New bird flu cases: reading the tea leaves

You mention the things we are not seeing. Perhaps we are also not seeing Human H5N1 cases that are not being reported because countries are doing cover-ups to protect financial interests.

Meanwhile have we not seen an increase in the genetic changes that indicate Tamiflu resistance?

Do you have any charts on the numbers of poultry culls and deaths? They seem to be more than previous years which means that more opportunities for human infection exist. But what seems and what is are not always the same as your chart shows.

Meanwhile, Bangladesh reports 500,000 poultry workers out of work. This might well be a death sentence for them and their families given how poor Bangladesh already is. And as I have pointed out, each chicken culled is about 12 lbs of grain gone to waste. Given the tightness of world grain supplies this is a huge impact on the poor of the countries affected.

But of course it is not a pandemic yet, and the big fear of a pandemic is of course that we humans in the US are vulnerable. Meanwhile the human disaster of the loss of food and income in SE Asia doesn't affect have the power to move us in the same way.

K...I have been keeping a running tally for the last three years. Its pushing on 5 billion birds (poultry). Havent kept anything on the wild bird kills. I do know that generally speaking that when there has been a big bird kill, it shows up in humans on average and that I have kept...within about 3 months. Some were as little as a few days.

Cover up? Like I said, they'll acknowledge it when it crawls across the White House lawn.

Anyone caught Supari lately? Looks to me like she is trying to divert attention from the millions that are missing. She is talking about the weaponization of H5N1. Cool, its a doomsday bug if thats the case. Instead of 83.5% for the year we get 99% and world domination. I think she might be needing an intervention because she declares herself the Hand of God now.

urp!

MRK, Did you see the release on her book on Crofsblog?
http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2008/02/dr-supari-publi.html

Let's look at thing differently for just a moment....I've said this before.

Revere seems to point out that there is a much larger number of infected birds in places like Bangladesh. But the number of human cases remains stable and in fact are lower than some previous years. Maybe I'm looking at the data wrong, but there appears to be some good news in this data. Maybe not a burn out, but it certainly hasn't boiled over as some have predicted and most of us feared.

What do you think?

And before you say it, I understand that it can jump at anytime. But if it's trying to force open the door, it would seem to be having a hard time.

You mentioned four signals but listed only three. Did the virus get one? ;)

What I have always noticed is the lack of apparent cases among cullers. Most of the time there is not even a pretense of PPE type efforts and in any event there is rampent contamination in places with minimal health care infrastructure. Yet we rarely hear of cases involving persons associated with the culling effort. I am not drawing any conclusion from this but it is contrary to what one would expect given the exposure.

Must have been tired when I wrote it, Patch. My attitude? Unfortunately I would call it cautious pessimism.

I would love to think we have dodged a bullet. I don't however. It is ludicrous to think there aren't any infections in either Bangladesh or India. The reasons are political, cultural and financial. Don't test, take the right test at the wrong time, both work to obscure the situation.

The only positive I can identify is we aren't reading of any widespread disease or death. That there have to be missed cases is virtually certain. Why would these two nations not be hit with the same numbers that other nations see in morbidity and mortality? There aren't any reasons, ipso, facto they are there but under the radar.

MRK, it seems to me that to weaponize a RNA virus would be the height of stupidity, since there is no guarantee that it will remain in a form that your soldiers and populace would be able to be immunized against. Far more useful germs exist. Of course every country has their quota of insane idiots so it might be tried I suppose.

5 billion chickens - thanks for the count. That means about 60 billion lbs of grain or 30 million tons if I did my math right - again if I did my figures right that is about 6 days worth of world grain consumption. That wouldn't be so bad if we had excess, but in 2006 we were short 60 million tons. I haven't found the figure for 2007 yet.

http://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Grain/2006.htm

It looks like the power of Niman is getting to people. This bird outbreak in India has been over-hyped once again to the point where people are thinking there are conspiracies and cover-ups. Niman claimed it was spreading to humans, and then off she went....

Folks, the average number of h5n1 human infections is around 80 people per year. There are no cover-ups and the virus is just plain hard for people to catch. Why India is now being singled out in a cover-up, I have no idea, but it seems a little strange. H5N1 has been endemic in several countries for years with no human infections. This is India's first outbreak so why should we think they have more human cases than other countries?

The Niman-hype has truly confused people.

K. The Ruskies tried and failed repeatedly. They couldnt keep it from mutating. I got a briefing I think it was in the early 80's as part of a once a year chem/bio/nuke training and it came up. They had covered ebola, lassa, smallpox, botulism, and even schistosomiasis and then they ran up on flu. Now my security clearance at the time was lower than his but upgrading and it got big time upgraded after that. But the question came up about flu. Now this guy wasnt your average Sgt. instructor. It was a Major with about 15 in and he paused and went to the tent flap and looked out and then came back in and told us to take a knee.

Thats when the real story about flu came out and he said that of all of the diseases and that included smallpox, it scared him the most. Why we asked? He said because if they made a superbug, it would remain a superbug and come again, and again and again. In a round about way via questions we asked about flu and he said that the Russies were trying to weaponize it and basically if you got it you were dead and so were their subjects. If you got the superbug you might carry it all the way around the world. Then their big plan was to vaccinate their people only.. only it didnt work because of mutation. Never could get it right.

So why wasnt it deployed came the obvious question in the back. Because of mutation he said. Picture every animal on on the planet with some form of it. All of their test subjects died and apparently they were using the old Russian gig of mental patients and lower level dissidents. They gave them vaccine, they improved slightly and then they died. Their work on this spanned some 12 years or more in conjuction with all of the other bugs that the multiples of labs under the Vektor name had.

Yeah K.thats a lot of grain... Lets make ethanol or not. Seems that ethanol is far more worse on the environment than gasoline.... So we feed it to the cows and hungry people? Nope, it makes more hungry people who need more methane producing cows.

I dont know. With the population growing like a weed, BF might be the worlds weed killer.

I am reading excerpts from Supari's book. Its good to know that heroin use is alive and well in Indonesia. She actually thinks she is doing Gods Work and says so. Time for a drug test on this one.

I want my goddamn money back. I need it to fight wars. Revere can ask for his back too. He can use it in public health. Either way it is as I posited before. Either she has been paid to be an idiot that postures in the name of God, or she is an idiot with as many quirks as Adolph in the bunker.

Randy, jokes aside, I agree completely. This "health professional" requires comprehensive drug testing -- (((NOW)))

Indonesian H5N1 virus samples are required to know what is actually going on in the evolution of the strain & compare and contrast this data with other strains, etc.

This is like some bloody 1950s B-grade sci-fi-horror movie script!?!

Excerpt from a news article copyrighted The Financial Times Limited 2008:

"[In Supari's version of "Mein Kampf (My Struggle)", It's Time for the World to Change - the Divine Hand Behind Avian Influenza,] the deeply religious health minister details her drive to change the global order so that developed countries don't "exploit" access to virus samples. Their crimes, she says, are using the samples without permission to develop expensive medicines, which are then sold back to poor nations.

While the minister has undoubtedly stirred up a hornet's nest - not least by refusing to share most human virus samples for the last year - the hand of God was perhaps not omnipresent throughout the tome..."

If we had a completely clear -- and utterly unobstructed -- view of what went on in 1918 (1917 to 1920), then we would likely have a clear picture of what is going on, here.

We don't.

Therefore, we don't.

recent interview with Supari

http://tinyurl.com/2lmoyl

or the original:
http://birdflunewsflash.wordpress.com/2007/11/27/supari-the-amazing-ind…

Good find HJ, but this lady is not funny, she is outright dangerous. If,in fact, her motivation stems from her religious beliefs,ie. she wants to "punish the infidels", then I would suggest that we have an even bigger problem in Indon than we realised. (Hint: read Sam Harris) And if their PM buys into this as well (he contributed to her book, apparently) then I hope the diplomats are on the phone right now doing their job. And the WHO made her a Director? Really?

This just in from ProMed. Looks like mosquitoes could be a mechanical vector, which we have mused about here before.

Date: Fri 1 Feb 2008
Source: Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis. 2008 Feb;8(1):105-110 [edited]

Avian influenza H5N1 virus in mosquitoes collected from Thai poultry farm
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
The abstract reproduced below is from a paper published in the current issue of Vector-borne and Zoonotic Diseases. The paper is titled: "Detection of H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus from Mosquitoes Collected in an Infected Poultry Farm in Thailand. The authors are Barbazan P, Thitithanyanont A, Misse D, Dubot A, Bosc P, Luangsri N, Gonzalez JP, Kittayapong P.; at the Center of Excellence for Vectors
and Vector-Borne Diseases, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University at Salaya, Nakhonpathom, Thailand, and Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement, IRD-UR 178, Paris, France.

"Blood-engorged mosquitoes were collected at poultry farms during an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Central Thailand during October 2005. These mosquitoes tested positive for H5N1 virus by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Results were confirmed by limited sequencing of the H5 and N1 segments.

Infection and replication of this virus in the C6/36 mosquito cell line was confirmed by quantitative real-time PCR. However, transmission by mosquitoes was not evaluated, and further research is needed. Collecting and testing mosquitoes engorged with the blood of domestic or wild animals could be a valuable tool for veterinary and
public health authorities who conduct surveillance for H5N1 virus spread."

Re:-Marissa's post. Can H5N1 be transmitted via the blood to infect humans by mosquitos? If its into the lungs we know the outcome. If its in the blood stream does it attack the lung cells or is it like an ordinary flu only with some really bad outcomes? It would account for a lot of the supect cases that Niman speaks of producing positives but no deaths. Does it produce just really a really shitty flu as the body has the time to react and survive? .

Question then is whether a human infected in this manner can airborne it to another human?

Marissa? Revere?

MRK thanks for all that info. Wow....
Yes the planet needs less humans by far. I can't agree more. And since birth control won't accomplish that fast enough we are left with famine, disease, and war - or more likely all three. As you say, all the things we do to make humans live longer and better have pretty much just resulted in the delayed problem of too many humans. True that well off humans limit reproduction on their own. But the planet does not have enough resources for all the current residents to live that well.

But here is the rub - which humans to go earlier than they expected or hoped for eh? Easier to think about when it is faceless masses far away, than here at home. While some young men and women are willing to give up their lives for their country, would us older humans be ready for an early exit for the sake of the planet?

K-hit me at mail25368@bellsouth.net...I have graphic you would be stone amazed at. Save the world might be and is likely the cause of the ills we are having now.

Randy, Marissa: I was planning to put something up on the mosquito question tomorrow, assuming I have time. I am very jammed up at the moment so it will depend on how tired I am tonight. I think this is a very unlikely scenario.

Thanks MRK, but I am (of late) into retaining my on-line anonymity. So I will have to pass on your graphic.

Carl,

I too have wondered about the low infection rate of cullers. According to the local paper "The Indian Star" some where not trained but pressed into service. Their methods where crude and hampered by rain and bad weather.

I do not think we have doged the bullet. Unlike the start of AIDS in 1950s we are seeing H5N1 make its slow creep early.

The WHO has said H5N1 is endemic in Indonesia and India. They will be learing to deal with H5N1 for the forseable future. They can learn. May other countries learn as well *before* H5N1 spreads.

Being even partialy preapared for this makes one ready for other problems like anothers SARS or just a really bad stomach flu. If we can make a difference in global warming should be able to make a difference here IMHO.

Many are working - many more are reading

Regards
Kobie
"Everything I know never changed my mind as much as the one thing I did not" - Kobie Tau

Revere you write, Re: "the mosquito question -- I think this is a very unlikely scenario."

Would you be so kind as to "fastrack" (Oz tv terminology describing U.S. network shows broadcast in Oz a couple of days after you see them) an EM posting on "Detection of H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus from Mosquitoes Collected in an Infected Poultry Farm in Thailand"!?!

This is the first I've heard of H5 infected Mozzies. Given West Nile Virus is prevalent in the U.S. -- I wonder 'bout future evolution!?! Why are you so unconcerned!?!

Hello Jonny,

Probably because H5N1 in the blood stream would act more like ordinary flu. Coming on slowly. Harder for it to whack you and the body responding more slowly. It gets into the body now by the lungs.

Having seen the lungs of chickens and a cousin of the raccoon, and now a ferret on a necropsy I can only tell you that it looks like a burn victims outsides. Everything is a gooey, slimey mess. Are there cells that it can infect inside the body? Yeah, but its got to get there first and its going to make antibodies in the meantime to start swacking it... the immune response would be more slow. The problem with the lungs and infection is inflammation and the body kicks out funk to drown it and keep it from moving, it kills the cells to keep it from moving and in the process it kills you to keep you from moving.

But remember the transfusion thing from H1N1? It put antibodies from survivors into the sick, but you gotta have a live one to do it. Then someone to do it correctly and not give you something from the wrong blood type and it might not be such a bad thing to get bitten by sabre-toothed flying crickets if you think about it as technically on a low scale they are either vaccinating you or infecting you. Take your pick.

I am interested to see what Revere's read is on it. I think I asked Revere a while back or someone else did as to how many microns this mother was in size. Mosquito snorkel in size or less? How much virus does it take to get infected or just to be vaxxed by the stuff if they do have it. Live virus in low doses giving protection by infection? Hmmmmmm?

But as Supari is the Hand of God in this, perhaps we should consult with the Mother Superior to see what course we should take. Everyone knows that the weaponization of the bug would have to be animal borne in some manner right and that the US is working in concert with Oz?

Time to get them fucking Aussies man! They are such bad people for making vaccines that might save Indonesians. Shit! Only Indonesians can make vaccines for Indonesians.

Pack your bags for the hereafter Singleton....Supari is coming for you!

And you thought the OZ police were Baddasses! We got Supari on your tail now.

Perhaps more interesting than the virus is the behavior of public health officials. You'd think with all their (probably legitimate) fear, that they'd be interested in an effective treatment that already exists in every drug store on earth. But they're not.

We have a simple, safe, cheap approach to most viral diseases in vertebrates which has worked so far for West Nile virus (in 21 of 24 humans, 6 of 8 horses, and 6 of 12 birds since 2003), the common cold (n=1 human), and HIV (n=1 human). The Italian NIH (ISS) briefly looked at our approach in poultry infected with H5N1, but gave up prematurely. The WHO, although aware of our approach, has ignored it in favor of Tamiflu, Roche's far more expensive product.

Our avian flu trial is downloadable from our website, www.genomed.com (click on "Avian flu trial" link). It's free from our end. The meds we use cost about $1 a day. A three week course should be adequate.

If anybody wants to work on saving chickens (nobody in the US cares to), please let me know. The experiments are quite straightforward. I just don't have access to sick chicks (or people, for that matter).

Yours sincerely,
Dave Moskowitz MD
CEO
GenoMed, Inc.
www.genomed.com

Randy dude, as you know (but others don't), back when transgenic bird flu began killing humans (mid-late 1997), I got locked in a Western Oz loonybin for the "pathology" of suggesting most local officials were an inbred gaggle of nazi waste product from an animal's digestive tract expelled through the anus -- feces (one of the primary substances making H5N1 bird
flu so dangerous to all mammals).

Anyway, enough with this cheery transgenic pandemic
talk! Back to your comment, "And you thought the OZ police were Baddasses! We got Supari on your tail now." Now, Samuel L. Jackson's interpretative movie role of a "cool DTE cop", Shaft, hey that's totally badass! The smalltown tosser Aussie cops who fracked me over with false charges and a desire to have me in a loonybin... Well, they sure aint "badasses" in my book. They are cowardly, bullying poncey dumbasses who'll probably go crying to mommy and daddy (like a pack of 'girly' spoiltbrats with zero self-volition) once the H5 feces really hits the global fan.

Supari!?! She's apparently released the latest human Indo H5N1 viral samples -- God's given her the right advice and she's listened!?!