Astrophysicists like to quantify their estimates. One way to do that is to offer bets, with odds, on hypotheses or models being correct. There have been some famous bets, with spectacular odds.
We now have a new one, and a very daring one too.
Prof. Cole Miller gave today's Director's Blackboard talk:
Black Holes in Dense Star Clusters (video and podcast)
The main focus of the talk are the much speculated about "Intermediate Mass Black Holes" - black holes too massive to have descended from single stars, but not really the "Supermassive Black Holes" found in the centers of (most) galaxies.
Crudely speaking we're talking black holes with masses over about a hundred times the mass of the Sun, but less than maybe ten thousand times the mass of the Sun.
We think they may be out there, they can do lots of funky things for us, if they are (see talk) and there are varieties of interesting ways in which they may be made, but we cannot know for sure.
Now, Cole reminded us of a famous anecdote involving a renowned Michigan astronomer, who on presenting a black hole model, offered that he was not certain enough to bet his life, but he would bet his (very nice) car...
Cole then offered that he was in fact not too sure about making IMBHs in the local universe, but he might stake a dinner on it, which is actually reasonable.
However, he noted that it was much more solid physical reasoning to think IMBHs might be made at some point in the universe, particularly in the early universe - so on that point he would be willing to bet a dinner with Fred!
You must listen, and watch, the audience reaction at that point.
Never have I heard such a bold and surprising stance from a theorist.
This is truly putting your understanding of the universe to the test with the highest stakes.
Bravo.
You doubt?
Take Cole up on his bet... if you dare.
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I don't doubt, but I couldn't cover those stakes if I did.
It's too bad Cole doesn't drink because I think that most bets in astrophysics can quantify your confidence as low, medium, and high, translating to bottle of beer, bottle of wine, and bottle of scotch.
"he might stake a dinner on it" -- the referee suggests changing this to: "he might steak a dinner on it."
I've seen a number of bets now that are clearly intended to hedge people's bets - "I'll bet you a drink that this source I just found isn't as interesting as it looks" - that is, so that if you lose the bet it's because something very cool just happened. In fact, isn't this what the Stephen Hawking/Kip Thorne bet was?