Final Election Projections

330 Obama: 208 McCain.

(I'm optimistic that Nebraska's second district will vote Obama this year - oh, and that Ron Paul will prove enough of a spoiler to McCain in MT that Obama will win. LONG shot on those to, though.)

The problem with Nate Silver's number at 538 is that it is the expected value (e.g. the average). That does not mean it is an attainable number (and, given the state distribution, it is not attainable in this case); it is just a statistical average.

In addition to the expected value, you want the most likely outcome. election-projection.net uses a method similar (but not the same as) Nate does. Their expected value is 346.9 (close to Nate), but their most likely outcome is 367.