I'm not sure why people are shocked by last night's results; it wasn't that surprising:
- As I laid out here, Iowa had a much higher percentage of 18-29 voters than did New Hampshire, probably because the calendar, combined with the time involved in caucusing, meant that students home on break would be able to attend between 6-10 pm on a work night.
- What is interesting in that NH had more late breaking voters than Iowa. In Iowa, the late breakers went for Edwards and Clinton, while in NH, they split between Clinton and Obama.
- The most surprising thing is that, looking at the exit polls for Iowa and NH, it really seems that Clinton and Edwards were competing for the same electorate. The storyline was that Edwards and Obama were duking it out for the "change" vote. Not so much. Sadly, we might not be so post-racist after all. If you prefer a less cynical speculation, voters might actually want candidates to talk about things other than 'hope', like healthcare.
- Another factor to consider: angry women and the Tweety effect which I raised weeks ago*.
*I don't mean to be piqueish, but I did notice this before most others did.
- Log in to post comments
More like this
After the New Hampshire primary, I wrote:
The most surprising thing is that, looking at the exit polls for Iowa and NH, it really seems that Clinton and Edwards were competing for the same electorate. The storyline was that Edwards and Obama were duking it out for the "change" vote. Not so much…
Was checking out the exit poll data. Two things that jumped out at me....
Here are the votes for Obama from non-blacks in the South Carolina primary by age:
18-29 - 52%
30-44 - 25%
45-59 - 23%
60+ - 15%
Here are the votes by income for Edwards:
Under $15,000 - 14%
$15,000-$30,000 - 15%
$30,000-$50…
Just to add some more to yesterday's numbers and links on the Iowa caucuses, which just shows that if you get all your news from the MSM, especially the TV, you are not just woefully uninformed, but criminally misinformed. Take your time this weekend to read up on these:
Sara Robinson: 2008: A…
As the dust settles in New Hampshire, people are starting to talk about the winners and losers, and what it all means in the grand scheme of the election. Some are looking for excuses reasons why Obama didn't actually pull off a win when every poll conducted in the known universe last week said he…