No denial on The Nile

Bird flu popped up in poultry in Egypt in February of this year and within months the north African country registered more human cases (14) than any other outside of Asia. The last human case was in May and with the warm summer months detections in poultry waned as well. Then at the end of September birds again were shown infected in a village near Aswan, at the southern end of the Nile Valley.

WHO spokesman Hassan el-Bushra told IRIN that the infected animals, raised in the backyard of a house in the town of Edfu, have now been culled. Ministry of Health officials have "instigated the WHO-approved control measures, and no human infection has been reported", he said.

Animals within a one-kilometre radius of the site of infection have been culled and removed for sterile burial.
This year, Egypt suffered the worst outbreak of avian flu outside Asia. The disease was largely brought under control, although fears remained of a new outbreak. (IRIN via Alertnet)

So far there are still no human cases reported near that outbreak. But at the other end of the Nile Valley, near Alexandria, another human case has just been diagnosed, Egypt's 15th (6 deaths). The patient is a 39 year old female, hospitalized since October 4. She had a small flock of 11 ducks in her backyard, of which two died and she slaughtered the rest before becoming ill (Reuters). She is reported in stable condition on a ventilator and being treated with Tamiflu (IOL).

Egypt has an active vaccination program for commercial flocks but not for rural backyard poultry. Poultry remains a major source of high quality protein in this impoverished country.

So a two month lull in poultry reports is over and human cases are again appearing. Flu season is starting, with predictable results. Last year set new records for human cases and a large extension in the geographic reach of this virus. This year all of Africa lies before it. Expect more.

Timely reminder: This is Pandemic Flu Awareness Week.

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Revere, Not entirely on topic, but I figure this is as good a place as any to ask. What do you think is going on in India? Do you think it is possible that a less virulent form of H5N1 has gained H2H efficiency and is spreading there? The numbers of sick seem to be spreading like wildfire, hospitals are overwhelmed, and the death rates seem very high for the diseases in question. What's your take?

nancy: Don't really know. I'd only be speculating. Could be dengue, that's for sure. But could also be other things. Very hard to tell from press reports. It'll sort itself out. People are looking hard at it, I believe.