Al Franken

The word on the street is that Colleman recount watchers have shifted strategy in order to increase an apparent lead over Al Franken. It seems that many of the Coleman people are challenging perfectly good Al Franken ballots in order to make the miniscule Coleman lead appear to grow, possibly allowing Coleman to have Yet another Victory Press Conference. According to Joe Bodell: ...a view from inside the recount operation shows just how the Coleman operation is working: not just challenging questionable ballots, but challenging ballots that are clearly Franken votes for the sake of…
Another local blogger, Jeff Rosenberg, is following the recount and providing his own analysis. Here.
With 80.6 percent of the vote recounted, the known difference between Coleman and Franken has for the first time grown greater than the audited and adjusted original count differenct of 215. The difference is now, by my rekoning, a whopping 238. This, by Norm Coleman's standards, is a virtual landslide!!! But that number is fairly small in comparison to the 3594 votes that are currently contested by both camps, and the thousand or so potentially contested absentee ballots. It is still the case that anything could happen.
The numbers are now settling in for the Coleman-Franken Senate race recount for Minnesota. With 74.2% of the votes counted, it is now possible to make a reasonably good prediction of the outcome of the current recount, not counting challenged ballots or other changes. The following graph shows the change across time for each day of the recount in the number of votes for each of these two candidates. What you see here is a random scatter of points. The regression line has become meaningless. What this tells us is that the number of votes from the recount process will be about 45 less for…
FiveThirtyEight is a pretty good web site dealing with polls and other election realted number crunching. They predicted the outcome of the race for president almost as accurately as I did, so I figure they're pretty good. And now, FiveThirtyEight has a reasonably good analysis suggesting that Franken is going to win the recount. Here's the argument in a nutshell. Franken is going to win because of all the reasons we've been saying all along (see this and this). But in some precincts, the Republicans are challenging a LOT of votes that are likely to be called as Franken votes, so they are…
Here's the graph: The explanation for the graph is here. This is a little misleading. The number of votes counted yesterday and contributing to this right-most point is very small ... hardly any counting was going on during the day Saturday. The Monday data, added to this, will be more useful. (In fact, some of you may have noticed, that while this graph is fun, there are major violations going on here statistically ... which is why there is no R-squared or p value being given!) I've changed the Republican Party Line to be a third order polynomial for maximum absurdity. See this post for…
This is hyst-fucking-erical. OK, we've been recounting ballots pursuant to the implementation of actual Democracy in the Coleman-Franken race for U.S. Senate. So what do you think the standard JOKE among the Democrats ... working as volunteers to observe the count for Franken ... has been? This: "I challene this ballot because the voter filled in the bubble for Norm Coleman. Obviously, this voter is delusional." Ha ha ha. Well, even if it is not the funniest joke you've ever heard, it IS a joke. Right? Right? Well, no, not if you are a Republican. The Coleman challengers have…
... and there is strong evidence of shenanigans on the part of Coleman supporters (or someone). As I mentioned earlier, the idea is afoot that there will be more of a shift towards Al Franken in geographical regions that favor Franken than in Coleman-sympathetic regions, in the current US Senate recount for Minnesota. I disagree, and in fact, I'm going to suggest the opposite. There seem to be two reasons proposed as a basis for this assertion. One is this: The Democratic Party is the big tent party, with lots of immigrants from countries without bubbles, new voters, and people who…
As a very hectic week settles down a bit, I can give you a little more information and perspective on the Minnesota US Senate Race recount. There are a number of misconceptions circulating about this process that I can dispel, and I have a pair of predictions for you: Taking the same exact data, we have the Democratic Party Line and the republican Party Line, wherein "line" means trend line on a graph. [Update: See this new analysis suggesting that the Republicans cheated] Let's start with the prediction. Given all the available data, we can now estimate what is going to happen as a…
So, for the next two weeks or so, an army of volunteers, state workers, and lawyers are going to be counting and observing the counting, and contesting and arguing about, every single one of the nearly three million ballots cast last election day in Minnesota in the race for Senator. I had spent some time during the latter period of the election season working on the election, mainly for Ashwin Madia, but also for Al Franken and Barack Obama. The recount extends my own commitment, and that of thousands of others, to keep working on this. (Yes, I'm trying to make you feel a little bad if…
During the Franken - Coleman senatorial campaign in Minnesota, Republican Norm Coleman issues a number of very negative campaign ads filled with misrepresentations and lies about Al Franken. Meanwhile, Democrat Al Franken issued ads critical of Norm Coleman. There was a difference: Coleman's ads were lies, Franken's ads were accurate. Nonetheless, Coleman, known not only for is womanizing, graft-mongering, and other things I won't mention, but also known for a litigious streak, sued Franken over two claims made in campaign ads. One of these claims was determined by a judge to be a matter…
The Al Franken campaign seeks volunteers to help with the recount starting next week. There is a training session this Saturday and people are being asked to commit a day or more (but in units of whole days) to the effort some time over the subsequent weeks, on weekdays. (There are logistical reasons for this.) Let me know if you want to help. Email me your name and phone number and I'll pass it on to a person who will contact you.
The 'lead' held by Republican Senator Norm Colman over Democratic Party Candidate, Radio Talk Show Host, SNL Star, Satirist, Author and Cartologist Al Franken has dropped to 204 points. You may be wondering how this could happen. Well, up to today, and depending on which report you read, through the rest of the week, various precincts are double checking the numbers on their vote counts and reporting them to the Secretary of State. The original counts were quick and dirty ... generally pretty accurate and certainly good enough to declare a winner where the percentage difference is five or so…
Norm Coleman is afraid of YOUR vote. Especially if you filed an absentee ballot: Republican Sen. Norm Coleman filed an injunction to stop the opening and counting of 32 absentee ballots in Minneapolis, according to a copy of the court documents filed today provided to the Pioneer Press by Democrat Al Franken's campaign.... ...The Franken campaign officials said Saturday that Coleman officials are trying to "deprive Minnesota voters of their civil rights." Andy Barr, Franken's communications director, said in a statement: "Ever since the routine process of canvassing to ensure that every vote…
Both Norm Coleman (R, Incumbant) and Al Franken have set up legal oversight teams for the impending recount in the Minnesota Senatorial race. However, Coleman's lawyer is regisning from the team. Acorrding to the West Central Tribune Online, Coleman's campagin ... ... announced Wednesday evening that former U.S. Attorney Tom Heffelfinger, a Republican, would oversee the recount for Coleman. But Heffelfinger removed himself Thursday morning, saying he had to focus on guiding a city of St. Paul review of law enforcement practices during the Republican National Convention. "I have realized…
.... that is the latest number. The difference between Coleman and Franken in the Minnesota Senate vote count, according to the evening news, just reported.
There is some nasty stuff happening in Minnesota. I'm thinking the Franken-Coleman election was rigged, and we may be able to prove this over the next few weeks. Meanwhile, in Winona county: Rocks thrown through Democratic Headquarters window: Local authorities are saying that this was revenge rocks being thrown through Obama posters. Regarding the Franken/Coleman race: Yes, the number dropped from four hundred plus (Coleman over Franken) to three hundred plus (Coleman over Franken) when a "1" in the hundreds place was discovered. Was this a mistake or on purpose? A mistake? Of 400…
Earlier today, three voters of Somali origin at the Brian Coyle Center in Minneapolis told me -- and two told an election observer -- that a translator working there was instructing people to vote for Sen. Norm Coleman. Wow. Given that Coleman may win this race by around 500 to 700 votes, this is significant. Did Coleman steal this election? Are we going to let him get away with this? The story is here, and this is a related video:
And this is Franken's very mild rebuke in his latest campaign ad: Get Out the Vote!
Kapow! ZLOTT!!!! Pow! That is what is going on in the Franken vs. Coleman race with some interesting recent developments that congealed in a Public Radio debate, a new ad by Norm Coleman, and ... wait for it ... a new ad from Al Franken that should be out tomorrow some time. Some real shit is truly hitting a very energetic fan, and people are sitting up and taking notice. What is currently a very close election is likely, I predict, to not be close at all by the time Tuesday comes along. But I'm not saying which way it is going to break, because I have no idea. Details here. Here is the…