subprime 1.6 mile high

I've spent the last couple of weeks at the Aspen Center for Physics.
As always, it has been productive and a pleasure, but I noticed one big change as I was puttering around town.

Real Easte Sales down 38%!

The Aspen housing market is outrageously high, and prices go up double digit percentages almost every year.
But, this year I noticed a lot of "for sale" signs wandering around, in neighbourhoods where in past years houses just did not stay on the market long enough for signs to go up.

Now, the caveat is that it is a small market, so there are large Poisson fluctuations in sales. But, for the first time that I recall, the ads for houses and condos now include "price reduced to sell" - by eyeball it looks like sellers are discounting 15-20% from initial asking price.
Yes, that $5 million 3BD/3BA can now be yours for a mere $4 million.
'course in a few weeks that will be, like, 2-and-sixpence, or about 3 Euros.
Sounds like the Russians are still buying...

As everywhere, the top of the market seems to be sticking though, the little place across the river for $67 million asking ain't budgingnah, wait, that was last week, looks like they dropped their asking 15%.
Or, if you wait a bit, one of the great Aspen Physicist Homes - the Flying Dog Ranch - is about to go on the market...

I'm figuring people in trouble with first houses, overextended on adjustable mortgages and/or about to lose bonus and jobs in the financial industry are having to get out, now. On top of normal turnover. As in many other high end markets.
Be interesting to see how low it goes.

Tags

More like this

Before we bought our current house, coming up on five years ago, we looked at another slightly larger house that's literally just around the corner. It hadn't officially been listed yet, but our agent (who, weirdly, lives right next door) showed it to us, and we thought very hard about it.…
Home sales are plummeting. In the Times, David Leonhardt focuses on Paramount, CA, site of the most precipitous drop in home sales in the country: Just south of Los Angeles, there is a small city called Paramount where houses have all but stopped selling. Since the summer, only about three homes a…
Academic term will start soon here, just in time for football season. Enrollment is high, due to demographic and economic factors, but, with the slowly developing funding crunch, will the students actually show up and register? Enrollment in institutions of higher education, in the US, is very high…
The Dartmouth investment banker and the Princeton professor. It would be interesting to trace the origin of the term "bailout" as applied to the Bush administration's plan since the phrase has locked in a specific framing of the issue that inflames populist anger and caters to House Republicans'…

Aspen's idyllic conference centers are where I first met the PharmGirl - we love it and go back regularly, especially this time of year. Scientists are often surprised at how reasonable restaurant prices are there given the NYC/LA quality of the food. But as you say, the real estate is still beyond belief even with this dramatic burst of the bubble.

What's blown me away is the price of real estate downvalley in Basalt and Carbondale. If we ever buy a vacation home, it sadly won't be in the Roaring Fork area.

Yeah, although I was shocked at the percentage cuts in asking prices the short time I was there - since the local free papers are half-real estate ads it was quite noticeable.
A surprising number of physicists own second homes or condos in Aspen - the most prominent had family money, and the good sense to invite their buds to come hang out in this nifty place they'd stumbled on - most of the "regular" physicists who own seem to have bought in the seventies or early eighties. They'll do well.