With Tropical Storm Alberto nearing landfall, this seems like as good a time as any to talk about hurricanes and global climate change. With legions of reporters standing by to cover the storm, and scrambling for things to talk about while they're waiting, someone's bound to talk about the question of a link between this hurricane season and global warming. They've already been primed by former President Bill Clinton, who linked Republican policies, global warming, and increased numbers of hurricanes at a fundraiser yesterday. If this season is anywhere near as active as predicted, I think we're going to be hearing a lot more people talking about that relationship as the summer goes on.
In terms of the science, at least as I understand it, I don't think a firm link can be made as to whether this particular hurricane season is a product of global warming. The science just isn't that certain yet - we don't have enough of a historical record to examine, and we don't understand hurricane formation well enough to make that call. We should be clear about that. We should also be clear that we can't rule out the connection, either - this is a case where uncertain means uncertain.
That doesn't mean that we can't say anything about the effects of climate change on weather. We might not be able to link specific storms or specific hurricane seasons to human effects on the environment, but we can talk about trends. On the whole, we can expect that global warming will result in more frequent severe weather. (That's on top of the changes in weather patterns, sea level rise, and ecological effects.) Some hurricane seasons may be relatively quiet, and some storms weak, but on the whole it is likely that the climate changes are going to lead to more active seasons and stronger storms. That might not be proven beyond an unreasonable doubt, but it's well enough established that even the legendary insurance company Lloyds of London is concerned about it. The folks at Lloyds have a pretty good track record. If their concern isn't a clue that it's time to act, I don't know what is. I just hope there's still time. Speking as a future ancestor, I'd like to give my descendants a reasonable chance of inheriting a world that's doesn't get described in the tour guides as, "a nice place to visit, but who wants to live there."
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I think a more accurate way to state the reason that we can't link a particular hurricane or hurricane season with AGW is that there is a difference between weather and climate. There is a wide variation of weather even within a given climate system. We have had record hot days since records were kept; one record does not a climate change make. Over time, a pattern of weather becomes what we call climate. Thus, we have to wait until the pattern becomes clear before we can say that the climate has changed.