lanes!</p> <p>Here's the thing: if you add up all the normal matter in our galaxy -- all the protons, neutrons, and electrons -- <strong>most of it is still neutral hydrogen gas!</strong> We're in no danger of running out anytime soon.</p> <p>However, we went through intense periods of star formation in the distant past. We observe these -- in and around our galaxy -- all across the Universe as still being an ongoing thing.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2012/11/starburstss.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-26246" title="starburstss" src="/files/startswithabang/files/2012/11/starburstss-600x536.jpg" alt="" width="600" height="536" /></a> <p>Image credit: NASA, ESA, R. O'Connell, F. Paresceysics, E. Young, the WFC3 Science Oversight Committee, and the Hubble Heritage Team (STScI/AURA).</p> </div> <p>When this happens, only about 10% of the gas that made up these star-forming regions actually gets locked up in stars, with the remaining 90% evaporating and <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2012/10/01/the-lives-and-deaths-of-sun-like-stars/">getting blown back into the interstellar medium</a>, where it will someday form stars again in the future.</p> <p>Furthermore, <em>most</em> of the stars (in terms of mass) that form will eventually die in either a supernova or a planetary nebula, returning a huge fraction (perhaps half of a star's worth) of unburned fuel back to the interstellar medium <em>on top</em> of the large gas fraction that never formed stars during the initial starburst!</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2012/11/ngcpnebl.jpeg"><img class="size-full wp-image-26247" title="ngcpnebl" src="/files/startswithabang/files/2012/11/ngcpnebl.jpeg" alt="" width="600" height="812" /></a> <p>Image credit: Kunihiko Okano's Gallery; <a href="http://www.asahi-net.or.jp/~RT6K-OKN/">http://www.asahi-net.or.jp/~RT6K-OKN/</a>.</p> </div> <p>Since it's in a gravitationally bound system -- a galaxy -- it's only a matter of time and gravity, <em>neither of which are going anywhere</em>, before all of the gas eventually forms stars.</p> <p>The thing is, it's going to take a looooong time -- many trillions of years, by my estimates -- until we're out of fuel. Why's that? Because, when Sobral says "<strong>If the measured decline continues</strong>," that's his big flaw. Yes, there's an initial burst of star formation that's <em>huge</em>, and occasional bursts like that will punctuate the timeline of the Universe and dominate the measured star formation rate. But there's a slow, steady component on top of that, and as long as gas is abundantly present within our galaxy, <strong>that measured decline will not continue arbitrarily far into the future</strong>.</p> <p>And the thing is, Sobral's a good enough astronomer <em>that he knows it</em>.</p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2012/11/doublefacepalm.jpeg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-26248" title="doublefacepalm" src="/files/startswithabang/files/2012/11/doublefacepalm-600x480.jpg" alt="" width="600" height="480" /></a> <p>You KNOW better, man. You. Know. Better.</p> </div> <p>Yes, it's interesting that the star formation rate has declined, and it's interesting that it's declined at the rate we've observed. But it's not going to drop to zero any time soon, and if you sum up the total number of stars in our Universe's future, it's actually <em>far greater</em> than the number of stars that have already existed up until this point in time, a far cry from the "only 5% more than we have now" figure you may have read.</p> <p>Although we might be approaching the peak of star density within our galaxy, we can very strongly say that the vast majority of stars that will ever call our galaxy home <em>haven't been born yet.</em></p> <div style="width: 610px;display:block;margin:0 auto;"><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2012/11/quintuplet_hst.jpeg"><img class="size-full wp-image-26249" title="quintuplet_hst" src="/files/startswithabang/files/2012/11/quintuplet_hst.jpeg" alt="" width="600" height="432" /></a> <p>Image credit: Don Figer (STScI) et al., NASA, of the Quintuplet Star Cluster.</p> </div> <p>We won't live long enough to see them, either, as many trillions of years into the future is far too ambitious to count on, <em>even</em> for those of you counting on the singularity. But based on the physics and astronomy we know, there will be new stars for ages and ages to come, outnumbering even the full complement of stars that have ever existed up until today.</p> </div> <span><a title="View user profile." href="/startswithabang" lang="" about="/startswithabang" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">esiegel</a></span> <span>Wed, 11/07/2012 - 12:07</span> <div class="field field--name-field-blog-tags field--type-entity-reference field--label-inline"> <div class="field--label">Tags</div> <div class="field--items"> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/astronomy-0" hreflang="en">Astronomy</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/galaxies" hreflang="en">Galaxies</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/gravity" hreflang="en">gravity</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/stars" hreflang="en">Stars</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/cluster" hreflang="en">cluster</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/dust" hreflang="en">dust</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/galaxy" hreflang="en">galaxy</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/gas" hreflang="en">gas</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/star-formation" hreflang="en">star formation</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/universe" hreflang="en">universe</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/galaxies" hreflang="en">Galaxies</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/stars" hreflang="en">Stars</a></div> </div> </div> <section> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515732" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352313480"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>What a wonderful blog entry! Fascinating!</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515732&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="ndnXx-bAYevNYT9mch18lHoM6kfrDNHJU9HQGitD-us"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">cadmar (not verified)</span> on 07 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515732">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515733" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352328607"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Reminder of our insignificance, yet gives great reassurance that even when life as we know it ends in our neck of the universe, there is tremendous opportunity for it to arise over and over and over again. Nice post as usual and that vertical pic of the milky way is impressive to say the least. what a beautiful image.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515733&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="5xiKhs0vIKdMikh6PvstfSGDG1Dd_wvi59lwkQmq6GE"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">crd2 (not verified)</span> on 07 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515733">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515734" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352351422"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Awesome! What about the Big Rip? I mean, at scales of trillions of years won't cosmological evolution impact processes such as star formation? Also, will long-lived stars, namely M-dwarfs, come to dominate?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515734&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="sqW_sTh5QasGepb0I0ke5gy4Nr2QWcKi2oDMFU5RXME"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Rando (not verified)</span> on 08 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515734">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515735" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352351498"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>And what about black holes? Won't they tend to increase in number and mass over billions and trillions of years? Any possibility that this might compound to become significant enough to affect your projections?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515735&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="o4kYzR2zZH6nqfBlYi33EBglOfWeumF0pPMwdcRS49M"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Rando (not verified)</span> on 08 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515735">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515736" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352352586"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Our ripping apart the LMC is the cause of massive increases in the production of stars both in that dwarf galaxy and ours.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515736&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="BDUWUoltRMzuBMeqU8XR2N4RN6GExljX6YqGzj5QsEw"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 08 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515736">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515737" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352356663"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>"Every Galaxy will have New Stars for Trillions of Years!"</p> <p>All scientific predictions are<br /> 1) about the future<br /> 2) based on scientific theories<br /> 3) falsifiable</p> <p>In general a prediction is a statement about the future, based on scientific theories to which we really don't know the answer. We have an answer based on the theory; but if it has never been tested and determined by experiment or observation; thus there is the possibility of new science being discovered if the prediction is shown to be incorrect.</p> <p>The statement "Every Galaxy will have New Stars for Trillions of Years!" is not a scientific prediction; because it is not falsifiable. Such a statement can neither be used to prove or to disprove current cosmological theories; because it is not falsifiable.</p> <p>"Cloned woolly mammoth will be brought back to life in the next 10 years." is a scientific prediction because it is:<br /> 1) about the future<br /> 2) based on scientific theories<br /> 3) falsifiable<br /> <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/technology-blog/scientists-bring-extinct-woolly-mammoth-back-life-help-213757183.html">http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/technology-blog/scientists-bring-extinct-wo…</a></p> <p>"Every Galaxy will have New Stars for Trillions of Years!" is a metaphysical statement; since it is not falsifiable (at least not for a trillion years).</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515737&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="m6ax8166-7qVBxC1uSVtyf7bputaGaenPKJStr9n9sE"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">OKThen (not verified)</span> on 08 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515737">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515738" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352362928"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Well, you could be pedantic and say that all science theories are predicting the past... The theories change when the future becomes the past and the prediction doesn't materialise.</p> <p>The statement “Every Galaxy will have New Stars for Trillions of Years!” is falsifiable just like any prediction. Wait to see if it turns up or not.</p> <p>But the premise upon which the claim "95% of the stars in the universe that will ever exist have already been born" is based on faulty reasoning and curve-fitting.</p> <p>I.e. non scientific guessing.</p> <p>And the prediction, like the obverse, could be proven or disproven merely by waiting a trillion years.</p> <p>But the basis of the predictions for one exists in reality. The other doesn't.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515738&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="2bsRvHeWbSqJGmKdimInYHaghUFGBCKocSYEZm7eH1Y"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 08 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515738">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515739" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352368546"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Great blog entry and I quite liked the point that you made about *our galaxy*. But the study has nothing to do with our galaxy. It has to do with the Universe as a whole, statistically. As as a whole, the star formation rate density (which is the amount of mass of new stars produced in a given average volume) is really low compared to the past, so *on average* the total stellar mass density will not really grow that much (because there are soooo many stars already compared to the rate of formation of new ones).</p> <p>Obviously, this is a statistical observation - but you know very well that saying "humans are getting on average more obese in developed countries" *does not* mean that a particular person/(galaxy) is getting obsess. Let me know if this makes it clearer - the conclusion is for the Universe as a whole, and for an average volume of the Universe, not for a single galaxy, not for our galaxy</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515739&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="B-pVGsatADXQa3lb-itzhqY4LLihk1mvD2wachvsdKI"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">David Sobral (not verified)</span> on 08 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515739">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="33" id="comment-1515740" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352371144"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>David,</p> <p>If what you are talking about is "star formation rate density," the number of stars formed per-unit-time-per-unit-volume, I would be greatly confused. That seems like an extremely uninteresting thing to measure, as the expansion of the Universe will dominate everything unless you use comoving volume.</p> <p>If you do use comoving volume, and scale out the expansion of the Universe -- for instance, considering the galaxies within a comoving volume -- then I would imagine your conclusions change dramatically. Yes, most of the stars are old, but the once the stars that we have now burn out, that's hardly the end of "stars" in any galaxy in the Universe. </p> <p>The articles that have been written up about your research give the strong impression that we are almost done forming all the stars in all the galaxies in the Universe, a conclusion that is certainly not true. I did not mean to be critical of your research, but rather how it was picked up and interpreted by the press, as it created a faulty impression about the Universe that I sought to correct.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515740&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="cDDyPY2IBPutIUmh3gE9a1bJai-AJxYw1OOter7ZERw"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/startswithabang" lang="" about="/startswithabang" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">esiegel</a> on 08 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515740">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/startswithabang"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/startswithabang" hreflang="en"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/pictures/pastey-120x120_0.jpg?itok=sjrB9UJU" width="100" height="100" alt="Profile picture for user esiegel" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515741" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352374703"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>"the conclusion is for the Universe as a whole, and for an average volume of the Universe"</p> <p>Here's the problem in a nutshell.</p> <p>The volume of the universe is getting bigger AND stuff is falling off the edge of it.</p> <p>You also have the problem of backcataloguing: those distant galaxies are much, much, MUCH younger.</p> <p>And, moreover, were formed in the past. 10 billion years ago, those stars didn't have a universe 10 billion years old to look at.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515741&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="HyvxfpOPdDS6gR086VgUx9bD-8TRGrEZvKQ3EFt5tfQ"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 08 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515741">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515742" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352375549"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Obviously what we measure, and refer to as star formation rate density (which is a fundamental measurement of galaxy formation and evolution), is using co-moving volume (otherwise, as you say, it would be meaningless and simply dominated by the expansion of the Universe). </p> <p>The Universe is certainly not done forming stars, but it is doing it at a rate which is much lower and which has been declining continuously over the last 11 billion years. The decline measured by us allows to predict the total mass of stars per co-moving volume and compare to actual measurements of stars per co-moving volumes (from e.g. infrared light and info from the full SED): it's a really great match. So our measured decline as a function of time is able to fully reproduce the evolution of the stellar mass density (co-moving, again, of course). This encouraging "prediction"-power is what is used to extrapolate to the future: if the star formation rate density continues to decline it is very very simple: the fraction of mass formed in new stars formed at time t divided by mass of existing stars becomes smaller and smaller and smaller.</p> <p>But, of course, the complete shut-down would only happen at t=infinity. There will be trillions and trillions of new stars being formed from now to the future: but the point is that relative to those that exist (in mass) they will only represent a 5% increase in this scenario (averaged over the Universe, not necessarily valid for any single galaxy).</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515742&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="04iTyBvUnhz0BHI-W3kAZeJ2XLVHqweUjNlhWetO4qE"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">David Sobral (not verified)</span> on 08 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515742">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515743" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352378647"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>"star formation rate density (which is a fundamental measurement of galaxy formation and evolution)"</p> <p>No, collapse of hydrogen gas clouds are a fundamental measurement of star creation.</p> <p>Where there is no gas, there is no chance of gas collapse.</p> <p>Where there is no perturbation of the gas, there is little chance of gas collapse.</p> <p>There are lots of stars being born at the leading edge of a spiral arm of a galaxy. Naff all at the arse end of it.</p> <p>The density therefore is nothing to do with the rate of star creation, and you haven't even addressed what the heck you mean by "galaxy evolution".</p> <p>Unless you think that globular galaxies are older spiral galacies and the latter morphs into the former, which AFAIK is still about as well supported as Brane Theory, what on earth is galactic evolution?</p> <p>Hence I've ascribed it to the only thing that makes sense: the formation of the stars within that galaxy.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515743&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="K-SVWObUr7w6KXz9Sf6e-pzNwnNeDE3K5cZCUAjQgSI"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 08 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515743">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="33" id="comment-1515744" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352378685"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>David,</p> <p>So, where I said:</p> <blockquote><p>Because, when Sobral says “<b>If the measured decline continues,</b>” that’s his big flaw. Yes, there’s an initial burst of star formation that’s huge, and occasional bursts like that will punctuate the timeline of the Universe and dominate the measured star formation rate. But there’s a slow, steady component on top of that, and as long as gas is abundantly present within our galaxy, <b>that measured decline will not continue arbitrarily far into the future</b>.</p> <p>And the thing is, Sobral’s a good enough astronomer <i>that he knows it.</i></p></blockquote> <p>Are you suggesting that the star-formation-rate-density is going to continue to decline at the steep rate it's declined at arbitrarily far into the future? No slowing or asymptoting of the decline?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515744&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="9zAyxh9_CKfqP8tibWNpORgQIEobD4LyO0Dl1NEaFgY"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/startswithabang" lang="" about="/startswithabang" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">esiegel</a> on 08 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515744">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/startswithabang"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/startswithabang" hreflang="en"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/pictures/pastey-120x120_0.jpg?itok=sjrB9UJU" width="100" height="100" alt="Profile picture for user esiegel" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515745" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352378764"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>In short, stars form for a reason.</p> <p>And that reason is mechanistic, not statistical. It doesn't give a stuff for "star formation rate density".</p> <p>The latter is measured from the former, the former doesn't follow from the latter.</p> <p>Cause THEN effect.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515745&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="dN1X3SizesJ97qzlqJ3fpAV5tfITJlR-xjYoO1Sp7zM"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 08 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515745">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515746" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352379350"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>"...many trillions of years into the future is far too ambitious to count on..."</p> <p>I just wanna watch the collision with Andromeda, will that be OK?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515746&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="yBZ8hNG3uh1XZOswJqCPtlk7ZQ5CIwBHtzTbehDou7U"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Marshall (not verified)</span> on 08 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515746">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515747" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352384515"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Ethan,</p> <p>We can only hope to know/quantify what we can actually measure. This is what is measured: over the last 11 billion years there has been a continuous decline - that's one of the simple results coming out of the paper. No slowing down in the decline, just a continuous decline - which is actually quite simple: log(SFRD)=-2.1/(1+z) where z is redshift and SFRD is the star formation rate density.</p> <p>I realize now that most people here are thinking about the star formation history of our galaxy, or particular galaxies. That's not what this is about: it's about the Universe as a whole - the whole population of galaxies at a given time. And this is only possible because the volumes we targeted are really large and spread across independent regions in the Universe. These are volumes of about 1000000 Mpc^3 co-moving (even though we are looking at "slices" in time, these "slices" do have a little nice depth).</p> <p>Wow: have a look at a few textbooks, articles and talk with friendly astronomers/cosmologists: they will explain why statistical studies of the Universe are absolutely fundamental. That doesn't mean that individual cases and very detailed physical studies of individual gas clouds/star-forming regions are not absolutely fundamental to unveil the physics behind star-formation - of course they are, because without them any other study becomes meaningless.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515747&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="xI_13kDs22uhTsKeb1wSihG-BsjwhW165mKjpE8GFMQ"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">David Sobral (not verified)</span> on 08 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515747">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515748" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352384824"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Let me put in my 2 cents (as layman, not a professional astronomer)</p> <p>Looking at David Sobral's paper<br /> THE PROPERTIES OF THE STAR-FORMING INTERSTELLAR MEDIUM AT z = 0.8–2.2 FROM HIZELS: STAR-FORMATION AND CLUMP SCALING LAWS IN GAS RICH, TURBULENT DISKS, 2012, by A. M. Swinbank, Ian Smail, D. Sobral, T. Theuns, P. N. Best, J. E. Geach <a href="http://arxiv.org/pdf/1209.1396v1.pdf">http://arxiv.org/pdf/1209.1396v1.pdf</a></p> <p>Sobral et al's work appears to be an excellent piece of work.</p> <p>"The majority of the stars in the most massive galaxies (M⋆ &gt;<br /> ∼ 10^11 M⊙) formed around 8 –10 billion years ago, an epoch when star formation was at its peak. Galaxies at this epoch appear to be gasrich (fgas = 20 – 80%)... In order to refine or refute these models, the observational challenge is now to quantitatively measure the internal properties of high-redshift galaxies, such as their cold molecular gas mass and surface density, disk scaling relations, chemical make up, and distribution and intensity of star formation." </p> <p>See right here Sobral et al are making a scientific prediction with the words, " In order to refine or refute these models, the observational challenge is now to quantitatively measure"</p> <p>Whereas Ethan makes a metaphysical statement, "Every Galaxy will have New Stars for Trillions of Years!" Sorry Ethan and Wow, but this is metaphysics not a scientific prediction. And now I am not being pedantic; because falsifiabelity (i.e an observation that will "refine or refute (a) models" in the sense that Sobral et al's work is at the heart of a scientific prediction!!!.</p> <p>Sobral et all dare to make a real scientific prediction. They point to exactly what observations are needed to "refine or refute these models". They say, "the observational challenge is now to quantitatively measure the internal properties of high-redshift galaxies, such as their cold molecular gas mass and surface density, disk scaling relations, chemical make up, and distribution and intensity of star formation. " Very Nice. Excellent actually!!</p> <p>Sobral et all go on to say why these measurements are important. "Indeed, constraining the evolution of the star formation and gas scaling relations with redshift, stellar mass and/or gas fraction are required in order to understand star formation throughout the Universe. In particular, such observations are vital to determine if the prescriptions for star formation which have been developed at z = 0 can be applied to<br /> the rapidly evolving ISM of gas-rich, high-redshift galaxies)"</p> <p>Part of Sobral et al's conclusion is "Overall, the scaling relations we have derived suggest<br /> that the star formation processes in high-redshift disks<br /> are similar to those in local spiral galaxies, but occurring<br /> in systems with a gas rich and turbulent ISM. Given the<br /> paucity of gas-rich, clumpy disk-like high-redshift galaxies, the next step in these studies is to spatially resolve the cold molecular gas via CO spectroscopy in a well<br /> selected sample in order to better constrain the interation between star-formation and gas dynamics. Through comparisons with cosmologically based numerical simulations,<br /> such observations may begin to differentiate whether the<br /> dominant mode of accretion is via three-dimensional cold<br /> gas flows accrete from the inter-galactic medium, or from<br /> two-dimensions from outskirts of the disk as gas cools<br /> from the hot halo."</p> <p>I do not pretend to understand Sobral et al's work in the detail or in the larger context of astronomy cosmology research. But it seems mighty unsicientific of Ethan to censure Sobral et al based on what they say in the popular press rather than what they say in their published paper.</p> <p>Ethan says, " “If the measured decline continues,” that’s his big flaw... And the thing is, Sobral’s a good enough astronomer that he knows it." Ethan can you honestly say that you looked at Sobral's published research before you made this statement. "That's a big flaw if Ethan didn't, and he's a good enough scientist that he knows it." </p> <p>And I might add that Ethan's censor of Sobral et al better applies to his own imprecise popular science predictions, "If you sum up the total number of stars (or planets, or galaxies, or black holes, or microorganisms, or spatial dimensions, or inhabited planets, or poets, or books, or computers, or anything) in our Universe’s future, it’s actually far greater than the number of stars (or planets, or galaxies, or black holes, or microorganisms, or spatial dimensions, or inhabited planets, or poets, or books, or computers, or anything) that have already existed up until this point in time". </p> <p>So what exactly is the point of Ethan's metaphysics. Certainly not to "refine or refute some scientific model or theory."</p> <p>Excellent scienbtific research and predictions Sobral et al</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515748&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="BYeYm7NPggRY3klp_P4uJfDx2P18kQnn_XL09P-4NdA"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">OKThen (not verified)</span> on 08 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515748">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515749" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352423497"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>"Whereas Ethan makes a metaphysical statement, “Every Galaxy will have New Stars for Trillions of Years!”"</p> <p>Nope, it is exactly the same science as the earlier statement.</p> <p>Sobrel is reifying (or the media in describing it is doing so and Sobrel is not clarifying) the observation of an epoch of high stellar formation at a time ago and making that something real.</p> <p>Look at the moon.</p> <p>Look at the craters.</p> <p>Around the same time, the solar system was bombarded with debris and formed craters all over the system.</p> <p>Masses of the bastards.</p> <p>But does that mean we aren't seeing any craters being formed today?</p> <p>No comets?</p> <p>No.</p> <p>The oort cloud is the source of comets and the asteroid belt another.</p> <p>Still plenty where that came from.</p> <p>And so comets will continue to fall in for billions of years in our solar system.</p> <p>Sobrel may be making a scientific prediction in your opinion, but it's no more scientific a prediction than mystic meg. Just because you can see whether she's making accurate predictions doesn't make her astrology predictions scientific.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515749&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="Ob0kdBglSBIgsCHBY2_GMHC973XKMmCnC7OyGx49vuQ"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 08 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515749">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515750" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352435112"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>"I just wanna watch the collision with Andromeda, will that be OK?"</p> <p>Well the first million years waiting were the worst. Then the next million years? Even worse. After that it just went downhill.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515750&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="GcEaXNbUTkjSmcResiR_NXRnD3wKhVnqgGINYC5WWdQ"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 08 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515750">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515751" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352451698"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>To call a part of the cosmological narrative of the standard model metaphysics is not to disparage it. </p> <p>All histories of the universe as told from the prehistoric to biblical to modern times to our great great grandchildren times are in part fanciful stories that tell more about the storyteller than about the universe.</p> <p>Story tellers start out with the reasonable, the earth, the sun, the moon the seasons etc; things in the universe that have been or can be observed by any human.</p> <p>But then all stories of the universe, make necessary metaphysical assumptions. These are the things that can never be observed but that seem reasonable and necessary to tell a coherent story of the universe. And scientific story tellers are no different, scientists make reasoned metaphysical assumptions.</p> <p>Thus even though, all of the theories of science do not fit together perfectly (i.e. there are gaps in our knowledge, there is conflicting evidence, there are multiple reasonable interpretations); scientists (like other storytellers) often tell a big picture, big history, big bang story of out universe that goes from before the big bang (and may even include multiverse, bublble and other universes) right up to the present and beyond to the future (sometimes to as far "Collapse of iron star to black hole<br /> 10^10^26 to 10^10^76 years from now". And the variety of these big universe stories are many (as there are scientist telling); because each one makes a little different metaphysical assumption.</p> <p>For the fate of the universe we have open universes, closed universes, big crunches, big bounces, big freezes, cyclical universes, multiverses, extra-dimensions etc. In my mind these fates of the universe are all part of the metaphysics of cosmology. they are part of the ultimate narrative of particular thoeries (based on the same scientific evidence) but interpreted differently by some different underlying assumption (i.e. metaphysical assumption, unprovable at least yet).</p> <p>Now for me personally, I draw the line between metaphysics and physics between events that are in the observable and events that are not observable in the time range observed by scientists EVER.</p> <p>The smallest time interval ever observed is about 10^-25 seconds. (various measured quark/gluon or electron/photon emissions)<br /> The largest time interval ever observed (i.e. oldest object) is about 10^18 seconds (approximately the age of the universe)</p> <p>Thus, for me, events outside of this observed time range (10^-25 sec to 10^18 seconds) are metaphysical.</p> <p>Yes. the Planck time 10^-43 seconds, is a useful number for trying to build a GUT or some other theory; but no such event of this small duration has ever been observed. For sure, you and I can mathematically state that the sum of 10^100 time parts of 10^-100 seconds each equals 1 second exactly. but such mathematics is about a metaphysical problem; not a physical problem. And the "planck time" is such a metaphysical quantity. though I admit, one of physical interest.</p> <p>Similarly Ethan's trillions of years; I consider metaphysical. It is part of the narrative of his particular interpretation of standard big bang cosmology; but it is not part of the observation of any current scientific theory. And Sobral et al's observations may force Ethan to change his big histories narrative a bit.</p> <p>Observations constrain the big picture narratives by eliminating varies subtheories and those subtheories assumptions which can no longer be considered as reasoned.</p> <p>And to think that a current scientific theory about the universe will still be standing when and if observations increase by 3 orders of magnitudes (i.e. Ethan's trillions) or by 25 orders of magnitude (Planck time) is vewry presumptuous. An awful lot of new physics can occur with even 1 order of magnitude increase in astronomical capability.</p> <p>So that's where I draw my metaphysical line. </p> <p>Metaphysics is that part of a narrative of a scientific theory which is an necessary assumption or an unfalsifiable extrapolation of a scientific theory.</p> <p>Wow, where do you draw the line between metaphysics and physics?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515751&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="8LTB0kBWmq2_Zc5roXkVkY9HtWx1Rh8_B8RFRN3rAvA"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">OKThen (not verified)</span> on 09 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515751">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515752" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352454012"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>OK, where did I call your asertion of metaphysical disparagement?</p> <p>I called it wrong, not disparaging.</p> <p>Just because Mystic Meg, the TV Astrologist makes a prediction that you can test doesn't make Astrology science.</p> <p>This paper, as far as it has appeared to be so far, is little more than the proclamations that Israeli Air Force pilots produced more Girls than Boys.</p> <p>I.e. an interesting point.</p> <p>But devoid of context given it: that somehow genetics were being affected.</p> <p>Same here.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515752&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="UMHQgy4YnARdGYFOg2qz9o-TFnCwz33QLPVjJvQhg-A"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 09 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515752">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515753" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352454106"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Where did you make the statement other than just now that you were calling something metaphysics?</p> <p>So how can it either be relevant for me to answer a question on this newly introduced and unanchored proposition, or for you to raise it as something I have mischaracterised, given that you only now just raised it?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515753&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="-KJa7olo159Uu_uIrVS9ahmmDcJsY2sF8uMjPXmchG4"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 09 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515753">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="33" id="comment-1515754" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352468287"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>OKThen,</p> <p>I do not like your personal definition of metaphysics, in that you lump in predictions of theoretical physics that are <i>impractical</i> to observe with something that has nothing to do with physics altogether.</p> <p>I think Wow has understood my point that I am arguing: Sobral et al. have discovered the leading term in the star formation density rate in our Universe, which is an interesting measurement. On a log-scale, a simple straight line (i.e., a power law) fits the data to this point. This is:<br /> 1.) not surprising,<br /> 2.) interesting that it was measured,<br /> 3.) likely very closely related to the rate of starbursts / major galaxy mergers, and<br /> 4.) likely to continue to follow this pattern for billions of years into the future.</p> <p>But it is <i>not</i> likely that this is always going to be the dominant term. As galaxy mergers eventually cease (due primarily but not exclusively to dark energy), and as longer-lived main sequence stars die and return large amount of pristine gas to the ISM, and as galaxies continue to contain very large amounts of gas relative to their amount of mass in stars (the ratio is still greater than 1 in most late-type galaxies), other terms will take over as the Universe continues to age.</p> <p>That's not metaphysics; that's theoretical physics. It's not to decry Sobral's result, it's to decry extrapolating Sobral's result as being the dominant term for ever and ever into the future, even as that term continues to drop rapidly. If you were (somehow) around when the Universe was 100 years old, would you conclude that the expansion rate was always dominated by radiation and always would be, and that the "orders of magnitude" into the future one would have to extrapolate to have matter dominance (and eventually, dark energy dominance if you knew of it) would no longer be physics?</p> <p>Just because you won't be alive to see it doesn't make it any less physical.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515754&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="FEKk8-GXMYWEFbLU6PECM3DjQ2Ea7rjo5eiauZEYhlE"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/startswithabang" lang="" about="/startswithabang" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">esiegel</a> on 09 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515754">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/startswithabang"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/startswithabang" hreflang="en"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/pictures/pastey-120x120_0.jpg?itok=sjrB9UJU" width="100" height="100" alt="Profile picture for user esiegel" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515755" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352470490"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Ethan's explanation reminded me of the Long Tail phenomenon in online marketing.<br /> I think Ethan and Sobral are basically in agreement or at least not contradicting each other, only they're talking about radically different timescales and distances.</p> <p>My question is: how long will the merged milky way/andromeda galaxy last? By that I mean will the galaxy have collapsed into a black hole due to gravity or is the angular momentum* such that it's still happily spinning around in for example the year 12 trillion (isolated from everything else due to dark energy)?</p> <p>*) I'm not a physicist but I think this is the correct term here.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515755&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="XilHc_NgtNKhheBnz1g15716-o91rREO_dqyPcmZp9E"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Harold (not verified)</span> on 09 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515755">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515756" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352472179"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>In my mind physics theories have domains of relevance outside of which predictions can not be tested. In my mind, those ideas of a physics theory that are outside of realm of prediction/testing may be very important ideas for a theory (e.g. the singularity of general relativity); but they are nevertheless metaphysics.</p> <p>In my opinion.<br /> Inside the event horizon of a black hole is metaphysics.<br /> Outside the event horizon of the visible universe is metaphysics.</p> <p>HAVING SAID THAT, the science of physics depends on these metaphysical assumptions (e.g. GR singularities, inflation before the big bang) and tests the theories built upon metaphysical assumptions by making predictions that can be tested in the visible universe; NOT BY TESTING PREDICTIONS OUTSIDE OF THE REALM OF OBSERVABILITY. </p> <p>In my mind PREDICTIONS OUTSIDE OF THE REALM OF OBSERVABILITY ARE METAPHYSICAL.</p> <p>Merriam Webster defines "Metaphysics 1) a division of philosophy that is concerned with the fundamental nature of reality and being and that includes ontology, cosmology, and often epistemology"</p> <p>So the fact that metaphysics includes much of cosmology is not really a controversial point. Again I ask, Wow and Ethan where is your line between separating physics and metaphysics in cosmology? Where?</p> <p>Please give me your clear definition.</p> <p>As to the scientific merits of Sobral et al work, I think it is excellent work; but I defer to the opinion of his fellow professional astronomers. What is the professional reaction to their work to date. that I cannot check.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515756&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="HHRtadVY06escAqicdXAXS1Lj9xjDbi_8wtlObufSJ8"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">OKThen (not verified)</span> on 09 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515756">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515757" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352516275"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Projections can always be tested.</p> <p>The thought experiment that led to SR required something moving at light speed or nearly.</p> <p>We have tested the consequences of that projection to lower speeds. But at the time, the instruments were incapable of measuring it. Same with the precession of Mercury from GR.</p> <p>But because a projection can be tested does NOT make it scientific. Just verifiable. And just because some scientific process cannot be tested today does NOT make it nonscience or metaphysical.</p> <p>The model you have for that projection, if it is scientific, is a scientific projection, even if it can never be tested by humans.</p> <p>What sobral here seems to have is an interesting scientific fact being projected as a scientific theory. It is no more scientific a theory than "The number of deaths of cyclists on the road has increased, therefore more cyclists will die next year than ever before".</p> <p>A projection,but no more scientific than Roger Pielke's polynomial fit to climate data used to "predict" cooling "any time now".</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515757&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="FPNcdLCavqofefgAHq_8gIxbc_ANl6C9GqJccMnO0j4"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 09 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515757">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515758" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352516330"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>PS His methods and science to reach that conclusion about the age of stars and the past abundance of events seems entirely scientific.</p> <p>The projection is entirely statistical form fitting.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515758&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="BuX13dMPbXheM4on0UhTD8zn01KCKiA8k9WCZQrWi-U"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 09 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515758">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515759" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352525792"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>"Another central branch of metaphysics is cosmology, the study of the totality of all phenomena within the universe."<br /> <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaphysics">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaphysics</a></p> <p>"Definition of METAPHYSICS<br /> 1 a (1) : a division of philosophy that is concerned with the fundamental nature of reality and being and that includes ontology, cosmology, and often epistemology"<br /> <a href="http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/metaphysics">http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/metaphysics</a></p> <p>Ethan and Wow, if you don't like the definitions of "metaphysics"; then take it up with Merriam-Webster or Wikipedia. Cosmology is a part of metaphysics; this is how the words cosmology and metaphysics are still used and have been used since ancient times.</p> <p>I agree that a larger and larger portion of cosmology is what we would call hard physical science and within the modern scientific tradition of observation and experiment, i.e. falsifiability. But still a lot of cosmology (including very technical mathematical cosmology) is largely narrative and descriptive and completely outside of the realm of falsifiability.</p> <p>The history of great scientists motivated by philosophical and/or metaphysical ideas is a long and profound intellectual tradition. Two of the best known modern philosopher physicists are Einstein and Heisenberg. Einstein's search for a general relativity was motivated by "Mach's principle (or Mach's conjecture[1]) is the name given by Einstein to an imprecise hypothesis often credited to the physicist and philosopher Ernst Mach." wikipedia.</p> <p>Heisenberg of course was very involved in the development of the Copenhagen interpretation of quantum mechanics. But there are other interpretations, "According to a poll at a Quantum Mechanics workshop in 1997,[13] the Copenhagen interpretation is the most widely-accepted specific interpretation of quantum mechanics, followed by the many-worlds interpretation.[14] Although current trends show substantial competition from alternative interpretations, throughout much of the twentieth century the Copenhagen interpretation had strong acceptance among physicists. Astrophysicist and science writer John Gribbin describes it as having fallen from primacy after the 1980s." such intrepretations are metaphysical alternatives.</p> <p>Metaphysics is a word with an accepted definition. Many great scientist have no problem thinking philosophically and metaphysically and acknowledging the metaphsical assumptions and consequences of their best scientific idea. the interplay between science and philosophy is continuously at work; think Dirac's infinite sea; think anthroplogic principle, thinlk... </p> <p>So again I ask; where do you draw the line between physics and metaphysics. Think about it.</p> <p>It's kind of like asking where do you draw the line between biology and physics. There is not a hard line; it's a usage line. Biology deals with living things; physics with inanimate things. </p> <p> It's kind of like asking where do you draw the line between psychology and physics. There is not a hard line; it's a usage line. Psychology deals with internal experiences; physics with external events. </p> <p>It's kind of like asking where do you draw the line between mathematics and physics. There is not a hard line; it's a usage line. Mathematics deals abstract concepts (such as number, geometry, sets, topology); physics applies mathematical concepts to the external world. </p> <p>I know economist who think everything is economics, physicist who think everything is physics, philosophers who think everything is philosophy, comedians who think everything is comedy. And they all do make a certain point from a certain professional narcissistic point of view (that's a joke). </p> <p>“Metaphysics means nothing but an unusually obstinate effort to think clearly. The fundamental conceptions of psychology (or physics, or cosmology, or biology) are practically very clear to us, but theoretically they are very confused, and one easily makes the obscurest assumptions in this science (or any sciewnce) without realizing, until challenged, what internal difficulties they involve.”<br /> ― William James, The Principles of Psychology Vol 1</p> <p>I'm going to make pancakes for breakfast now.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515759&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="V3SZ2GIbdAwmi-4Zg0KiwZ7Q0gx4WUYIMXkT49Zw-V8"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">OKThen (not verified)</span> on 10 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515759">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515760" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352535328"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>No, I'm taking up the fact that you introduced "Metaphysics" on the very same post as you blathered on idiotically about how calling something metaphysics (which you only just there did) wasn't saying it was bad.</p> <p>I'm not arguing with Mirriam and Webster because they, very sensibly, haven't been talking complete bogshite on this topic.</p> <p>You claimed something incorrect.</p> <p>You were called out on it.</p> <p>Then you segued on to "Oh, if you don't like metaphysics..."</p> <p>BOGSHITE.</p> <p>You are not going to push the error you made off by making out you were being persecuted for talking metaphysics. You're being called out for talking bollocks.</p> <p>Just because you can test a prediction DOES NOT MAKE IT SCIENCE.</p> <p>FUCK ALL to do with metaphysics.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515760&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="CX0TM5L34L7fu1KP3iTU8uCrumsMj5ua2m9VSa37S1E"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 10 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515760">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515761" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352560478"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Wow</p> <p>You started the BOGSHITE when you said, "Sobrel may be making a scientific prediction in your opinion, but it’s no more scientific a prediction than mystic meg. Just because you can see whether she’s making accurate predictions doesn’t make her astrology predictions scientific."</p> <p>I assumed (perhaps incorrectly) that your words, "mystic meg" , and "astrology" were sarcastic disparaging metaphors to my use of the word "metaphysics."</p> <p>So I responded to your bollocks by saying, "To call a part of the cosmological narrative of the standard model metaphysics is not to disparage it."</p> <p>Obviously, I was wrong; apparently you just wanted to insult Sobral et al's scientific work. And you were apparently referring to a real TV astrologers. I did not know; I don't watch TV astrologers. Sorry if I misplaced your disparagement. Do try to write in clear unambiguous sentences next time.</p> <p>But it would be nice if your disparagment of Sobral et al's research was based on reading their paper. <a href="http://arxiv.org/pdf/1209.1396v1.pdf">http://arxiv.org/pdf/1209.1396v1.pdf</a><br /> Have you read Sobral et al's paper yet???</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515761&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="-Y-_pvEoyKqPdRGBDDgvM_QpyfuDmNCwnkVh2cCSSLk"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">OKThen (not verified)</span> on 10 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515761">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515762" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352560862"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>No, you started on the bogshite, OKThen.</p> <p>When you proclaimed: "The statement “Every Galaxy will have New Stars for Trillions of Years!” is not a scientific prediction;"</p> <p>And continued in that vein when you went on to say: "See right here Sobral et al are making a scientific prediction with the words,..."</p> <p>Because you have the completely wrong idea about science and what prediction is telling you about it being science.</p> <p>NOTHING.</p> <p>Mystic Meg makes predictions on who will win the lottery.</p> <p>NOT SCIENCE.</p> <p>Weatherman makes predictions on the weather tomorrow.</p> <p>SCIENCE.</p> <p>Prediction tells you NOTHING about whether something is scientific or not.</p> <p>YOU started with the bogshite.</p> <p>Then wibbled off on "Oh, talk to the dictionary" for reasons which can make sense only in your deranged mind.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515762&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="wKTmFIe2azEHFWXSI1h-8e4j0SIebAcsYhJLyB-izoM"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 10 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515762">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515763" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352563149"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Nothing wrong with your comments here, OKThen.</p> <p>"Prediction tells you NOTHING about whether something is scientific or not."</p> <p>- Wow</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515763&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="j0vL1T1YsrUQZqHM8EvQgFYV9NNc3JM-zyxT3QVbE0k"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Hannes (not verified)</span> on 10 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515763">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515764" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352563891"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>If you drop a stone and it is going down, it is a "projection of an entirely statistical form of fitting.".</p> <p>Newton would be ashamed, to do such a ridiculous assumption.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515764&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="pPCwSz-zPCLdrQ1rEX2FSndX0TUDExxzWvQfg0Usig8"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Hannes (not verified)</span> on 10 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515764">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515765" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352582947"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>"In science, a prediction is a rigorous, often quantitative, statement, forecasting what will happen under specific conditions... Notions that make no testable predictions are usually considered not to be part of science... until testable predictions can be made." wikipedia</p> <p>Wow<br /> Please clarify your ideas.<br /> Dare to educate (e.g. upon the place of prediction in science.)<br /> Give your perspective and insight.<br /> Put your tiresome and pointless venom aside.<br /> Can you explain in clear civil language?<br /> I am waiting.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515765&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="zONucxvRPz8EWPU9ufJx7862T0vZ8tbT2gpkgn-9VGg"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">OKThen (not verified)</span> on 10 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515765">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515766" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352601710"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Now go look up "superset" OKThen.</p> <p>Here's another one for you:</p> <p>All answers are replies, but not all replies are answers.</p> <p>Mystic meg is making predictions based on non-rigour astrology.</p> <p>Soberl is making predictions based on non-rigour (scientifically) curve fitting.</p> <p>Ethan is making predictions based on rigourous fact.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515766&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="x0vwjTeJMXTuvX9vm8eqNx9vIDfW0kPF9xvs_DbghMk"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 10 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515766">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515767" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352621598"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Ah, yes.</p> <p>But in my opinion that a notion (regardless of rigor in facts, theory and math) is not a scientific prediction; if it can't be tested. It is part of a necessary metaphysical assumption (e.g. cosmic inflation before the big bang) or of the interesting metaphysical narrative (e.g. the ultimate fate of the universe) of a theory of physics.</p> <p>My opinion on this may not be yours or Ethan's; the notion of anything a trillion years hence is to me science fiction or metaphysics.</p> <p>I accept your judgement that Sobral et al's work is based on "non-rigour curve fitting" and not as rigorous as Ethan;s thinking. And I also accept Ethan's conclusion that Sobral et al's work is " interesting that it was measured... likely to continue to follow this pattern for billions of years into the future." </p> <p>But in my opinion, Sobral's et al's less rigorous scientific prediction fits solidly inside the tradition of the scientific method; whereas Ethan's prediction is outside the scientific method. And I might add that it is outside in a way that is unnecessary and unhelpful to the advancement of science.</p> <p>Guth's cosmic inflation event before the big bang is a necessary metaphysical assumption upon which current cosmology can build a more precise cosmology (or not). i.e. does such an inflationary event set up and lead to a universe such as we observe or not and in fact lead to an imporved cosmology, i.e. one whose predictions about the observed universe are better than pre-inflationary cosmology predictions. Yes/ no?</p> <p>Ethan's prediction of 1 trillion years hence is scientifically passive. It is neither a necessary assumption (e.g. Dirac's infinite sea of fundamentally unobservable negative energy particles); nor an necessary conclusion (e.g. one that can be tested and verified or not). Of what scientific use (other than metaphysical narrative) is the discussion of new star formation 1 trillion years hence; in a world where the oldest observed measurement is 13.7 billion years? (not a rhetorical question)</p> <p>The 4 billion year hence collision between Andromeda and the Milky Way is a prediction that fits within the evidence of the 13.7 Billion years of the universe. Many galaxy collisions are recorded in the astronomical record. Galaxy collisions are within the domain of relevance of classical mechanics and classical astronomy.</p> <p>1 trillion years hence is outside the domain of relevance of any science. not just astronomy. I don't think we have the scientific rigor in facts, theory or mathematical techiques to predict anything 1 trillion years hence. (by the way, the half-life of a proton as 10^32 years is a prediction about the stability of protons measured in the universe today (not a trillion years from now).</p> <p>In my mind, 1 trillion years hence predictions are either<br /> - metaphysical extrapolations that are scientifically unnecessary (regardless of rigor).<br /> - science fiction<br /> - predictions about something in the universe today (e.g. protons half-life of 10^32<br /> - really necessary assumptions (e.g. in a cyclic universe, the future better set up the conditions of the past)</p> <p>In my mind, an unnecessary conclusion (e.g. the ultimate fate of our universe, or even 1 trillion years hence) is not fundamentally, scientifically any different than an unnecessary assumption (e.g. god). </p> <p>In my opinion, Occum's razor applies not only to unneccessary assumptions but also unnecessary conclusion (prediction). In my mind an unnecesary conclusion is one that neither becomes a necessary assumption nor becomes a testable prediction. </p> <p>Here, the idea of a unnecessary conclusion not becoming a necessary assumption (I suppose is where your superset remark applies); but I'm not sure how or if we disagree. Perhaps you can help me? Tell me where my thinking is wobbly? or Just agree to disagree?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515767&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="GkTVUpTyzIwg21etRnDWd1GBw-IELNcBCzQ1Zz-x2h8"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">OKThen (not verified)</span> on 11 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515767">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515768" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352629705"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>"But in my opinion that a notion (regardless of rigor in facts, theory and math) is not a scientific prediction; if it can’t be tested."</p> <p>And your opinion is wrong.</p> <p>This is fine. It's why science wins over religion.</p> <p>A human CAN be wrong.</p> <p>The Creator Of All Mankind? Oh, no, that's a sin!</p> <p>Your opinion is wrong.</p> <p>It's a useful yardstick, but it is really a nouveau-science abuse of the ancient ideas of Popper.</p> <p>We don't use the same definition of life as they did in those days.</p> <p>And it's not even correct.</p> <p>Wait 1 trillion years. Or bequest it to your ancestors to check up on in a trillion years time.</p> <p>Eminently testable.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515768&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="V4EOgyVZ7X4LZs4RPo4tjIFg6FFtQpLXpZCxnuYXQyA"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 11 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515768">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515769" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352661089"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>"Testability, a property applying to an empirical hypothesis, involves two components: (1) the logical property that is variously described as contingency, defeasibility, or falsifiability, which means that counterexamples to the hypothesis are logically possible, and (2) the practical feasibility of observing a reproducible series of such counterexamples if they do exist. In short, a hypothesis is testable if there is some real hope of deciding whether it is true or false of real experience." wikipedia</p> <p>Yes, I understand, "Every Galaxy will have New Stars for Trillions of Years!" is eminently testable.<br /> We just won't know if this scientific hypothesis is correct or incorrect for trillions of years.</p> <p>Rigorous scientific hypothesis testable in trillions of years versus<br /> not so rigorous scientific hypothesis but testable and refinable every 5 or 10 years? </p> <p>Hmm, it's a tough choice but I choose....<br /> the next 100 iterative results and follow on refinements of Sobalt et al type hypotheses.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515769&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="HPkOY0qIeW-o3v3YEsUsmtuctgRhK_UzY9Hmw1hbW4Q"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">OKThen (not verified)</span> on 11 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515769">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515770" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352681751"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>"We just won’t know if this scientific hypothesis is correct or incorrect for trillions of years."</p> <p>"Every Galaxy will have New Stars for Trillions of Years" is NOT the hypothesis, OKThen.</p> <p>This may be the root of your problems here.</p> <p>The hypothesis is standard stellar evolution. The consequence is that every galaxy will have new stars for trillions of years. Because the mechanism for star formation and the availability of that mechanism does not seem to be ready to stop star formation.</p> <p>As a CONSEQUENCE stars will continue to form.</p> <p>Sorbel's statement is taking the hypothesis "If we fit the star creation rates to a curve and extrapolate..." then only 3% of stars remain to be born.</p> <p>Hypothesis is not scientific. Conclusion is therefore not scientific.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515770&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="eXZFUFcuN0w5GWInpXal3N8C10X3De-aEuDZ06d_Kt0"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 11 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515770">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515771" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352688566"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Let's just keep it simple and quantitative, since that is what this post was supposed to be about, and realise that actually even in the media "version" the news are actually really quantitative/accurate. The findings mean that galaxies will, indeed have "new stars for trillion years", so, really, the arguments of this post are just a consequence of not reading the actual press release in detail/the actual paper and jumping into conclusions about this based on *some* press titles (but not contents). So let's be quantitative, show that Ethan's point is true and that it DOES NOT contradict the new results:</p> <p>- Let's see if Ethan's point about the Universe producing new stars for trillions of years are consistent with the observed values and let's make something even better: let's quantify. Let's not just say "new stars", let's have a number for it (see details of the calculation below - here are the results):</p> <p>-Let's start now, T=13.5 and take all stars formed from now to T=1013.5 (one trillion years into the future. So just take the integral of log(SFRD) = -0.14xT -0.23 (T is in billion years, but SFRD is mass of new stars per year per volume) and compare what the total number of stars predicted in a trillion years with those that exist today, per co-moving Mpc^3:</p> <p>In a trillion years: 0.520 billion "sun-like stars"<br /> Right now: 0.502 billion "sun-like stars"</p> <p>In the next trillion years: *18 million more stars will exist* per co-moving Mpc^3 when compared to today; that seems a lot, but now do the ratio between then and now: what do you get? 3.6 % more stars. Now wait forever if you want to get close to the 5% increase mentioned. So Ethan, let's just be clearer about this; why not updating the title to : "the Universe will have millions of new stars for trillions of years!", then add *but that will never be 5% more than the current number of stars that already exist! :)</p> <p>Notes on how to calculate this based on our observations:</p> <p>- Currently, there are about 0.502 billion sun-like stars (I'm using 1 solar mass = 1 star, since ethan mentioned that there would be a certain number of stars born, not a certain amount of mass in stars born) for every cubic co-moving Megaparsec. Since most people here seem to be familiar with our own galaxy, they will soon realise that you can fit quite a lot of milky ways in a cubic Megaparsec (since our galaxy occupies something like ~300 kpc^3, so something 300 thousand times smaller than a cubic Megaparsec.</p> <p>- Of course, most of the volume in the Universe is *not* occupied by galaxies, so the average cubic Megaparsec will not have that many galaxies (and that's why the average is about 0.5 billion stars per cubic Megaparsec).</p> <p>- Good! So now we know something ver quantitative, widely measured and that we can use.</p> <p>- Another thing we can measure: for a given average co-moving Mpc^3, how many stars are being born per year? This is what we have measured, using multiple large volumes at very precise look-back times (using the H-alpha emission line; quite widely used in our own galaxy and well-callibrated) so we can compare the evolution.</p> <p>- The number of new stars per year per co-moving Mpc^3 is given by (completely based on *OBSERVED* values, no extrapolations): log(SFRD)=-2.1/(1+z), where SFR is in Solar masses per year per co-moving Mpc^3 and z is the redshift. If you prefer as a function of time log(SFRD) = -0.14xT -0.23, again SFRD in the same units, but T in billion years. So it's that simple.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515771&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="8PKurkcORSI5u6qqcvDJ8-DyFPE2cyvQpJchcJ89a3U"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">David Sobral (not verified)</span> on 11 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515771">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515772" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352690944"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Richard,</p> <p>Got a mechanism?</p> <p>We have one for the inundation in the solar system that peppered many solar system bodies with humungous levels of craters. We have explanations and mechanisms for why some of the bodies do not show craters, and in some cases, a different cratering pattern over different areas.</p> <p>If you only have "looking at the stars created that we can spot..." you have correlation but no reason to predict that only 3% remain to be born. There's enough gas to create several orders of magnitude more stars to replace the ones we have.</p> <p>Over the next trillion years, that pay be 3% replenishment rate, but a thousand times that you still have 30 times as many stars, making it 3% of stars or less have already been born.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515772&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="qwby-k3ria7hDlLCGREDyCFHhIPqIWChDOIphtDyDtY"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 11 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515772">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515773" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352691060"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>In short, the claim: "If the measured decline continues, then no more than 5% more stars will form"</p> <p>Begs the question: how do you know the IF will come true?</p> <p>Really Ethan and myself are saying that that is not going to be the case.</p> <p>You might as well say "IF wishes were fishes, we'd all cast nets".</p> <p>True, but the condition is highly unlikely to be true. If it were, though, you bet we'd all cast nets.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515773&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="UsDeCqrAf_vDMVMQgdOKRL0ICcFW4uxC04oJxt0cn0E"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 11 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515773">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515774" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352691556"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>You seem to be confused: I thought we were talking about actual measurements and what the measurements tell us. As a community we do have a few mechanisms that are responsible for this, but we are still working on really understanding which are most important:</p> <p>- There is less pristine gas available now than 11 billion years ago<br /> - It is harder for gas to fall into and cool down enough to form stars in galaxies now than in the past. "Beast"galaxies have very effective feedback mechanisms which prevents them to form new stars (read about radio-loud AGN mode), and even smaller galaxies have feedback mechanisms (such as supernovae) that can put a stop to star-formation by blowing up the gas</p> <p>- Environment: as structure grows and galaxies fall into clusters/groups and dense regions, the quite violent physics happening there can really strip the gas and, even when you get a sudden "triggered" episode of star formation almost galaxy-wide, those tend to be very short-lived and feedbak mechanisms + physics of clusters are really effective at shutting them down permanently.</p> <p>- "Mass" and the dark matter haloes of galaxies: it seems like both the mass and perhaps the "shape" of the dark matter haloes which dominate the gravity profile in galaxies also plays a role in this.</p> <p>So the mechanisms are here for us to explore them - and that is what we are doing. The feedback mechanisms and the increasing difficulty of getting both the high-enough density and the sufficient cooling for gas to form stars is likely to be blamed.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515774&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="L9ZomjNC7RVNG-bSL8ciRPXidp5cZRXaU3Xme_Wen1A"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">David Sobral (not verified)</span> on 11 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515774">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515775" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352694445"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Wow: </p> <p>Come one, if you know that something has behaved in a particular way, every year, for the last 11 billion years, surely assuming that it will go on like that at least for the next few billion years is certainly more likely than saying (like you) that it will suddenly change its behaviour, unless *you* come up with an explanation of why it should suddenly change.</p> <p>Are you going to invoke new physics? New processes that *only* come into place right now? You are the one that need to provide explanations and mechanisms, because you are the one saying that things are about/will change completely: that is the only way you can break an 11 billion year old trend.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515775&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="tHrEG8m0olTBfyw5J7LhzRnLZzMKiUqDpOgXarTwjt0"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">David Sobral (not verified)</span> on 11 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515775">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515776" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352695448"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Except that's not what you're doing, is it David.</p> <p>Unless you're going to claim that the quote is incorrect or from the journalist not your work, 5% replenishment rate over the lifetime of a star still has around 30x as many stars yet to be born, not 3% left in all of eternity.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515776&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="p5cHXaXRG53XonZfGVgY0BPiP6jmJB6zBLTCwWuNDAo"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 11 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515776">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515777" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352695540"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>If a volcano erupts and you, 20 years later notice it hasn't done more than rumble since, you would NOT be right in claiming that at this rate of activity reduction, the volcano would be dormant within the next 5 years.</p> <p>Even though that "trend" when drawn out that way would indicate it.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515777&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="23OyAzcdD5UtmhsvHHqaZdGz-Tyx70Xta-TBeeq3c-s"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 11 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515777">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515778" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352699227"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Gravity has behaved in a particular way for as long as we can see. So if it continues to bahave in the same way it has, tomorrow the "sun will be up again", and that will continue for a long time. Is that a crazy prediction? Of course you don't know when the laws of physics will change...!</p> <p>But back to your argument :</p> <p>"Except that’s not what you’re doing, is it David."</p> <p>That was exactly what we did (just read the paper and a few good articles on that) - we measured the cosmic/Universe-wide average of the star-formation rate density at very different times in the history of the Universe. This is how much star formation is occuring in an average large volume of the Universe. And to get that we of course observed large volumes over completely independent regions of the Universe, each containing 100-1000s galaxies.</p> <p>That was what we measured and we measured it for various look-back times. </p> <p>No-one's talking about replenishments or lifetimes of stars here; we are talking about actual measurements; actual data.</p> <p>If you want a vulcano analogy here's one: we have looked at sample of 1000 vulcanoes, traced back in time and measured their activity. The data clearly shows a decline in the average activity of the total sample, indicating that the Earth's vulcanic activity is now much lower than in the past. Based on that we could predict that the Earth's vulcanic activity will continue to decline in a certain amount. So just like the prediction is not valid for any single galaxy, it is not valid for any single vulcano. It is for the Universe as a whole.</p> <p>Is that concept so hard to understand? The prediction is not a for a specific galaxy - you may well find a galaxy that will still increase in mass by a factor 10, even 30, but the global Universe-average will not do so, unless you can claim a change in physics. - that's all we're saying.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515778&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="fPeRBtJiQD8AH96sYylATYRKaV0m2pfVgkIoJmZz1s8"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">David Sobral (not verified)</span> on 12 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515778">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515779" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352700526"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Main problem about the arguments here: timescales. </p> <p>Obviously, if a phenomenon that takes place over 0.1s is measured over 0.01 s there is no way in hell you can actual understand/measure/make any prediction about it.</p> <p>If you measure it for t&gt;&gt;&gt;0.1s (say 1 year), then you start to have an idea. If you measure it for a billion years and you still have no empirical prediction ability over such thing you are clearly doing something wrong...</p> <p>So your arguments about vulcanos and the Universe 100 years after the Big Bang are not applicable here. Star formation (even if you think about individual bursts/ individual star-forming regions) happens on timescales of ~million years, so obviously you need to have statistical data over a range &gt;&gt; 1 million years. A range of 11 billion years is a range of time which is 11 000 x larger than ~individual star-formation episodes, and that is why you can actually have an idea of what is going on.</p> <p>That becomes even more so because we are not just looking at a single galaxy, but at statistical samples of 1000+ galaxies adding up to a range in time which is &gt;10 000 times larger than the typical star-formation timescale.</p> <p>That is why you can hope to make a decent empirical prediction.</p> <p>That said, Wow, please make up your sophisticated theoretical model to give me an actual prediction. Things it need to reproduce for me to believe it:</p> <p>- Evolution of the star-formation rate density<br /> - Evolution of the stellar mass density</p> <p>If it complies to both and get a completely different result then you should publish it right away in Nature and you'll solve all problems to do with galaxy formation and evolution.</p> <p>But until then, stop arguing against A NUMBEr if you don't have another one to compare with.</p> <p>How can you say that a number is wrong, if all you have are qualitative arguments?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515779&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="cBhngxEZjbIXmUbdc3SqTzdn67lDC9OqUWUhM1qapIg"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">David Sobral (not verified)</span> on 12 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515779">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515780" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352709113"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>David<br /> Your explanation is excellent.<br /> It brings the discussion back to theory and observation of our universe. And it convinces me (as a layman) that your research methods are very rigorous. </p> <p>In my mind, you and your team have set a very high standard. Any theory based on first principles or higher order terms which will dominate the far, far future; must first be in agreement with the facts of astronomical observation that cover 11 billion years of our universes history.that is a very high standard indeed.</p> <p>I have returned to my conclusion that Sobral et al's research is absolutely excellent research. I look forward to their follow on refinements of their research that take account of more and different observations, etc. etc.</p> <p>David, may I ask one question.<br /> Does your work shed any light upon the difference in near galaxies (i.e. near galaxies whose light was emitted in the last billion years) versus old galaxies (those whose light was emitted 9 to 11 billion years ago)? My question is: If you take a pile of data from galaxies of any particular type; can you tell which ones are old versus which are near? Or maybe the distribution of galaxy types is different for old versus near galaxies? So to speak does the fossil astronomical record, tell us clearly that galaxies have evolved over the 11 billion years of observed data in this or that way.</p> <p>David, I am interested in understanding your answer, opinion, perspective. I have no intention in arguing with you. I just want to learn.</p> <p>Thank you David for taking the time to comment on this post; and interpreting your teams research with us. Looking at David's home page <a href="http://www.roe.ac.uk/~drss/SOBRAL/Welcome.html">http://www.roe.ac.uk/~drss/SOBRAL/Welcome.html</a> I see that he is focused upon "understanding of how, when, why and by which mechanisms galaxies form and evolve." Excellent! I will be following your work.</p> <p>My only criticism of your work David Sobral et al is that your actual research paper is quite unreadable (at least for a layman like me). Yet I know from your comments here that you David can express yourself very well at the layman's level (mine). I know that blog comments are not a research paper. But take a look at Ed Witten's research papers; he is a master of simply communicating the complex (in the abstract and introductions and throughout the technical technical detail of his paper) in a way that a layman like myself can understand. Read page 2-3 the introduction of his most recent paper a random example <a href="http://arxiv.org/pdf/1209.5461v2.pdf">http://arxiv.org/pdf/1209.5461v2.pdf</a> Al the best David, and thank you again for the education!</p> <p>And thank you Ethan for bringing Sobral et al's research to us. It has been an education for me. I'd be interested in hearing any of your final thoughts. I have no arguments left. I know that among the best scientists (e.g. Einstein and Bohr) there are differences of opinion. And the important part of the scientific discussion is not who ultimately was shown to be correct; but that the discussion moved the science forward by challenging each scientist to defend there best ideas.</p> <p>So yes, Ethan and Wow, i hope you have more to discuss with David. I will be listening.</p> <p>Ciao.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515780&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="-EgRlgnmKWCoAzmr1sXiZe8VtVigap3r98nYj8PlGSc"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">OKThen (not verified)</span> on 12 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515780">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="33" id="comment-1515781" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352726966"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>David,</p> <p>The thing that troubles me greatly about your conclusion -- and it should trouble you too -- is that if we're 95%+ through forming stars in the Universe, even as a large-scale average, it means that we are going to end up, as the age of the Universe gets arbitrarily large, with large gravitationally bound structures like galaxies, groups, and clusters, with very large amounts of hydrogen that never get locked up and burned in stars.</p> <p>I recognize that's what you get by extending your SFR measurements arbitrarily far into the future, but that's exactly why I don't think they're likely to be right arbitrarily far into the future. Put hydrogen in a gravitationally bound structure for an arbitrarily long amount of time, and eventually it will all burn/fuse together, given gravity, the ability to radiate/cool, and time.</p> <p>It may take trillions or even quadrillions of years to get through it all, but unless you have some way to eject it from the galaxy before you burn it, you're going to eventually burn it all.</p> <p>Your extrapolation doesn't lead to that conclusion and has no physical mechanism to explain what all that hydrogen does instead, and that's the prime reason it's incredibly suspect to me.</p> <p>I think your observations are robust and your measurement of the evolution of the SFR is quality, and it's reasonable to extrapolate it into the future. But -- just as any small effects don't become visible until they become large compared to a dominant, decreasing term -- I think extrapolating it infinitely far into the future, as you do, is fundamentally flawed.</p> <p>If you do not, I'd be curious to learn what you think happens to that hydrogen that prevents it from eventually forming stars, even given an infinite amount of time.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515781&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="iBF9VAxclw-_V-2GtpZdF-8F43kxGX_aJJll5hdU56w"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/startswithabang" lang="" about="/startswithabang" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">esiegel</a> on 12 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515781">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/startswithabang"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/startswithabang" hreflang="en"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/pictures/pastey-120x120_0.jpg?itok=sjrB9UJU" width="100" height="100" alt="Profile picture for user esiegel" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515782" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352728546"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Thanks Ethan for bringing that up: that's a much more interesting discussion and certainly something that is yet to be solved.</p> <p>There are actually quite a few problems which state just that: why don't galaxy clusters, which have tremendous amounts of gas, form stars? How can massive galaxies, which can have non-negligible amounts of stars, prevent themselves from forming them?</p> <p>From a purely observational point of view, it does seem like the scenario which you suggested is indeed likely to become largely spread, i.e., there will be enough gas to form stars in the future, but it simply will not be able to collapse + cool down enough to form stars in a significant way. Likely physical feedback mechanisms seem to result from AGN (radio-mode/maintenance mode) feedback (preventing massive galaxies to form a significant amount of new stars), cluster physics/mechanisms operating at high densities (ram pressure stripping) - which can particularly "kill" lower mass galaxies; and supernovae feedback (which for the smallest/lowest mass galaxies is argued to be able to almost fully expel the gas - along with potentially changing the profile of the dark matter haloes etc).</p> <p>Excellent research is being done at all those areas, and evidence towards that keeps being accumulated (i.e., enough gas available, just physics preventing forming stars at very high rates), so these would certainly be worth a post here or elsewhere.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515782&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="b4sSlHuhSQVBRoz64anYWz2vLJqR0jz4kvra7wJb-hI"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">David Sobral (not verified)</span> on 12 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515782">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515783" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352730873"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>OKThen:</p> <p>#Does your work shed any light upon the difference in near galaxies (i.e. near #galaxies whose light was emitted in the last billion years) versus old galaxies (those #whose light was emitted 9 to 11 billion years ago)? My question is: If you take a pile #of data from galaxies of any particular type; can you tell which ones are old versus #which are near? Or maybe the distribution of galaxy types is different for old versus #near galaxies? So to speak does the fossil astronomical record, tell us clearly that #galaxies have evolved over the 11 billion years of observed data in this or that way<br /> #</p> <p>We have also been looking at the differences in morphology of star-forming galaxies in the last 11 billion years (I'm not sure this is what you are referring to?). We find that for star-forming galaxies, disky/spiral galaxies are the majority and this changes relatively little across time. They tend to be galaxies like our own milky-way, forming stars at the "typical" rate at the time they are being seen. There are also merger and very irregular galaxies which tend to have much higher star formation rates relative to the epoch they reside in, but we also find that the decline in the cosmic star formation rate density *is not* a result of the reduction of merger activity, as was previously suggested many years ago and sometimes assumed as a given. That has now been demonstrated by a few other studies as well.</p> <p>This is still something we are working on, and perhaps not very simple to explain (nor necessarily accurate in detail), but we are actually finding that at least statistically and if you compare like with like, the evolution over the last 11 billion years is relatively simple (to first order): most galaxy properties stay relatively unchanged. What does change significantly is the "typical" rate at which galaxies form stars - that continuously declines over the last 11 billion years.</p> <p>#</p> <p>I fully agree with your point regarding the "readability" of my/our papers, but I think it is hard to make them different since they are specialised journal papers. That said, I do try my best to communicate the results in simple ways with talks (e.g. the fabulous life of Mr Universe), popular articles/papers and other outreach activities (including a "crazy" history of the Universe as a drug addict who took dark energy that I wrote and that you can hear here <a href="http://soundcloud.com/once-upon-a-universe/confessions-of-an-energyholic">http://soundcloud.com/once-upon-a-universe/confessions-of-an-energyholic</a>). I/we should all do more on this though!</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515783&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="3dG1O61qIMdmyQW_JrFRD2KPArHEEdhiTw1B0ikhDok"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">David Sobral (not verified)</span> on 12 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515783">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="33" id="comment-1515784" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352731423"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>David,</p> <p>The difficulty with physical feedback mechanisms is -- unless you can expel the unburned fuel from the galaxy itself (which is, as you correctly state, only true for tiny, isolated dwarfs) -- they will all extinguish over long enough timescales, meaning that you *will* eventually form stars.</p> <p>As far as my knowledge of it goes, the science behind it is not really settled enough (or at least, I'm not knowledgable about it) to feel comfortable writing about it at this stage. My expertise is on large-scale structure formation, DM and DE, and Early Universe physics.</p> <p>My hunch is that, as the SFR density drop below a certain threshold, the slope will change, either becoming constant or dropping at a much slower rate, drastically altering (upwards) the total number of stars as we allow t --&gt; infinity. It may take much longer than trillions of years, but it's hard to envision a self-sustaining star-suppression scenario that last an infinite amount of time without expelling the gas. (And violent relaxation won't do it.)</p> <p>I'll keep thinking about it, but if you know something definitive on the issue I'd love to be pointed in that direction.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515784&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="lh-q7eP8n4YajLZerYiFiZoepRUY2ofxTDAYhyPonbA"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a title="View user profile." href="/startswithabang" lang="" about="/startswithabang" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">esiegel</a> on 12 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515784">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/startswithabang"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/startswithabang" hreflang="en"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/pictures/pastey-120x120_0.jpg?itok=sjrB9UJU" width="100" height="100" alt="Profile picture for user esiegel" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515785" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352738706"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>"But until then, stop arguing against A NUMBEr if you don’t have another one to compare with."</p> <p>You don't have to have a number of angels that can dance on the head of a pin to decide that someone saying "Six" is wrong to say so.</p> <p>Your extrapolation of your data is merely that: extrapolation.</p> <p>No physics behind why it should be so, and a lot to say that is bunkum: the mass of dust in the Milky way (or andromeda, or Black-Eye Galaxy, et al).</p> <p>You can project that figure all you like, but if all you have is a curve and you're fitting it, then you're not any more scientific than Roger Pielke who keeps fitting polynomials to the global temperature and says "it will be cooling down soon!".</p> <p>You're not as deliberately wrong as he is, since he knows why he's doing this.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515785&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="piSe5nJA6NTt-23DeGV_lPYPBOJTApggg3baUjKIYKU"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 12 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515785">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515786" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352748636"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>David<br /> Thank for your answer.</p> <p>Ethan and David<br /> Regarding your discussion. You seem to be in agreement; but there still is something missing in your understanding.</p> <p>Let me offer my speculative hypothesis. Warning: I am an amateur and my speculation is completely bogus unless Ethan or David say it has some merit.</p> <p>I defer to David Sobral and Ethan Siegel's opinion on MY SPECULATION. They are professional astronomers. I am an amateur. IF THEY SAY NOTHING ASSUME MY HYPOTHESIS IS COMPLETELY BOGUS</p> <p>My speculation follows:<br /> The problem is so much hydrogen is trapped forever in stars and galaxies and can never get out and form new stars.<br /> So I searched and found that the problem might be EVEN BIGGER!!</p> <p>Have the missing cosmic baryons been found? ,E. Behar, S. Dado, A. Dar, A. Laor, 2011 <a href="http://arxiv.org/pdf/1102.0201v1.pdf">http://arxiv.org/pdf/1102.0201v1.pdf</a><br /> "90% of the cosmic baryons remain missing in the local universe (redshift z ∼ 0)... , it suggests that the IGM of the local universe contains most of the currently missing cosmic baryons implied by big bang nucleosynthesis, the observed angular power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) radiation and the Thomson opacity inferred from its polarization, but only ∼ 10% are present in the galaxies, galaxy clusters and UVO absorbers in the local universe."<br /> YIKES, I did not know!!!</p> <p>If IGM hypothesis is correct; then most of the universe's hydrogen is not forever locked in dead stars in galaxies; it is free floating in the IGM (intergalactic medium). and we didn't even know it was there.</p> <p>So now the paradox of Sobral et al's research is even bigger. Why is "the “typical” rate at which galaxies form stars – that continuously declines over the last 11 billion years?"</p> <p>If Ethan is correct and if even more missing cosmic baryons (i.e. hydrogen) has been found; then there may be some serious error in Sobral et al's research. But what kind of error?</p> <p>I hypothesize that Sobral et al have made a very simple serious systematic error. Their data is biased in the following way. (David or Ethan can very easily confirm that my idea is completely bogus or a possibility).</p> <p>The Sobral et al's data shows that "for star-forming galaxies, disky/spiral galaxies are the majority and this changes relatively little across time. They tend to be galaxies like our own milky-way, forming stars at the “typical” rate at the time they are being seen... (But) the “typical” rate at which galaxies form stars – that continuously declines over the last 11 billion years."<br /> Why? Of course the data is correct; but is it somehow systematically biased? ditto the mathematical analysis.</p> <p>I conclude yes, Sobral et al's data is systematically biased in the following way.<br /> At a given period of time (now or 11 billion years ago) there is a range of galaxy luminosity; but faint spiral galaxies at 11 billion years are either not seen in Sobral et al's data or do not contain enough information to be part of his galaxy survey. And galaxies that are very active forming new stars are brighter than galaxies that are less active in forming stars. Therefore, the greater galactic distance, the greater is Sobral's data biased galaxies that are actively forming new stars.</p> <p>Now I search and find this paper:<br /> Constraining the Bright-end of the UV Luminosity Function for z ≈ 7 − 9 Galaxies: results from CANDELS/GOODS-South, Silvio Lorenzoni, Andrew J. Bunker, Stephen M. Wilkins, Joseph Caruana, Elizabeth R. Stanway, Matt J. Jarvis, 2012 <a href="http://arxiv.org/pdf/1210.8417v1.pdf">http://arxiv.org/pdf/1210.8417v1.pdf</a><br /> "The bright high redshift galaxy candidates we found<br /> serve to better constrain the bright end of the luminosity<br /> function at those redshift, and may also be more amenable to<br /> spectroscopic confirmation than the fainter ones presented<br /> in various previous work on the smaller fields (HUDF and<br /> ERS)." OK. </p> <p>So I think that Sobral et al are systematically missing faint high redshift galaxy or systematically eliminating them because they do not have enough useful spectroscopic data. And furthermore, I think that there is plenty of new hydrogen in the IGM (intergalactic medium) to feed new galaxies formation of new stars. And I suspect that the actual star formation in galaxies in our visible universe may be flat or even increasing when the systematic biases are removed. </p> <p>Thus despite Sobral et al's excellent research, the star formation rate of the universe is constant due to the continuous influsion of IGM hydrogen into galaxies. Thus Ethan's statement to me is possibly correct in that it restates the hypothesis that the actual star formation in galaxies in our visible universe may be flat or even increasing when the systematic biases are removed. </p> <p>Obviously, better data (e.g. James Webb Space Telescope) will help determine if there is systematic bias. But I think that Ethan or David have enough data and insight to form an opinion on my hypothesis of systematic bias.</p> <p>I defer to David Sobral and Ethan Siegel' opinion on this matter. They are professional astronomers. I am an amateur. IF THEY SAY NOTHING ASSUME MY IDEA IS COMPLETELY BOGUS.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515786&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="cjdwjepG57YiOc1Ke65JpeJ8PrtU1QsiL4awE8-H27w"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">OKThen (not verified)</span> on 12 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515786">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515787" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352765528"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>OKThen:</p> <p>One of the big points of the data we took over 5 years and using over 50-70 nights of some of the best telescopes in the World (and the point of using 3 different telescopes) is so that we would be equally sensitive down to something like Milky-way star formation rates (1-3 solar masses per year) all the way back to 11 billion years ago. That is why we have used the VLT (8-m) and observed very deep pointings at the highest redshift, but we also did very deep observations at all the other redshifts.</p> <p>Compared to previous studies and other heterogeneous compilations this is actually one of the big differences in what we did: we really are comparing like with like, both because of the technique and selection we apply, but even down to the same physical star-formation rate limit of things we can see.</p> <p>Also, even with completely heterogeneous compilations of studies, you can really completely exclude that the star formation rate of the Universe is constant. I don't think no-one would argue against the decline and its steepness either, regardless os the method that you use.</p> <p>But, of course, you can argue about whether 11 billion years is anywhere representative to predicting the global system. Maybe it isn't.</p> <p>But what if we had data on the Earth's weather all the way back to 4-5 billion years ago in multiple slices and with multiple baselines. It doesn't matter how we would fit it or not: wouldn't that be at least as powerful as any theoretical guesses that we may have about how it behaved and how it will behave in the future? Again, of course, if we have only registered patterns over the last 100 years of so and the system is more like 6 billion years old, of course there is little hope in predicting what it will do...</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515787&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="sYwYk2ct6INb_kvo9jnhbzxuDA5Um9O5lx1IFJGQ0Vw"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">David Sobral (not verified)</span> on 12 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515787">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515788" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352772444"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Also, Wow, if your arguments were close to what actually happens, then we would have seen it very clearly when we predict the evolution of the stellar mass density evolution (mass of stars that are in a given volume in the Universe) and compare that with observations from a range of teams and studies and that really do go down to very faint galaxies (in terms of their stellar mass). If we were missing a significant fraction of the total star-formation in cosmic volumes, then our prediction (over the last 11 billion years) of the amount of stellar mass per volume would be a significant under-prediction of what's actually out there. </p> <p>The reality is that our measurements are able to predict what is actually observed in terms of mass of stars per volume as a function of time. Also, the method to measure "stellar masses" in galaxies is completely different from what we use for measuring star-formation rates in galaxies, so you would need to be quite imaginative to come out with a complicated range of systematics that could make both agree.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515788&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="MOtxKFQI0No2-iOwDNjw5KxmJ11zNN63jFDjG7uvVBw"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">David Sobral (not verified)</span> on 12 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515788">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515789" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352784214"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>If my point was "you're missing stars" then you'd have a point, David.</p> <p>My problem isn't with your measurements.</p> <p>It's with extrapolating those measurements. The "IF" you propose is unsupported by any science.</p> <p>IF Mystic Meg could see the future, she could predict the next winner of the National Lottery.</p> <p>Though it is fully correct, it hinges on the IF.</p> <p>Which has no support in any understood process and contra-indicated in many tests.</p> <p>We only have the one universe, so we can't use other universes not following your IF to discard it.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515789&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="3cm92N7s2JVybDOi4n-qI9osGmyY6WTCydiSILcDppY"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 13 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515789">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515790" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352785942"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>I'm sure you have heard about empirical models right? Models which are not necessarily based on theory but that do a good job at describing and predicting certain phenomena. So you are saying empirical models are not science. I'm saying you're ignoring the bulk of what science is.</p> <p>Science is always full of "If"s. Even fundamental things such as "if the laws of physics do not change with time", or "if space-time continues to exist has it does not". Nothing guarantees that's the case. And yet you and everyone else think of such If's as quite good assumptions.</p> <p>A stupid data-collector robot goes on and measures the trajectory of the Sun for thousands of years at very different locations on Earth. It concludes that there is a period of about 24hours and on top of that a period of 12 months. It then predicts, assuming (IF!) that the system will continue to behave like it did in the last thousands of years, the positions of the sun, seen from each point on Earth, for the next thousands of years. </p> <p>You say the robot is not scientific. I say he's doing great empirical science, with a testable prediction, which new observations can refine or refute.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515790&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="2WqwY0u52HwYDzOoZgqLR2HoUk-JPbH1nWH0D8nLT2M"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">David Sobral (not verified)</span> on 13 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515790">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515791" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352791166"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>And I'm sure you've heard about curve fitting as a non-science method of prediction, right?</p> <p>You actually need a theory to explain the empirical model.</p> <p>Go get one, tiger.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515791&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="OBMNz9kEJYh4HxdCDqgaiDZPHkyr3AOvB7UZp8HkPMs"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 13 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515791">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515792" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352793959"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>You need a theory to UNDERSTAND the empirical model. But you do not need a theory for it TO WORK.</p> <p>That's the key difference. And of course, there are thousands of people working on UNDERSTANDING the observations, including our group. If someone had a fully successful theory to explain all of it already you would not be discussing this with me, but with that someone who had just won the Nobel Prize.</p> <p>Baby steps, wow, baby steps. Measuring it first and understanding it later is often much better than the other way around: because it avoids so many human biases and people pushing to detect what they should be detecting. </p> <p>Plus, if I had both the empirical model and the theory to fully explain it, I would be out of a job.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515792&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="td8l-P20AaYb_6mU3AyeTE8rjNErgH47CrNEtx9JVFQ"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">David Sobral (not verified)</span> on 13 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515792">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515793" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352795493"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Except that there is no "WORK" there.</p> <p>You're predicting the future, David. Until a lot of time has passed, there's nothing to say "This model is WORKING".</p> <p>Dark Matter has similar problems, but at least people proposing it are considering different ways of finding out what the hell it is (i.e. proposing mechanisms and causations).</p> <p>You don't need to fully explain it either (hell, we don't have a theory of GRAVITY fully explained), so stop with the strawmen there.</p> <p>Have a theory that explains it AT ALL.</p> <p>"Continuing the line to the future" isn't a theory. It's an activity. And one that has no basis to be accepted.</p> <p>Rejecting the "If..." means your papers conclusion is falsified.</p> <p>And currently you have NO REASON to accept the "If" presented.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515793&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="LUD2mvxCDZGX6UWxW--DfahsnrkxT34BDCrKvcOJOAM"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 13 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515793">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515794" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352797456"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>It's that simple (to explain why I said it "works" - <a href="http://home.strw.leidenuniv.nl/~sobral/FIG3_G.jpg">http://home.strw.leidenuniv.nl/~sobral/FIG3_G.jpg</a> for the prediction and measurements comparison):</p> <p>1) If you assume the star formation history we obtained, we can PREDICT the stellar mass density at any given time in the Universe. That means 11, 10, ... 1, billion years ago or at any time from 11 billion years ago. That is one of the things we did.</p> <p>2) So let's test it. There are independent, high-quality data - so we CAN TEST THE PREDICTIONS. What about 10 billion years ago?<br /> - Spot on.</p> <p>3) What about 9 billion years ago?<br /> - Spot on</p> <p>... (and so on): see <a href="http://home.strw.leidenuniv.nl/~sobral/FIG3_G.jpg">http://home.strw.leidenuniv.nl/~sobral/FIG3_G.jpg</a> for the prediction and measurements comparison</p> <p>n) what about now?<br /> - Spot on.</p> <p>Conclusion: at all times for which there are data to confront the predictions, the predictions pass the test. So it *works* (and this is what I meant by working). It predicts. It is tested. It passes the test.</p> <p>Ok, so that does have (At least some!) some prediction power, because it makes clear predictions, it is confronted with completely independent observations, and it is able to predict the right values. So sure, maybe it will break down in a long, long time, but since it predicts the evolution of the stellar mass density really accurately over the last 11 billion years (80% of the total "life" of the Universe), and it is based on a continuous decline which is modelled using a really simple (it is not a far-fetched weird, complicated polynomial!) is it really that hard for you to at least consider the possibility that it may well provide a decent guess - based on what we know now?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515794&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="LIpwu2PxYcrX-CHBquDW00viIzATJ50pTqjJu5EPB3c"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">David Sobral (not verified)</span> on 13 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515794">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515795" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352798417"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>David<br /> Thank you. I'm sure your paper explained your research diligence in technical terms; but I do appreciate the layman's explanation. As I said, my hypothesis was an AMATEUR SPECULATION, a learning hypothesis. Thank you for taking the time to address my learning hypothesis and teach me.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515795&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="VUuos0wIasiTBwobU97SY7lTKl9MXkZK7U6F463qz_g"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">OKThen (not verified)</span> on 13 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515795">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515796" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352798985"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Just to clarify: the "prediction" for the future is obviously not *AT ALL* a "conclusion" of the paper we are discussing. It is a mere curiosity. Something nice to play with and make an interesting guess.</p> <p>The conclusions are measurements and the description of the evolution in the H-alpha luminosity function (which, by the way, are tremendously important and have high *prediction* power for new space telescopes currently being planned/built such as WFIRST and Euclid), the evolution of the star formation rate density and the fact that it predicts the measured evolution of the stellar mass density.</p> <p>In many other papers we also interpret and discuss the several effects that are probably driving what we see, including the role of the environment, the role of galaxy mergers, the morphologies and disk dynamics, metallicity gradients, dust extinction properties, clustering and the dark matter haloes that host the star-forming population across time and many other key aspects. </p> <p>When we do combine everything I'll let you know whether we get a nice and simple picture which supports or refutes the "crazy" extrapolation of the trend.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515796&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="gZUz5E7Z2lOaRiCK4nr3ahR-HgI7_PmqNs-y66E93t4"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">David Sobral (not verified)</span> on 13 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515796">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515797" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352800292"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Wow</p> <p>Which of Sobral et al's conclusions exactly do you disagree with? </p> <p>Come on. I thought that you had a Ph.D in astronomy. If so, then engage David as a scientist about a specific problem with his conclusion. And I'm an amateur. For guidance take a look at Ethan's scientist to scientist conversation with David. Excellent, we all learned something if we were listening.</p> <p>We are learning nothing from your protestations of what? What exactly is your point? </p> <p>And what's up with your problem with empirical science?</p> <p>Perhaps your view empirical science (experimental and analytic methods) as lower in the hierarchy of science than analysis based on first principles. e.g. " A calculation is said to be ab initio (or "from first principles") if it relies on basic and established laws of nature without additional assumptions or special models. For example, an ab initio calculation of the properties of liquid water might start with the properties of the constituent hydrogen and oxygen atoms and the laws of electrodynamics. From these basics, the properties of isolated individual water molecules would be derived, followed by computations of the interactions of larger and larger groups of water molecules, until the bulk properties of water had been determined."<br /> Is that your point?</p> <p>Wow says, "You actually need a theory to explain the empirical model. Go get one, tiger." Your insults express your ignorance not David's. Try to make a scientific point. </p> <p>But David says, "Wow, please make up your sophisticated theoretical model to give me an actual prediction. Things it need to reproduce for me to believe it:<br /> - Evolution of the star-formation rate density<br /> - Evolution of the stellar mass density<br /> If it complies to both and get a completely different result then you should publish it right away in Nature and you’ll solve all problems to do with galaxy formation and evolution.<br /> But until then, stop arguing against A NUMBER if you don’t have another one to compare with."<br /> So Wow get a number or point to research that takes Sobral et al's data an analyses it the way that you suggest.</p> <p>But Wow you are a good enough scientist to understand the catch. There is no theory yet to calculate from. And no theoretical astronomer is going to do the extremely difficult calculation that you suggest (with todays theory) unless there is a possibility that there will be a significant prediction in the NOW of our visible universe that can be tested NOW or with the next generation super James Webb space telescope (next 100 years). Because if Sobral et al's curve fitting is as good as it gets prediction wise for the next billion years of observation; a good theoretical astronomer will do research whose predictions can be verified or not in the today (next century or less).</p> <p>As Ethan said to David "I think your observations are robust and your measurement of the evolution of the SFR is quality, and it’s reasonable to extrapolate it into the future." </p> <p>So in my mind, if I accept Ethan's problem is correct; then in my mind there has to be some physics that we can understand today that suggest, aha here is how that hydrogen trapped in stars and galaxies gets out. e.g. this is the untrapping principle. But without understanding an untrapping of hydrogen principle; Ethan and Wow's first principle a concern is just a hunch.</p> <p>As Ethan said, "My hunch is that, as the SFR density drop below a certain threshold, the slope will change, either becoming constant or dropping at a much slower rate, drastically altering (upwards) the total number of stars as we allow t –&gt; infinity. It may take much longer than trillions of years, but it’s hard to envision a self-sustaining star-suppression scenario that last an infinite amount of time without expelling the gas. (And violent relaxation won’t do it.)"</p> <p>So agreeing with Ethan's hunch and making it a specific quantifiable conjecture and then doing some math is just another form of "curve fitting as a non-science method of prediction"; if by "non-science" you mean we don't understand some first principles (e.g. the untrapping of hydrogen from dead stars principle).</p> <p>Personally, it is my opinion that "science" never understands in the ultimate detail "first principles." </p> <p>Sometimes empirical science is better science than our best first principles science.<br /> - science doesn't get to the point of first principle analysis and understanding until after an awful lot of empirical science.<br /> - even after a lot of empirical science, first principle science may be too difficult to do, e.g. Robert B Laughlin, 1998 nobel prize in physics points out, "it is presently too difficult to calculate from scratch which crystalline phase of ice will form at a given temperature and pressure." </p> <p>So we need the empirical tables of data and extrapolations. And extrapolating Ethan or your hunch to a trillion years is worse than Sobral extrapolating about current observations and star data over the 11 billion years of empirical observation.</p> <p>And by the way the phases of the universe, galaxies, stars, and planets are a whole lot more complex than the the phases of water.</p> <p>So Wow are you a Ph.D. astronomer or not. Because you really sound worse than an amateur. So zip it or engage Sobral as a scientist, rise to the challenge; THINK, EDUCATE, DARE TO CLEARLY EXPRESS YOUR BEST IDEA.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515797&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="IuIpiGCpG3gyrGrhUGoEGsXn-KFOor3GLXoDsuqvibs"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">OKThen (not verified)</span> on 13 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515797">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515798" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1352863756"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>This is clearly spin from the liberal media. We will never hit peak star. You are just trying to frighten consumers so they use their star-powered vehicles less and get on trains the run on steam.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515798&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="ZR0cSKebDkX0bqzLEX5mRQFdRMlbakog-5ZP-XiAwsQ"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Drew Garner (not verified)</span> on 13 Nov 2012 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515798">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515799" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1400531334"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>You really make it seem so easy with your presentation but I find this matter to be really something which I think I would never understand. It seems too complicated and very broad for me. I am looking forward for your next post, I'll try to get the hang of it!|</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515799&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="gaSWJlQ69DZE8oyyz8FrPTrapiXXkH52BI8IHWZ9kO0"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a rel="nofollow" href="http://pantip.com" lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Paulette Animashaun (not verified)</a> on 19 May 2014 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515799">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515800" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1400565044"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Greetings! Very helpful advice in this particular post! It is the little changes which will make the largest changes. Many thanks for sharing!|</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515800&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="tGFvlVh3YY3_UGilGu_HHaoY-xNVrp6dTxg7b-gcy3w"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a rel="nofollow" href="http://pantip.com" lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Danial Dycus (not verified)</a> on 20 May 2014 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515800">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515801" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1403454675"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>If it's true that star production will cease in ONE trillion years from today than the steady star production decline in the universe would have to come to a halt in 100,359,696,906 years after today and only a single star would form between then and 1 trillion years after today. If instead it's true that star production will cease in 100 trillion years from today than the steady star production decline would have to halt in 119,594,696,906 years after today and there would only be a single star formed between then and 100 trillion years after today.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515801&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="xNieKCGfd6w5jgnADLTRM2aygJRWJYm6FR79Q6DSIVE"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Toby Benedict (not verified)</span> on 22 Jun 2014 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515801">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515802" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1404247900"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>I corrected my previous figures which were wrong. Here are the correct figures based on rate of star formation decline over last 5 billion years for star production in milky way galaxy. which is the best one to use because elliptical decline faster than ours. In reality it's going to decline slightly slower than rate of the last 5 billion years in milky way but assuming it was same rate of decline for Star formation rate in milky way then there are 2 answers. The final star formed cannot be later than 236,457,009,019 years from now because the next one wouldn't be until 100 trillion years after today, OR it is the final star produced is in 217,552,815,151 years from now because any later and the next one wouldn't be until after 1 trillion years from now. In reality of course it would be slightly later than these dates as star formation rate will decline a bit more.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515802&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="S2m60SsOIyFQWRv1JvcfvkGzECVNZN_aYNJ67sDx1Ec"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Toby Benedict (not verified)</span> on 01 Jul 2014 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515802">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1515803" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1442247538"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>It seems to me that decrease in star formation in the universe may be more about galaxy collisions and interactions dispersing the stars in galaxies creating elliptical galaxies with little or no star formation than using up all of the hydrogen.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1515803&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="Mr74iqJW56LoorCE1-2JCVdv4Bkmi9VvU9KHL87S_SE"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Jack Woods (not verified)</span> on 14 Sep 2015 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1515803">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> </section> <ul class="links inline list-inline"><li class="comment-forbidden"><a href="/user/login?destination=/startswithabang/2012/11/07/every-galaxy-will-have-new-stars-for-trillions-of-years%23comment-form">Log in</a> to post comments</li></ul> Wed, 07 Nov 2012 17:07:53 +0000 esiegel 35512 at https://www.scienceblogs.com What made people sick? Dust and aerosols at Ground Zero https://www.scienceblogs.com/thepumphandle/2011/09/28/what-made-people-sick-dust-and <span>What made people sick? Dust and aerosols at Ground Zero</span> <div class="field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field--item"><p>by Elizabeth Grossman</p> <p>Why some people who inhaled the airborne contaminants unleashed by the destruction of the World Trade Center on September 11, 2001 became sick for only a short time, why some have become chronically ill, and others terminally ill, may never be known. What is known, however, is that the dust and aerosols released in that disaster contained a potentially treacherous mix of everything that was in those enormous buildings and in those aircraft. What is also known is that, as Paul J. Lioy, professor and vice chair of the Department of Environmental and Occupational Medicine at the Robert Wood Johnson Medical School at the University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey, says succinctly in his book, <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Dust-Inside-Story-September-Aftermath/dp/1442201487">Dust: The Inside Story of its Role in the September 11th Aftermath</a></em>, "no research had ever been done on the toxicology of such a mixture as WTC dust." Ten years later, the impacts of that mixture are all too real in the form of lung and gastrointestinal diseases for many of those who worked at or near the site on 9/11 and in the days, weeks, and months that followed. </p> <p>Vividly recounted by doctors involved in the ongoing medical studies of those impacted by WTC material exposures who spoke at the <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/thepumphandle/2011/09/ten_years_later_world_trade_ce.php">September 16 NYCOSH meeting on worker and community disaster health protection</a> and, in emotional testimony from those who are now ill, is the seriousness of these conditions. For most who've been stricken by severe chronic illness and worse, also vividly described was their lack of expecting that what they had encountered by breathing 'Ground Zero' air would or could take such a toll. </p> <!--more--><p>Denise and Rhonda Villamia, sisters who volunteered first "spontaneously," as they described it, and then with the Red Cross several days a week or more for about six months beginning in September 2001, said their lives are "permanently changed" as a result of Ground Zero exposures. The sisters helped maintain workers' sleeping areas as well as boot and hand washing stations and brought provisions to those working on 'the pile.' Both are now suffering debilitating chronic respiratory and gastrointestinal illnesses. Daniel Arrigo, who worked with Local 79 of the Laborers International Union of North America and spent four months clearing wreckage from the World Trade Center site, spoke while being supported by supplied oxygen. He now suffers from chronic lung diseases that include bronchitis and severe gastric reflux. </p> <p>Dr. Laura Crowley, specialist in pulmonary health and assistant professor of preventive medicine at Mount Sinai School of Medicine, reported on the treatment and monitoring of people exposed to hazards at Ground Zero. She reported that more than 30,000 people are enrolled for monitoring and more than 15,000 are receiving treatment for a list of conditions that includes upper and lower respiratory illnesses, and gastrointestinal, musculoskeletal, neurological, and psychological disorders. Until the passage of the James Zadroga 9/11 Health and Compensation Act of 2010, the World Trade Center Medical Monitoring and Treatment Program provided screening and treatment to responders and community members, but the program's Congressional appropriations were never certain for more than a year at a time. Since July 1, 2011, the newly established World Trade Center Health Program has taken over the monitoring and treatment functions, and it has the advantage of being funded by mandatory spending through the end of fiscal year 2015.</p> <p><strong>Results from monitoring</strong><br /> Among what the program is tracking are emerging and long-term latency diseases that include cancers. One of those that appears to be occurring in excess of what might be expected, is sarcoidosis, explained both Crowley and Dr. David Prezant, Chief Medical Officer for the New York City Fire Department Office of Medical Affairs. This is a disease in which tiny clumps of abnormal tissue called granulomas (clusters of immune cells) form in certain organs. When these granulomas form in the lungs, they that can cause inflammation that impairs breathing, and possibly lead to pulmonary hypertension, among other effects. Some of these symptoms are similar to those of certain stages of silicosis and asbestosis.</p> <p>While much of the environmental monitoring of World Trade Center dust focused on asbestos, Dr. Joan Reibman, director of the Health and Hospitals Corporation World Trade Center Environmental Health Center associated with Bellevue and New York University hospital, reminding the NYCOSH conference that the dust contained other materials, including silica, talc, titanium, copper, chromium, aluminum silicate, as well as other substances associated with pulverized cement. In his book, Lioy notes that the dust also contained lead, glass shards and fibers, and what came to be called slag wool, in particles that ranged from the coarse to the very fine. Among what's been found in lung tissue of people who were exposed to WTC dust are carbon nanotubes, explained Bruce Lippy, who was formerly industrial hygienist for the International Union of Operating Engineers and is now an independent consultant. Research suggests that carbon nanotubes may affect lung tissue in ways similar to asbestos fibers.</p> <p>The variety of particle size, the presence of so many large particles, and the high alkalinity of much of the dust, explains Lioy, are likely contributing factors to the health effects of exposure to World Trade Center dust.</p> <p><strong>The role of aerosols</strong><br /> For those at or near the World Trade Center on 9/11 or immediately following before the initial dust clouds had completely settled or were damped down by rain, exposure was not only to the components of what's come to be called WTC dust, but also to aerosols - a mixture of gasses and particulates. Lioy writes:</p> <blockquote><p>In retrospect, during the first twenty-four to forty-eight hours post-collapse, we should have been calling the WTC dust the WTC aerosol. ... That WTC aerosol contained both the dust and gases that were the net result of the emissions for the collapse of the WTC. Unfortunately we will never know completely what was in this WTC aerosol because we did not measure the gaseous phase of the combusted material released into the atmosphere. </p></blockquote> <p>As for the aerosols' likely effects on people, Lioy explains, "Those gases have been known for years as being very toxic in human lungs," and would likely have contained a mix of hydrocarbons associated with fuels as well as from burning of various other petroleum-based materials. </p> <p>"We have no idea how toxic it was but you couldn't have dragged me off that pile. You couldn't have dragged any of us off that pile. We have an unwritten bond, if any of us go down, we have an obligation," said Patrick Bahnken, president of Uniformed EMS, Paramedics and Fire Inspectors with the New York City Fire Department, of the time he spent at 'Ground Zero.' But he said, "Until we start talking about cancer and hold people in power accountable, we'll continue to hear the bagpipes play, and personally, I'm tired of hearing them."</p> <p>What was made clear from speaker after speaker at the NYCOSH conference was continued anger and frustration at the government assurances of safety in the days immediately following 9/11. "What we were told at that time was quite remarkable," said Micki Siegel De Hernandez, health and safety director of Communications Workers of America District 1. "This has informed every decision that followed. We are still living with those decisions."</p> <p><em>Elizabeth Grossman is the author of <a href="http://chasingmolecules.org/">Chasing Molecules: Poisonous Products, Human Health, and the Promise of Green Chemistry</a>, <a href="http://hightechtrash.com/">High Tech Trash: Digital Devices, Hidden Toxics, and Human Health</a>, and other books. Her work has appeared in a variety of publications including Scientific American, Salon, The Washington Post, The Nation, Mother Jones, Grist, and the Huffington Post. Chasing Molecules was chosen by Booklist as one of the Top 10 Science &amp; Technology Books of 2009 and won a 2010 Gold Nautilus Award for investigative journalism.</em></p> </div> <span><a title="View user profile." href="/author/egrossman" lang="" about="/author/egrossman" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">egrossman</a></span> <span>Wed, 09/28/2011 - 09:41</span> <div class="field field--name-field-blog-tags field--type-entity-reference field--label-inline"> <div class="field--label">Tags</div> <div class="field--items"> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/environmental-health" hreflang="en">Environmental health</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/occupational-health-safety" hreflang="en">Occupational Health &amp; Safety</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/aerosols" hreflang="en">aerosols</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/dust" hreflang="en">dust</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/health" hreflang="en">health</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/monitoring" hreflang="en">monitoring</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/world-trade-center" hreflang="en">world trade center</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/wtc-dust" hreflang="en">WTC dust</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/environmental-health" hreflang="en">Environmental health</a></div> </div> </div> <section> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1871464" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1317363929"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Another little-noted impact in the aftermath of the WTC collapse was the increase in dioxin/furan exposure, especially to those on-site. EPA (in 2002) estimated a 10% increase in body burden for these workers, but calculated that this would make little difference in their long-term health. Other analyses of dust levels on buildings nearby (S. Rayne, et al., ES&amp;T, 2005) suggest that the exposure may have been higher, but in any case the full range of health effects would not be observed yet. Stay tuned.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1871464&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="sx4CeYxNTai-OgYx-cBEbqB-0TwXqlniZKH0CcDcZVE"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Dick Clapp (not verified)</span> on 30 Sep 2011 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1871464">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1871465" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1317365497"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>As far as I know, no one measured alpha emitting particles in the dust (that would have come from the thousands of smoke detectors containing amercium 231 that burned) and cause lung cancer.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1871465&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="Xj8jvEqZLjSgiO6qAOYgg1n3Iejft6fmEWlwkSrGd94"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Alice Freund (not verified)</span> on 30 Sep 2011 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1871465">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1871466" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1317371107"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Emphasis on "complexity" of exposure or agents like dioxin (which have not previously been associated with respiratory and GRDS) distracts from generalizing the health effects observed among WTC responders and the community. It was the dust! Conventional measurements were made. The scientific questions are: whether the conventional measurements are appropriate for a fire and building collapse site (wherever it is); or, is the conventional interpretation of the conventional measurements appropriate. Specifically, what are the appropriate particulate criteria for protection at the site. </p> <p>In the absence of such a consensus, the next time this happens we will be back to saying that even though measurements say there's no violation, we are asking all workers to all wear respirators all the time.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1871466&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="So29onkxbNk2Z3tyxYeU4JJKwMja1p2CleNixm2WY3I"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Frank Mirer (not verified)</span> on 30 Sep 2011 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1871466">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1871467" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1317395508"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Much of this could have been mitigated had First Responders<br /> been provided with proper FFPR (respirators).</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1871467&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="rMVTkcA5TwsQeX3yDDCk9MxFIQRNJlpH-Ils2_X2pK0"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Dr. Gabor Lantos (not verified)</span> on 30 Sep 2011 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1871467">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> </section> <ul class="links inline list-inline"><li class="comment-forbidden"><a href="/user/login?destination=/thepumphandle/2011/09/28/what-made-people-sick-dust-and%23comment-form">Log in</a> to post comments</li></ul> Wed, 28 Sep 2011 13:41:17 +0000 egrossman 61379 at https://www.scienceblogs.com Ten years later World Trade Center dust has not yet settled: NYCOSH conference highlights persistent gaps in regulation https://www.scienceblogs.com/thepumphandle/2011/09/23/ten-years-later-world-trade-ce <span>Ten years later World Trade Center dust has not yet settled: NYCOSH conference highlights persistent gaps in regulation</span> <div class="field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field--item"><p>by Elizabeth Grossman</p> <p>It's now ten years since the streets of lower Manhattan roiled with clouds of toxic dust and debris from the horrific events of September 11, 2001, but it was clear from discussions and presentations at the September 16 conference hosted by the <a href="http://www.nycosh.org/">New York Coalition for Occupational Safety and Health (NYCOSH)</a> that the dust has not yet settled when it comes to issues of protecting worker and community health from environmental hazards of a disaster - nor from the ongoing impacts of 9/11. In the course of the day-long meeting held on lower Broadway a few blocks from the World Trade Center site, it was at times painfully evident that despite the huge efforts made toward providing help to those injured and sickened by exposure to World Trade Center dust and improving systems for protecting those responding to and affected by such a catastrophic disaster, many gaps remain in the current regulatory framework that must be addressed to ensure that policies at any level of government do not prevent people in a disaster zone from being fully - and effectively - informed about and protected from environmental health hazards.</p> <!--more--><p>Looming large over the day's discussions was the declaration made on September 14, 2001 by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) that the air in New York's financial district was "not a cause for public concern" and that indoor air quality in downtown buildings would meet safety standards. "Our tests show that it is safe for New Yorkers to go back to work in New York's Financial District," said John L. Henshaw, Assistant Secretary of Labor for OSHA in a <a href="http://www.osha.gov/pls/oshaweb/owadisp.show_document?p_table=NEWS_RELEASES&amp;p_id=93">press statement</a>. "The good news," said EPA administrator Christine Whitman in the same press release, "continues to be that the air samples have all been at levels that cause us no concern." These <a href="http://www.propublica.org/article/new-docs-detail-how-feds-downplayed-ground-zero-health-risks">too-rosy reassurances</a> from federal officials - along with the directions from the New York City Department of Health for residents to use wet mops and rags to clean World Trade Center dust, without any mention of precautionary respiratory protection - in many ways set the stage for how the response unfolded. Both are also emblematic of what many speaking during the day characterized as the "failure of the regulatory framework" that plagued worker and community health protection during the 9/11 response.</p> <p>Embodied in those <a href="http://www.epa.gov/oig/reports/2003/wtc/epapr20010913.htm">September 2001 statements</a> are all the issues stemming from the 9/11 response that have played out over the past ten years: Political expediency; the challenges of assessing health hazards of chemical mixtures; the issues related to health hazard monitoring, including where and when measurements should be taken; enforcement of safety precautions; the medical implications, both short and long term, of hazard exposure, including who is considered at risk; and who's responsible for personal health safety measures and for the safety assessment and clean up of hazard-contaminated private property. </p> <p>These were the themes addressed by the five panels of speakers assembled by NYCOSH, among them key medical, public and occupational health experts, labor, and community group leaders, along with senior staff from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Occupational Health and Safety Administration (OSHA), National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), and National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS), and Representatives Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) and Jerrold Nadler (D-NY) lead sponsors of the <a href="http://maloney.house.gov/index.php?option=com_issues&amp;task=view_issue&amp;issue=22&amp;Itemid=35">James Zadroga 9/11 Health and Compensation Act</a>. NYCOSH asked the speakers to address the following: How the extent of harm from 9/11 exposures has been documented; how and why this harm occurred; and what changes have been made to include the government's response to any future disasters.</p> <p><strong>Protecting responders with imperfect knowledge</strong><br /> In the wake of 9/11 and the BP/Deepwater Horizon disaster, the federal government has initiated various efforts aimed at addressing some of the shortcomings of the 9/11 response. Among these is NIOSH's <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/niosh/docket/review/docket223/">Emergency Responder Health Monitoring and Surveillance guidance</a>, which is designed to improve health (including psychological) and safety of all workers involved in a complex emergency response. There are extensive long-term follow-up health studies underway on the Gulf Coast, and much talk of improved communications. Yet by the end of the day it seemed clear that some of the most fundamental problems that arose during 9/11 response and their root causes have yet to be resolved. </p> <p>The list of "lessons learned" NIOSH director John Howard presented pin-pointed many of these outstanding issues. Among these is "the need to know who was involved," whether as professional responders, volunteers, or as members of affected communities. Not yet fully addressed was the question of "Who is an emergency responder?" raised by Micki Siegel de Hernandez, Health and Safety Director for Communications Workers of America, District 1, whose members include cable and phone company workers. Another is the need to monitor exposure during the response. "Piecing that together after is craziness," said Howard. But as evidenced during the BP/Deepwater Horizon disaster, despite extensive efforts to compile responder rosters and to conduct meaningful environmental and personal exposure monitoring, there remain many gaps in both these areas.</p> <p>When it comes to exposure assessment, said Howard, "we need to think about mixtures." Chemical safety assessments and standards are now set for one substance at a time, but in reality exposures always occur in combination, so the issue of addressing mixtures is vital. NIEHS, said deputy director Richard Woychik, has made this a research priority. But the question remains how to protect people in advance of any study results.</p> <p>The need to deploy of the precautionary principle was another theme of the day - as was the tug-of-war between politics, science, and common sense. "Science, which requires evidence, will lag behind social need," said David Prezant, Chief Medical Officer of the New York City Fire Department Office of Medical Affairs and one of the responders at the World Trade Center site on 9/11. But he said, we also "need some flexibility to be able to treat while studying." </p> <p>Balancing the demands of an emergency rescue situation with responder health and safety and how decisions are made to move into recovery mode when haste is no longer imperative, were also key topics. "The prolonged rescue phase hampered health and safety at the World Trade Center," said NYCOSH industrial hygienist Dave Newman. </p> <p><strong>Agency roles and jurisdictions</strong><br /> One particularly contentious issue is that of OSHA's role as an enforcement agency during a disaster response. As OSHA head David Michaels recounted on the 16th, during the BP/Deepwater Horizon response, when it came to exposure standards, OSHA was able to say that "meeting existing OSHA standards was not adequate." But he explained OSHA's policy of operating in compliance rather than enforcement mode during an emergency response by saying that issuing citations under such circumstances is not the most effective way to achieve immediate abatement.</p> <p>Also still to be resolved is how environmental hazards are to be assessed in privately owned indoor spaces and how they are to be safely cleaned of toxic contamination. A combination of inadequate safety standards and "jurisdictional issues between EPA and OSHA" resulted in there never being any comprehensive systematic assessment of indoor contamination nor any comprehensive guidelines for clean-up or remediation - whether of residential or commercial space, explained Micki Siegel de Hernandez in an interview before the conference. "It's not just a question of looking back and saying 'You did this wrong,'" she said, "but so many things were predicated by those initial decisions and set in motion ongoing exposures." Determining the geographic extent of affected areas is also an issue to be resolved. John Howard cited the need for improved hazard mapping, while representatives of community groups highlighted the inadequacy of boundaries drawn during the 9/11 response. The upshot is the concern that indoor areas continue to be contaminated with World Trade Center dust.</p> <p>Ten years later, emotions are still raw. As NIEHS Worker Education Program director Chip Hughes said, "The view from the ground is not good. All the issues you're talking about are still palpable and real." People exposed to World Trade Center dust with its treacherous mix of toxic particulates and invisible chemicals are sick, and some have died. A number of those directly affected shared personal testimony during the conference. "The health effects and sickness experienced today is a result of lies," said Congressman Jerry Nadler. "Those lies undoubtedly compounded the damage caused by 9/11," he said. "It's our moral duty to address the unfinished clean-up."</p> <p>In her politically charged closing remarks, Linda Rae Murray, president of the American Public Health Association also emphasized morality. "If someone's sick, it shouldn't matter how much time they spent on the pile and what block they live on," she said. "If they're sick, if they're human beings, they deserve the best care we can give them."</p> <p>"Are we ready for the next 9/11?" asked NYCOSH in its title for the day's meeting. At the end of the day Murray offered her assessment, a resounding, "No," and cited years of policymaking that have eroded support for a broad array of educational, health and social service programs needed to answer the specific questions raised by the 9/11 response and enable Americans to truly safeguard worker and community health. The challenges are enormous but as they day's speakers made clear - we know what needs to be done. </p> <p><em>Elizabeth Grossman is the author of <a href="http://chasingmolecules.org/">Chasing Molecules: Poisonous Products, Human Health, and the Promise of Green Chemistry</a>, <a href="http://hightechtrash.com/">High Tech Trash: Digital Devices, Hidden Toxics, and Human Health</a>, and other books. Her work has appeared in a variety of publications including Scientific American, Salon, The Washington Post, The Nation, Mother Jones, Grist, and the Huffington Post. Chasing Molecules was chosen by Booklist as one of the Top 10 Science &amp; Technology Books of 2009 and won a 2010 Gold Nautilus Award for investigative journalism.</em></p> </div> <span><a title="View user profile." href="/author/egrossman" lang="" about="/author/egrossman" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">egrossman</a></span> <span>Fri, 09/23/2011 - 09:11</span> <div class="field field--name-field-blog-tags field--type-entity-reference field--label-inline"> <div class="field--label">Tags</div> <div class="field--items"> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/environmental-health" hreflang="en">Environmental health</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/occupational-health-safety" hreflang="en">Occupational Health &amp; Safety</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/911" hreflang="en">9/11</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/dust" hreflang="en">dust</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/epa" hreflang="en">EPA</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/osha" hreflang="en">OSHA</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/world-trade-center" hreflang="en">world trade center</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/environmental-health" hreflang="en">Environmental health</a></div> </div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-blog-categories field--type-entity-reference field--label-inline"> <div class="field--label">Categories</div> <div class="field--items"> <div class="field--item"><a href="/channel/technology" hreflang="en">Technology</a></div> </div> </div> <section> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1871461" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1316850140"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>i am still fitting for workers comp from 9/11 dust still cant feed my famely thank you to new york lawers</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1871461&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="I-eNk9XadshjoPkSpWSdzKQbLk9RmT-JcoZIDQX0hJc"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">genenew6 (not verified)</span> on 24 Sep 2011 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1871461">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1871462" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1317396150"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Had First Responders been provided proper FFPR's(respirators), per the Precautionary Principle, much of the<br /> ill health could have been mitigated.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1871462&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="Tass35-4auYzj9O1E6La6pKZQE1yBrrmxgCIiOArD_o"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Dr. Gabor Lantos (not verified)</span> on 30 Sep 2011 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1871462">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> </section> <ul class="links inline list-inline"><li class="comment-forbidden"><a href="/user/login?destination=/thepumphandle/2011/09/23/ten-years-later-world-trade-ce%23comment-form">Log in</a> to post comments</li></ul> Fri, 23 Sep 2011 13:11:32 +0000 egrossman 61375 at https://www.scienceblogs.com OSHA standards are game-changers, David Michaels tells American Industrial Hygiene Association members https://www.scienceblogs.com/thepumphandle/2011/06/01/osha-standards-are-game-change <span>OSHA standards are game-changers, David Michaels tells American Industrial Hygiene Association members</span> <div class="field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field--item"><p>by Elizabeth Grossman</p> <p>"With what's on the table in Washington now, you may think the technical phrase is 'job-killing OSHA standards' but standards save lives," said David Michaels, Assistant Secretary of Labor of Occupational Safety and Health, in his address to the <a href="http://www.aiha.org/Pages/default.aspx">American Industrial Hygiene Association</a> meeting in Portland, Oregon on May 18th. "OSHA doesn't kill jobs. OSHA stops jobs from killing workers."</p> <p>To occupational health and safety professionals, this is not news - and it's a message that Michaels has taken on the road over the past year - but in the current anti-regulatory political climate, this message is noteworthy. </p> <!--more--><p>"I think the evidence is very clear that OSHA standards save lives and also save jobs," said Michaels. He pointed to the history of OSHA standards beginning with exposure limits on asbestos, benzene, cotton dust, lead, and vinyl chloride in the 1970s, grain-handling, evacuation, and trenching standards in the 1980s, and continuing with the 1991 blood-borne pathogen and 2001 needle-stick standards. (This <a href="http://www.osha.gov/osha40/timeline.html">OSHA timeline</a> describes these and other standards.) While celebrating OSHA's achievements over the past 40 years - "The basic idea that workers have a right to a safe workplace wasn't there before OSHA," Michaels noted - he also acknowledged how much still needs to be done to ensure workplace safety, including the issuing of new standards, many long overdue. </p> <p>"Standards are the game-changers," said Michaels, who noted that industry has often opposed a new standard saying it would be detrimentally costly - he used the example of the 1974 <a href="http://www.deceitanddenial.org/docs/timeline.pdf">vinyl chloride</a> standard - but later found compliance hurt neither competitiveness nor jobs. While fully understanding the health hazards of a chemical like vinyl chloride is a matter of some complexity, two of the other workplace hazards that surfaced as concerns during Michaels' talk and in the 90-minute long question-and-answer session that followed later in the morning are strikingly simple: dust and noise. What was also striking, at least to me, is <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/thepumphandle/2010/12/labor_depts_2011_plan_for_new.php">how difficult it has been to enact</a> regulations to ensure what would seem to be easily accomplished safety measures.</p> <p><strong>Old hazards, long struggles</strong><br /> To dramatize how long it can take to achieve a standard that truly safeguards workers' health, Michaels showed a film clip from 1937, in which <a href="http://historymatters.gmu.edu/d/128">Labor Secretary Frances Perkins</a> - whose portrait <a href="http://www.mpbn.net/Home/tabid/36/ctl/ViewItem/mid/3478/ItemId/15719/Default.aspx">Maine Governor Paul LePage</a> recently banished from its place of honor in the state capitol - speaks forcefully of the need to protect workers from the dangers of silica and rock dust. In those days, Michaels reminded the audience, company officials wore respiratory protection but workers didn't. "There were thousands of cases of silicosis about 75 years ago," he said. But the hazard is still with us, he continued, and there's very convincing evidence of its association with lung cancer, renal disease, rheumatoid arthritis, scleroderma, and other autoimmune diseases.</p> <p>"Blasting, foundries, machine shops, auto repair, dental labs, ceramics, lots of activities create respirable particles. There's lots of silica out there and we know we can control it," said Michaels. "I think it's time to issue a silica standard that is actually preventative."</p> <p> "Our existing PEL (personal exposure limit) is not protective," said Michaels. "To say it is outdated is generous." <a href="http://www.lhsfna.org/index.cfm?objectID=AE8FC9B9-D56F-E6FA-97AB0E74EAF73428">States</a> have progressed far beyond federal OSHA in regulating silica-dust exposure. California regulations require water and local exhaust systems to control this hazardous dust, while in New Jersey dry cutting and grinding is simply banned, he explained. "It's time for OSHA to catch up with them."</p> <p>To that end, OSHA would be issuing a proposal for a new silica standard in the next few months, said Michaels, adding that the agency was also thinking about a comprehensive health standard for crystalline silica. <a href="http://coeh.berkeley.edu/people/apers_educ/wilson.htm">Michael P. Wilson</a>, incoming director of UC Berkeley's Labor Occupational Health Program, asked if emergency workers, who often have to cut concrete in the aftermath of disasters, would be covered by any new standards. </p> <p>During the question-and-answer session Michaels was asked about another preventable workplace hazard for which a standard of increased stringency is long overdue: noise. Earlier this year, <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/thepumphandle/2011/02/with_friends_like_thesewhite_h.php">OSHA withdrew a proposed interpretation of its noise standard</a>. To the question, "When is OSHA going to review its hearing conservation standard?" Michaels responded by saying, "That is an area of great frustration and sadness." There are reasonable and inexpensive ways to prevent noise and hearing loss, said Michaels, pointing out that not having a more protective hearing standard was actually a competitive disadvantage for the U.S. "If a U.S manufacturer wants a quieter machine it will likely buy one from Europe. European machines are quieter than American machines because they have to be."</p> <p>Another OSHA proposed requirement, withdrawn earlier this year, that Michaels said would be revisited is the requirement that employers specify recording workplace injuries and illnesses specify which of these are <a href="http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2011-05-17/html/2011-11965.htm">musculoskeletal</a> in nature. Current figures on illness and injuries are not very good, said Michaels, and this would improve information gathering. Michaels also said he hoped to discourage employers from offering incentives for keeping recordable injury rates low, which often translate to workers not reporting the injuries they receive on the job (Michaels called it one of his "pet peeves," and noted that withholding benefits from a worker who reports an injury <a href="http://www.osha.gov/pls/oshaweb/owadisp.show_document?p_table=STANDARDS&amp;p_id=11333">violates the OSHA Act</a>. )</p> <p>Michaels' message was clear. What is not clear is how any new OSHA standards will fare politically at a time when so much attention is focused on short-term profits.</p> <p><em>Elizabeth Grossman is the author of <a href="http://chasingmolecules.org/">Chasing Molecules: Poisonous Products, Human Health, and the Promise of Green Chemistry</a>, <a href="http://hightechtrash.com/">High Tech Trash: Digital Devices, Hidden Toxics, and Human Health</a>, and other books. Her work has appeared in a variety of publications including Scientific American, Salon, The Washington Post, The Nation, Mother Jones, Grist, and the Huffington Post. Chasing Molecules was chosen by Booklist as one of the Top 10 Science &amp; Technology Books of 2009 and won a 2010 Gold Nautilus Award for investigative journalism.</em></p> </div> <span><a title="View user profile." href="/author/egrossman" lang="" about="/author/egrossman" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">egrossman</a></span> <span>Wed, 06/01/2011 - 03:46</span> <div class="field field--name-field-blog-tags field--type-entity-reference field--label-inline"> <div class="field--label">Tags</div> <div class="field--items"> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/occupational-health-safety" hreflang="en">Occupational Health &amp; Safety</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/osha" hreflang="en">OSHA</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/aiha" hreflang="en">AIHA</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/dust" hreflang="en">dust</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/noise" hreflang="en">noise</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/occupational-health" hreflang="en">Occupational health</a></div> </div> </div> <section> </section> <ul class="links inline list-inline"><li class="comment-forbidden"><a href="/user/login?destination=/thepumphandle/2011/06/01/osha-standards-are-game-change%23comment-form">Log in</a> to post comments</li></ul> Wed, 01 Jun 2011 07:46:59 +0000 egrossman 61287 at https://www.scienceblogs.com A Mysterious Light on the Darkest Night https://www.scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2010/05/05/a-mysterious-light-on-the-dark <span>A Mysterious Light on the Darkest Night</span> <div class="field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field--item"><blockquote><p>It will shine still brighter when night is about you. May it be a light for you in dark places, when all other lights go out. -<em>J.R.R. Tolkien</em></p></blockquote> <p>The night sky is no stranger to most of you. Once the Sun goes down in the west, the sky darkens, turning ever-deeper shades of blue until it approaches blackness, and stars and planets begin to come out against the fading backdrop.</p> <p></p><center></center><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2010/05/moon-and-venus-setting-at-dusk.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-22957" title="moon-and-venus-setting-at-dusk" src="/files/startswithabang/files/2010/05/moon-and-venus-setting-at-dusk-600x900.jpg" alt="" width="600" height="900" /></a> <p>Many things pollute the darkening sky, and can obscure your vision of the dimmest objects in the sky. Getting away from the city and light pollution is important, as is having clear skies without too many clouds in them.</p> <p>But even with those conditions -- an isolated location and a cloudless night -- you need a little more for some really great astronomical viewing.</p> <p></p><center></center><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2010/05/FullMoon.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-22958" title="FullMoon" src="/files/startswithabang/files/2010/05/FullMoon.jpg" alt="" width="600" height="450" /></a> <p>Sadly, the biggest, brightest, most prominent object in the night sky is <em>also</em> the biggest culprit for ruining a good night with a telescope. How so? Even though the largest Full Moon appears about <em>450,000 times dimmer</em> than the Sun (!), it's still nearly <strong>2,000 times brighter</strong> than the next brightest things in the sky, the planet Venus and the International Space Station!</p> <p>The Moonlight, as it passes through the atmosphere, diffuses throughout the sky, creating a background light that makes viewing faint objects much more difficult. And when I say more difficult, I mean that you need binoculars to see things with the Moon out that would be visible to the naked eye otherwise, and a substantial telescope to see things that would otherwise be visible with binoculars.</p> <p>But this is easy to plan for; the phases of the Moon --as well as Moonset and Moonrise times -- are well-known and predictable, so you can avoid the Moon if you want to see really dark skies. In fact, if you get far away from any cities and get a cloudless, Moonless night, you just might see something like this:</p> <p></p><center></center><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2010/05/telescope_at_night2.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-22959" title="telescope_at_night2" src="/files/startswithabang/files/2010/05/telescope_at_night2.jpg" alt="" width="568" height="426" /></a> <p>It's the Milky Way! But this gorgeous sight -- which paints a brilliant streak across the heavens -- has a terrible drawback. You see, the Milky Way is bright enough and diffuse enough that, when it's out, the very faintest objects close to it in the sky get washed out.</p> <p>That's right. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Available_light">Ambient light</a> from the Milky Way, despite the low brightness of the light itself, can make it hard to see faint objects near the galactic plane. Want to see what I'm talking about? Take a look at the video below.</p> <p></p><center> <object width="500" height="315" classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /><param name="src" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/IS0RBiHeOWY&amp;hl=en_US&amp;fs=1&amp;border=1" /><param name="allowfullscreen" value="true" /><embed width="500" height="315" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/IS0RBiHeOWY&amp;hl=en_US&amp;fs=1&amp;border=1" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always"></embed></object><p></p></center>So these are the four things we need to have very dark skies: <ol> <li>No light pollution from man-made sources (like cities).</li> <li>A clear, cloudless night.</li> <li>No Moon in the sky; either a New Moon, a Moon that's already set, or a Moon that hasn't yet risen are all ideal.</li> <li>And finally, the Milky Way, ideally, will have either already set or will not yet have risen.</li> </ol> <p>Other than that, is there anything you can do to <em>maximize</em> how dark the night sky is? Well, the simplest thing ever: you want the Sun to be as close as possible to the <em>opposite side of the Earth</em> from you. In other words, you want to look at the sky as close to midnight as possible. By midnight, I mean not 12:00 AM, necessarily, but the time when the Sun is midway between Sunset and Sunrise, regardless of the time of year.</p> <p></p><center></center><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2010/05/lec08_08.gif"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-22960" title="lec08_08" src="/files/startswithabang/files/2010/05/lec08_08.gif" alt="" width="394" height="296" /></a> <p>So you arrange for all four of those things to be true: far from all sources of light pollution, no clouds, no Moon, and no Milky Way, and then you look up at Midnight. What do you suppose you'll see? Gorgeous, dark skies, dotted with stars, satellites, and maybe some of the brighter galaxies, star clusters, and nebulae, right? <em>Right?</em> Well, here's a picture of what the sky under these conditions looks like.</p> <p></p><center></center><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2010/05/gegenschein_eso_big.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-22961" title="gegenschein_eso_big" src="/files/startswithabang/files/2010/05/gegenschein_eso_big-600x423.jpg" alt="" width="600" height="423" /></a> <p><em>Really?!</em> If we went through all that trouble to get the darkest skies possible, then what the hell is that <strong>glow</strong> up there?</p> <p>Say hello to the <strong><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gegenschein">gegenschein</a></strong>, which is German for <strong>counter-glow</strong>. This diffuse light is really unexpected at first glance, because it appears brightest directly <em>180° opposite</em> to where the Sun is! And wouldn't you expect that to be the <em>darkest</em> part of the sky? (Note, by the way, that if you're clever, you can photograph it even if the galaxy is still up, as shown below.)</p> <p></p><center></center><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2010/05/cd25allsky8-p.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-22962" title="cd25allsky8-p" src="/files/startswithabang/files/2010/05/cd25allsky8-p.jpg" alt="" width="512" height="504" /></a> <p>Well, there's got to be a good explanation for this. So where does this mysterious light come from? To understand this, I'm going to have to take you back in time about 4.5 billion years, to the formation of our Solar System.</p> <p>What were things like back then?</p> <p></p><center></center><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2010/05/srvr-thumb-500x400-48411.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-22963" title="srvr-thumb-500x400-48411" src="/files/startswithabang/files/2010/05/srvr-thumb-500x400-48411.jpeg" alt="" width="500" height="400" /></a> <p>We were all a slowly rotating cloud of gas and dust. Most of this gas and dust collapsed into the Sun, while a little bit collapsed into a disk orbiting the newly formed star.</p> <p>What happened next in the disk was that the little bits of dust and gas attracted each other, and as they gathered together in larger and larger clumps, they formed planets, moons, asteroids, and comets. <em>Mostly</em>, that is.</p> <p></p><center></center><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2010/05/014-planet_formation.gif"><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-22964" title="014-planet_formation" src="/files/startswithabang/files/2010/05/014-planet_formation-600x1465.gif" alt="" width="600" height="1465" /></a> <p>You see, a little bit of this gas and dust remained, and was never captured by a planet, moon, or other large object. We call this <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interplanetary_dust_cloud">interplanetary dust</a>, and it exists exactly where you think it would: in between the planets of our Solar System. Some of the dust gets ejected from random gravitational encounters, but just as much gets captured by random gravitational encounters, so the total amount present at any given time is relatively constant.</p> <p>And just like the Moon reflects sunlight back at us -- reflecting the largest amount back when the Moon is full (and opposite the Sun) -- this interplanetary dust does the same thing, reflecting sunlight as well. And the dust that appears <em>opposite</em> to the Sun at any given point reflects the most light back at us, creating the gegenschein!</p> <p></p><center></center><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2010/05/gegenschein_naoj.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-22965" title="gegenschein_naoj" src="/files/startswithabang/files/2010/05/gegenschein_naoj.jpg" alt="" width="550" height="347" /></a> <p>But let's think about this a little harder. This counter glow isn't spread out evenly all along the plane where the planets orbit and where the dust lives. It's <em>concentrated</em> at this point directly opposite to the Sun's location. Is there anything special that happens nearby that's directly opposite the Sun's location?</p> <p></p><center></center><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2010/05/704px-Lagrange_points2.png"><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-22966" title="704px-Lagrange_points2" src="/files/startswithabang/files/2010/05/704px-Lagrange_points2-600x511.png" alt="" width="600" height="511" /></a> <p>There's a special point, known as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lagrangian_point">the L2 Lagrange point</a>, where the combined gravitational force of the Sun and the Earth allow you to have a perfect orbit that goes around the Sun and always remains a fixed distance away from the Earth. You can do the math and figure out just how far this distance is, and what you find -- perhaps remarkably -- is that it's <em>just slightly</em> farther away than the Earth's shadow reaches!</p> <p></p><center></center><a href="/files/startswithabang/files/2010/05/719px-L2_rendering.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-22967" title="719px-L2_rendering" src="/files/startswithabang/files/2010/05/719px-L2_rendering-600x500.jpg" alt="" width="600" height="500" /></a> <p>This is the same point we send our best space telescopes up to, precisely because they will remain close to Earth, in relatively stable conditions, and can orbit this stable L2 point. Our satellites WMAP, PLANCK, and the Herschel Space Telescope are already up there. But you know what else is already up there? <strong>Some of this interplanetary dust!</strong> Since this is the closest concentration of dust to us, it reflects the most light back at us, and that's why this gegenschein (counter glow) is so bright and so localized at this one place in the sky!</p> <p>If you can see this where you are, it isn't because you've been celebrating cinco de mayo too hard; this is real! (If you have any, I'd <strong>love</strong> to see your photos of it, too.) So that's the mysterious light that you can see in the darkest skies on Earth, and that's where it comes from!</p> </div> <span><a title="View user profile." href="/startswithabang" lang="" about="/startswithabang" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">esiegel</a></span> <span>Wed, 05/05/2010 - 08:59</span> <div class="field field--name-field-blog-tags field--type-entity-reference field--label-inline"> <div class="field--label">Tags</div> <div class="field--items"> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/astronomy-0" hreflang="en">Astronomy</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/solar-system" hreflang="en">Solar System</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/anti" hreflang="en">anti</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/anti-solar" hreflang="en">anti-solar</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/antisolar" hreflang="en">antisolar</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/counter" hreflang="en">counter</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/counter-glow" hreflang="en">counter-glow</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/counterglow" hreflang="en">counterglow</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/dust" hreflang="en">dust</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/gegenschein" hreflang="en">gegenschein</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/glow" hreflang="en">glow</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/l2" hreflang="en">L2</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/lagrange" hreflang="en">lagrange</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/lagrange-point" hreflang="en">lagrange point</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/plane" hreflang="en">plane</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/point" hreflang="en">point</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/solar" hreflang="en">solar</a></div> <div class="field--item"><a href="/tag/zodiacal-dust" hreflang="en">zodiacal dust</a></div> </div> </div> <section> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1495652" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1273069154"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Fantastic explanation and walk through. Thanks!</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1495652&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="_LRjAfcPTaOKo7nVdHq-XfK9kJInMkuI-tcDdvl0rkk"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">NewEnglandBob (not verified)</span> on 05 May 2010 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1495652">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1495653" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1273071018"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Um...</p> <p>The lifetime of dust in the Solar System is very short - none of it is primordial. That's why dust signatures round stars are taken as evidence of the presence of asteroids or comets. (In fact, the Wikipedia article you linked says as much, so add linking to something you didn't read to your catalogue of sins)</p> <p>And isn't it just geometry, like the halo round your head's shadow on any rough surface - I don't think L2 has anything to do with it?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1495653&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="2wGelyThW0RU-XC-kIR4CRFI7OCXdItPFo2phcjDWp4"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a rel="nofollow" href="http://sageofgodalming.livejournal.com/" lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Vagueofgodalming (not verified)</a> on 05 May 2010 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1495653">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1495654" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1273074751"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Huh. I never thought of looking for the earth's gegenschein. The effect is a popular trick with people walking up high mountains - make sure the sun is somewhere behind you and casting a nice shadow onto the clouds below, point your camera at the shadow of your head and photograph your gegenschein. Then again, it's much easier if you live somewhere where you get this thing called 'snow' because you don't have to try to get a nice shadow on a cloud. I think clouds work better though - or I could just be senile.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1495654&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="7OwYhw5gRp4P1U_unaHkxsW96RyuV1tVqnQEtSsXERs"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">MadScientist (not verified)</span> on 05 May 2010 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1495654">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1495655" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1273074966"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>@Vague #2: You need something to scatter the light, otherwise the light continues to travel forward and you see nothing at all.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1495655&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="j3R4-a_tORBDtTDU91xl5jUEOqY2OLhFuF-BQhqDgWU"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">MadScientist (not verified)</span> on 05 May 2010 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1495655">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1495656" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1273089330"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Well, logicaly following, there would be a L2 Lagrange point between the Milky Way and each satalite galaxy, or perhaps Andromeda, or even on a grander scale of cluster to cluster, or even a grander scale yet of supercluster to supercluster.</p> <p>Which really begs the question...Are there established L2 points between supermassive Black holes and are we looking?</p> <p>Granted the farther out we look the L2 must be receding.</p> <p>Would this be a logical place to look through to detect dark matter?</p> <p>Or establish a base line for other observations?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1495656&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="qFqUdM42-WFuE9btZXsCSxt9_B9f4Vup0SjxrhVvPY8"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Sphere Coupler (not verified)</span> on 05 May 2010 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1495656">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1495657" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1273092255"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>great post!</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1495657&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="hmaOuk-sxuP9yH5GkuWs6_JN-FVR5WxSZ9_4XGhO8Wk"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">paul (not verified)</span> on 05 May 2010 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1495657">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1495658" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1273110641"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Brilliant Explanation!!</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1495658&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="pqfzC13IEUiEpiCxK3xlYJIRVOgqiMQBE5vbwtCPnQY"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a rel="nofollow" href="http://productivelylazy.wordpress.com" lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Sriram (not verified)</a> on 05 May 2010 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1495658">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1495659" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1273115352"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>The L2 point is an unstable point for orbiting objects (unlike L4 and L5). No dust would accumulate there over time, so gegenschein is "only" a low-intensity extention of zodiacal light.<br /> As an analogy, the full moon is substantially brighter than two half moons since you do not have any shadows in your line of sight -likewise, the interplanetary dust grains seem extra bright when looking straight away from the position of the sun.<br /> NB -none of this makes the gegenschein less cool :-)<br /> -In regard to trapping objects at specific parts of the Earth's orbit, L4 and L5 may hold some lunar ejecta thrown out from meteorite impacts on the moon. In terms of delta-V, such fragments may be easier to retrieve than sending a sample-return probe to the lunar surface....</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1495659&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="7n8_kyYND5rOpCSs4tN7Nn0xMnHUvG_eUNqFlr6VYCw"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Birger Johansson (not verified)</span> on 05 May 2010 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1495659">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1495660" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1273115647"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Regarding lunar ejecta; I meant the L4 and L5 points of Earth's orbit around the sun, not the moon's orbit around the Earth.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1495660&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="HkLgiM7VLYe7Q0vI1ibk8eq3LgUjGQNjqlrF_HebiMk"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Birger Johansson (not verified)</span> on 05 May 2010 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1495660">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1495661" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1273132809"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Great post Ethan, as always!</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1495661&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="oI_ZJxuuJF_Ltmzc3mwAv8ecQ7_JqMsVOuQgP0TsBPM"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Dave W. (not verified)</span> on 06 May 2010 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1495661">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1495662" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1273182978"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Well that was a misfire, when I spoke 0f L2 in comment 5 I was thinking L1, anyway "heres a pretty thing"</p> <p><a href="http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap100504.html">http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap100504.html</a></p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1495662&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="qxV6h6MkC3MLmW8SlP47kc1-GmzGdyIUXkZ26jvRlvA"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Sphere Coupler (not verified)</span> on 06 May 2010 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1495662">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1495663" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1273240176"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Great post.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1495663&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="NT-BbaEnxCGnOgfWN-tYiFbpx5NKUugCGqsHQFzC_ic"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Anonymous Coward (not verified)</span> on 07 May 2010 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1495663">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1495664" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1273308932"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>MadScientist: what Birger Johansson said.</p> <p>However, <i>all</i> orbits of dust particles are unstable in the Solar System because of Poynting-Robertson, etc. But that doesn't mean you don't get concentrations of dust, e.g. Earth's resonant ring, which was inadvertently discovered by Spitzer (the scope, not the bloke). So it's possible L2 has a concentration (gravity alone won't tell you because of the nongravitational forces). It's just that I haven't seen any suggestion anywhere else that it does, and the Gegenschein is usually explained with reference to the Opposition Effect.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1495664&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="91eCF8pA2bSoseCvqv6x8PlhfBU2OXSnHXQ1O0fAuOs"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <a rel="nofollow" href="http://sageofgodalming.livejournal.com/" lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Vagueofgodalming (not verified)</a> on 08 May 2010 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1495664">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1495665" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1438318172"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>You are so full of shit. The gegenschien DESTROYS heliocentric mode. The shad ow of the earth would not diminish like you say in your lame cartoon. The TRUE model is the concave earth, where the sun is inside the earth and its light is wrapping around and converging at the antisolar point. Lunar eclipses are not the shadow of earth, but simply when the moon exists the illumination zone at the convergence point, which is funnel shaped. Watch my videos, I explain this perfectly. Lord Steven Christ.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1495665&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="rpE5Zp4ol-fG66tB3CPbADpvFjzonOVui9KcikRgY44"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Steven J Christopher (not verified)</span> on 31 Jul 2015 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1495665">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1495666" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1438335650"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Nope, complete bollocks there, old boy.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1495666&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="GuJL-5Jgeot8fR6OikyJekrNJ7QT0V4KLT2HxymmGK0"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 31 Jul 2015 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1495666">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1495667" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1438365092"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>'allo,'allo,'allo? Not the reincarnation of 'rimmer9' by some strange coincidence?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1495667&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="KONb6npdBlAEQk19lu_IALBhhp0v0EfUgqQcJHlY8AE"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">PJ (not verified)</span> on 31 Jul 2015 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1495667">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1495668" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1438386731"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Do't mention his name three times, PJ, it summons it from the pit of hell....</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1495668&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="RLYHB-etgq1W_WE8m-0EMSxeaOcfp6alz7Pqe5pykn0"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 31 Jul 2015 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1495668">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1495669" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1438395363"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>That's even worthy of the dump thread.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1495669&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="xQXvo_MjwB958h1_WM7FM-8aEQDnXwW0_bpUC2_tLBA"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Ragtag Media (not verified)</span> on 31 Jul 2015 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1495669">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1495670" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1438395396"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>"NOT even"</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1495670&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="BMOqnKRHFg5YIfQK89YxZn7zMIk5Bhi12mxFe-VfTUk"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Ragtag Media (not verified)</span> on 31 Jul 2015 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1495670">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1495671" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1438397703"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Since 'heaven' and 'hell' are only a state of mind, I think we are perfectly safe from that outcome. :)</p> <p>Hey, Tex, you haven't got the 'dump' to 800 yet. Slowing down, are you? Self control starting to kick in a little bit, maybe?</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1495671&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="yidyfLQrC2QMSG_1dk3RxZhHiGRvOX1d5_U4D1vtbew"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">PJ (not verified)</span> on 31 Jul 2015 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1495671">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> <article data-comment-user-id="0" id="comment-1495672" class="js-comment comment-wrapper clearfix"> <mark class="hidden" data-comment-timestamp="1438397898"></mark> <div class="well"> <strong></strong> <div class="field field--name-comment-body field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field--item"><p>Yeah, problem with that though is riomar doesn't appear to have a mind. So it's stateless.</p> </div> <drupal-render-placeholder callback="comment.lazy_builders:renderLinks" arguments="0=1495672&amp;1=default&amp;2=en&amp;3=" token="MMU6CynWhwna48_BHWEN-qo_wvdf1iuictFh-oS4qHk"></drupal-render-placeholder> </div> <footer> <em>By <span lang="" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">Wow (not verified)</span> on 31 Jul 2015 <a href="https://www.scienceblogs.com/taxonomy/term/9108/feed#comment-1495672">#permalink</a></em> <article typeof="schema:Person" about="/user/0"> <div class="field field--name-user-picture field--type-image field--label-hidden field--item"> <a href="/user/0" hreflang="und"><img src="/files/styles/thumbnail/public/default_images/icon-user.png?itok=yQw_eG_q" width="100" height="100" alt="User Image" typeof="foaf:Image" class="img-responsive" /> </a> </div> </article> </footer> </article> </section> <ul class="links inline list-inline"><li class="comment-forbidden"><a href="/user/login?destination=/startswithabang/2010/05/05/a-mysterious-light-on-the-dark%23comment-form">Log in</a> to post comments</li></ul> Wed, 05 May 2010 12:59:49 +0000 esiegel 35003 at https://www.scienceblogs.com