Military planners are fond of saying that no battle plan survives the first contact with the enemy. The same can be said for the military's pandemic flu plans, although they aren't telling us exactly what those plans are. Some good reporting by Associated Press's Lolita Baldor has uncovered some of it:
The rapid spread of swine flu from Mexico surprised Pentagon officials, who had been focused on a possible Asian-borne pandemic in a response plan that would give the military a last-resort role in helping to impose quarantines and border restrictions.Drafted and overhauled several times in recent years, the military's closely guarded plan for an influenza pandemic assumed that officials would have more time before the flu hit U.S. shores. The Associated Press obtained briefing documents about the military's pandemic contingency plan.
The H1N1 flu outbreak set U.S. military commanders scrambling to monitor and protect troops based near the 2,000-mile southern border and on ships nearby.
The virus spread quickly across the border into Southern California, infecting at least 27 sailors on a ship docked at San Diego, four Marines at Camp Pendleton and at least one Marine at Twentynine Palms. Several dozen Marines have been quarantined, and nearly two dozen other sailors had flu symptoms but have so far not been confirmed as having the H1N1 virus.
[snip]
While there are only a limited number of airports and seaports that could provide U.S. entry for the virus from overseas, the military was faced with an almost limitless number of cars, trucks and pedestrians traveling across the easily accessible, expansive border with Mexico.
In an interview with the AP, Kircher and several senior military officers from U.S. Northern Command said that since the swine flu has been far less lethal than anticipated, it has allowed the military to stop far short of the worst-case scenarios that the Pentagon prepared for in its long-range planning.
But in the event of a widespread pandemic, the Pentagon maintains standing plans to use the active-duty military as a last-resort force to help law enforcement manage quarantines, limit state-to-state travel and restrict access to government buildings. (Lolita Baldor, AP)
This is enough information to make even a skeptic about conspiracy and plans for martial law at least think twice. And for that reason it's colossal stupidity to keep the plan "under wraps." It's hard to think of anything about the plan that, if known, would make it more difficult to carry out -- except if it included elements that were clearly unconstitutional, illegal and generally objectionable. Which, alas, is quite likely.
A military plan has a lot of moving parts, and in the case of plans to prepare for a pandemic, many of those parts would be needed, if not essential. They certainly include using military resources for securing critical infrastructure (e.g., keeping power lines up during an icestorm when absenteeism hampered utilities), protecting and caring for their own personnel, assisting local agencies carry out duties, helping with mass casualties, provide shelter and many other kinds of domestic assistance at the request of Governors or other local officials. I would be deeply disappointed if the plan didn't envision such things and I'm sure it does.
On the other hand, I am just as sure that like many military plans it also includes things that are idiotic and counterproductive. Just because some General planned it doesn't make it either rational or beneficial. If that were the case, every battle plan would succeed, which of course is impossible, since the other side also has a battle plan. When the military is asked to plan they will plan in military terms. Military history is the tale of strategic and tactical blunders.
But to a man with a hammer the whole world looks like a nail. So we get plans to do things that perhapsmake sense to lay people, like generals, but don't make scientific sense. Things like quarantining regions or countries or communities by force with the military. Quarantine is the forced sequestration of people who are not sick but possibly exposed. It is fruitless for influenza, as experience shows (and is showing again). Use of force only invites a panic that encourages people to flee, spreading the disease faster and more widely. The ones most affected will be the politically powerless. The rich and the powerful, including politicians who order the quarantine and the families of the generals, will do just fine. No quarantine for them (except on paper).
Legislation that goes back 150 years makes it illegal for federal troops (not National Guard troops who are under the Governor's direction) to arrest people, search them or seize their property. Federal troops can only do this if the President declares an insurrection. Their role is limited to protecting the military itself, the country from attack from outside, and helping to keep the government to function, which might include assisting local law enforcement with transportation, resources and communication.
So is that what the plan envisions? They won't tell us. Why not?
The Defense Department and Northern Command have refused to publicly release the details of their operations plan for pandemic influenza. Labeled "for official use only," the plan lays out the active-duty military's six-phase response to an influenza outbreak.
In interviews, Pentagon officials repeatedly expressed concerns about alarming the public, stressing that the plan would only unfold in a crisis situation and under orders from the president.
If the military really wants to scare the crap out of everyone, just tell us they are planning to do things they can't tell us about because it might scare us. That's like pushing the button marked, "Imagination runs wild."
What a bunch of dummies. Doesn't give me much confidence in their foresight and therefore their ability to plan intelligently.
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Yes, I saw this article repeated all over the media yesterday and was not surprised by it for the reasons provovided by Revere. Of course they have plans and of course some of the plans call for use of federal troops for quarentine duty. President Bush said that he was considering this policy in an August 2005 press conference after reading John Barry's The Great Influenza during his just ended vacation.
While the US DHHS's Pandemic Influenza Plan released later in 2005 called for quarantines by the spring for 2006 when the US DHS released their plan quarantines we, by that time recognized as fruitless. Since the US DHS is the lead agency during a pandemic emergency, then one would suppose that its policy would prevail regarding the wisdom of implementing quarantines.
I agree that it is curious that the military would keep its plan secret. That is disturbing since after all these are not war plans and we the people are not the enemy. On the contrary, I think it would be reassuring to the people to know that its military does have plans to help protect the country and help its citizens during a pandemic emergency, so it does not make sense to keep these plans secret unless...?
The unless part probably deals with the use of federal troops for enforcement of martial law, riot control, and to man large detention centers. I suspect that the US military must have made plans for this contingency or they have not been doing their job, which is to cover all the bases.
If the videos on YouTube are to be believed, which is anyone's guess, the US military has trained in US towns in a law enforcement role and located across the US and often adjacent to railroad tracks, there are a number of fenced-in facilities operated by private security companies where one can also see US military personal and equipment on site as well. These fenced facilities are of interest only because the high chain link fences both around and within them are topped with barbed wire pointing in rather than out. This is how it is constructed for prison use and is really the only evidence that these facilities might be used as mass detention centers. You will need to view them yourself and decide what you think.
Sincere thanks Revere to introduce this matter.
You say (quote)
It's hard to think of anything about the plan that, if known, would make it more difficult to carry out -- except if it included elements that were clearly unconstitutional, illegal and generally objectionable. Which, alas, is quite likely. (end quote)
The 'Force Majeure' (cited in French both in U.S. and English Canada overrule by its own Nature Constitutions.
A lot of 'Force Majeure' references are enshrined in NorthComm unclassify documents and yes on paper it seems consequent of a responsable Civil Protection Institution.
Then you say
"But to a man with a hammer the whole world looks like a nail.", this is a blunt Truth and the civil perceptions of National Army in theaters near us is not 'Cool".
It certainly would be Great if NorthComm hires Peter Sandman and Miss Lanard, maybe your NetWork shall accelerate this, but honestly its a must.
Then
"Use of force only invites a panic that encourages people to flee, spreading the disease faster and more widely. The ones most affected will be the politically powerless."
Sorry Revere, but again your NetWork should Shout this Evidence all together loud and Clear via MSM.
If NorthComm Boots follow their Statements then you have a Public Health 'Teachable Moment', for the People that would ease stress.
"Imagination runs wild."
Shoulder at the Wheel so we get the Job done Together.
Thank You Revere
Snowy
I kinda of agree with your opinion, but playing devils advocate, I can also see the prudence in not divulging the plans.
If certain groups wanted to harm us in some (any) way (hard to imagine, I know), then leveraging any potential pandemonium against us, would seem like a logical move. So if said individuals or group know exactly what infrastructure the government will seek to protect to minimize chaos, or where, when, and how resources will be deployed, then they know where the soft spots are ahead of time.
Pandemic planning for dummies,indeed.
Plans or not - well trained and self sufficient force does more good. First help after Katrina where local churches and prepared people. Same for California earth quakes. Then the First responders came in.
They are good people but small in number. Yesterday a hospital in Queens NY opened a tent just for suspected swine flu.
With tornadoes, hurrincanes, black outs and job layoffs that will happen before the next pandemic I hope people are prepared.
Regards,
Kobie
"Prepared folks suffer far less than unprepared ones" - Kobie
The remark about the families of the generals isn't accurate, although there's really no reason you would have known that.
In the military today, there's a largely unofficial and largely unpaid support structure that provides the support for the families of personnel. The support network runs more or less parallel to the chain of command, with the families of senior people making sure that the families of the junior personnel are taken care of. The responsibility is entirely unofficial and unenforceable, but very, very real.
I don't like some of the people I've interacted with in the support network, but I can't imagine any of them bailing in a crisis. That's not to say that none of the generals would try, but there would be hell to pay if they did.
Mike: Thanks for the clarification. I didn't think Generals would bail, but I did assume that they would get their children to safety. Maybe not. You'd know better than I would.
One problem for the elite is that they are seldom able to take care of themselves, the require maids, cleaning ladies, nannies etc. It is not that they can't do these things themselves, it is just that they are so unused to doing them that they are at a loss when they are deprived of their servants. Since they use servants who mix in the general population the flu will hit their homes as well. If they want to be safe they need to sequester themselves and their families now or at least well before the fall re-run and mix their own drinks and change their own children's diapers.
If you think keeping "the plan" secret is only a military thing, try to get the details of the DHS or FEMA plans, or even your state's DHS or SEMA (as opposed to their Department of Health) plan. My experience is that only those with a "need to know" get to see the plans for the guys with guns. As a member of the pandemic planning committee for the agency designated to take the lead (Public Health), I didn't have a "need to know".
Two comments ...
First, you say, "Just because some General planned it doesn't make it either rational or beneficial." No general planned this, because no general plans anything any more. The most likely case is that a defense contractor planned it. Constitutionality and legality are not likely to have been considered much if at all. I think there is a high probability that there was little or no input from specialists who might actually know something about handling an epidemic.
Second, the plan was "classified " as "For Official Use Only." There has been an increasing tendency in the military-industrial complex to use this bogus "classification" to hide things that are not really properly classified (I use "classified" in a technical sense - classification properly deals only with material that can be classified as Secret or higher under conditions specified by law.) "FOUO" is used to keep things away from the public that could be embarrassing but which cannot legally be classified.
I find your characterization of our military and governmental leaders as "dummies" to be incorrect:
Generals are well educated, very loyal leaders who have taken a sworn oath to follow civilian orders to bring immense resources to bear on matters of National significance. Our governmental leaders, who direct the Generals, are also educated and are similarly sworn to uphold our Constitution. They are YOUR elected leaders. There is no conspiracy. Pandemic illness is fortunately rare, and thus the attempts to address it may be misdirected, and may even fail. These are not faults; they are further acts of intelligence and bravery to be respected.
rayj: When you see a book on Quantum Mechanics for Dummies do you assume the readers are really dumb? For the rest of it, military people are like everyone else, including doctors and professors. Some are stupid, some are venal, some are crazy, some are loyal, some are virtuous, some are all of the above, etc. They are just people, not the paragons you seem to think they are. And they do some pretty stupid things, as do their leaders. I do stupid things too, but I don't have bombs and a license to kill.
The military demands conformity, above all else. Else it cannot function. That's a sensible approach, if you are the military. That is its nature; therefore, it necessarily bleeds out such things as "spontaneity;" that, also, is its nature.
I spent time in the military. I was a Marine grunt, in the war in Vietnam, in 1965, when I was nineteen years old. I saw combat first hand. Many times. A number of people whom I knew very well died in that place. Very anonymously. They slipped away, along some trail, some place. There. They were ambushed along the Song Tuy Luan River, for example; or they were blown up along Purple Heart Trail. No one ever knew what was coming, in that unbelievable shit hole (no one); that is the nature of war. In war, you reside in "a place that knows no promises." Just like all of the people around you.
I have a feeling there's very little that could convince Revere that, as a general matter, military planners are neither stupid nor evil. They have bombs and a license to kill, after all.
He/she also seems not to have considered the possibility that, relative to pandemic issues and biological attacks, any planning is probably done by or in consultation with military MDs. More fun to think it's just a couple of mean old generals (white males, of course) planning the illegal takeover of our country and preparing a super secret luxury bunker for their families and the very wealthy.
Blenheim, I think you're missing the point. If the plans weren't being kept secret, nobody would have to speculate on what they might be and whose input has been included.
If I were in the military and was given the task of coming up with a comprehensive pandemic response plan, I would probably find a loosely similar, pre-existing plan from my library and modify it. This is faster and easier than starting from scratch. If this is indeed what has happened, the releasing the details of the plan could inadvertently reveal details of the plan used as a model. Such a template plan could legitimately need to remain classified.
off leash: I don't understand your reasoning. Why would using another plan as a template be a legitimate reason to keep something secret? (BTW, as another commenter pointed out at #9, this isn't classified; it is just not being divulged).
The National Pandemic Plan, all 396 pages of it, can be downloaded from the HHS Web site
URL:
http://www.hhs.gov/pandemicflu/plan/pdf/HHSPandemicInfluenzaPlan.pdf
I am a civilian scientist working for the Navy. Today's "Republicans" would (and do) call me unprintable names because of my "progressive" (I would call them sensible) views. I can't speak for the other branches of the military, but the Navy's Pandemic Influenza Policy (OPNAV Instruction 3500.41, 26 April 2009) is all about identifying responsibilities and planning needed for dealing with the logistical, operational, and infrastructure problems of a possible ~30-40 percent absenteeism. It explicitly states that the top priority is taking care of DoD military, civilians, contractors, and their families -- both here and overseas -- while trying as best as possible (given various levels of disaster) to remain operational.
This is fully consistent with what I've seen firsthand in 13+ years of being around Navy types: they're decent and they really do worry about taking care of their own (both civilian and military). Not a word about quarantines or foisting themselves or their policies upon us domestically in any way. I read all 29 pages of it, parts of it many times now, and I am left with the impression that a nontrivial number of people made a good faith effort to really figure out what kinds of preparations within the Navy would be needed before, during, and after each of the six (as the DoD defines them -- separate from both the WHO and the Feds) stages of a pandemic.
Regarding generals (and admirals): they don't write these things themselves or even get much of a chance to shove their own pet ideas into these kinds of policy Instructions. Rather, they articulate a goal (however broad), and there is a chain of...well, command...that, ideally, identifies knowledgeable people and organizations who can then put together a sensible and robust policy. On rare occasions this process fails spectacularly, but most of the time it by and large works pretty well.
Regarding the FOUO issue: the military's instinctual approach to everything is "need to know". It's in their DNA. I do not know specific reasons why the flu pandemic planning documents would be FOUO, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if not a lot of thought went into that decision; it was probably a default pigeon holing on somebody's part. FOUO is a particular pet peeve of mine; I generally hate it. In many specific cases I've witnessed over the years, I think FOUO is either silly, counterproductive, wasteful, needlessly paranoid, pointless, sensible (yes, there are times it is sensible), or some combination thereof, depending on the particular circumstance or issue. The military types almost always do not (maybe even can not) grok the civilian mind, and we civilians should at least try and remember that before throwing a fit and declaring them evil or conspiratorial. Yes, they overprotect information. Right or wrong, it's what they do *by default*. But in my experience it's rare that there are nasty reasons for the overprotection. It's hugely frustrating and annoying, but they truly do not understand our frustration and anger over this.
Anyway, given my natural and very well-developed cynicism, I was fully expecting from this document a useless exercise in banality, superficiality, and likely civil rights trampling. It certainly raised my eyebrows to find (a) not a hint of such and (b) evidence of some serious thought and sensible planning. Thus -- and it goes against my grain to say this -- in the Navy world, at least, the more cynical aspects of the picture you paint couldn't be further from what appears to be the truth.
mm: Just to be clear, my reference to dummies and foresight was about refusing to divulge the plans. If they can't see that refusing to tell people what is in plans and also suggesting that it contains quarantine, etc., they are inviting speculation (that wouldn't be out of line) about its contents. Your version of what is in it is what I would have expected and therefore if they won't tell me this, then maybe what I expected isn't the case at all. As for the Generals, etc., I think my statements were taken a bit too literally by some (not necessarily you). The point I and others have made is that quarantine falls most heavily on the politically powerless, not on the well connected and powerful. I know the Generals didn't write the plan (literally) but they also understand that not everything in a plan for the general public would necessarily apply to them (it doesn't now and it wouldn't then).
Anyway, thanks for your comments. They are helpful.