climate change
hrynyshyn | June 17, 2009.. climatologists are right when they say we should be worried about what we're doing to the global heat balance.
A commenter on my previous post asked
What aspects of the science do you feel are most convincing in demonstrating the link between fossil fuel emissions and rising global average temperatures?
To which I offered one glib and one sincere but pass-the-buck response. I want very much to get past the whole "what's the evidence for climate change" thing. But on reflection, it's important to remind those who are new to the debate, especially younger participants, just why we have as…
illconsidered | June 16, 2009Of all the myriad climate skeptic arguments out there, the argument that the current rise in CO2 is not human caused truly is one of the most ridiculous positions one could take.
(Please note, I am not saying it is ridiculous to consider, we should consider everything, but like wondering if the light in the fridge really turns off when you close the door, a quick check with your cell phone video camera really should put it to rest!)
It is of course one of the standard denials in the HTTTACS series.
I am closing comments on that thread and directing them here, as surprising as it is to me…
hrynyshyn | June 15, 2009The New York Times' Andy Revkin has decided that marine biologist turned filmmaker Randy Olson is the go-to guy for advice on how scientists should communicate with the public when it comes to the threat of climate change. On Dot Earth, he writes about SEED's recent survey of advice from some of the better known suspects, and then puts the same question to Olson. Though Olson's past efforts on the subject haven't attracted much attention ;;;; the comic documentary Sizzle evaporated quickly upon release ;;;; this time he has some thoughts that are worth reviewing:
... humans respond to human…
illconsidered | June 11, 2009I think I will start to close down comments on some of the guide articles as the comment threads get too long and meandering, and instead direct people from there to dedicated "open threads".
So consider this the first implementation of that idea for the article "CO2 Lags, not leads". Comments there are now closed.
The main reason I want to do this article first, aside from the recent explosion of unproductive comments, is because I would like to make a correction and a couple of clarifications based on what came out there. The majority of the comments fall squarely in the "completely…
hrynyshyn | June 10, 2009Inspired by a letter to New Scientist by Londoner Guy Robinson, herewith a not-so-abstract thought experiment based on the trillionth-ton climate change concept.
According to a pair of papers recently published in Nature, the Earth stands a good chance of warming more than 2 °C above pre-industrial levels if our cumulative atmospheric emissions of carbon since those days reaches a trillion tons. So far, we've emitted about 520 billion tons. leaving us with just 480 billion tons before we enter into dangerous global warming territory.
But some of our total emissions are tied to agricultural (…
hrynyshyn | June 8, 2009Assigning any group to one of just two categories is usually little more than an exercise in stereotyping. What do you do with someone like Francis Collins, for example? On the one hand, he's a brilliant genome sequencer, on the other he confuses (as Bob Park aptly writes) a "hormone rush" with "an encounter with God." But every now and then, plotting attitudes on an x-y grid and dividing the Bell curve into left and right halves can be a useful way of looking at a problem. NASA climatologist Gavin Schmidt essentially does this in an interview with Salon's Peter Dizikes, and in doing so helps…
hrynyshyn | June 4, 2009For your consideration: Two possible, if not probable, future scenarios for the human race should the business of fossil fuel combustion continue as usual for the next few decades. The first, an ABC-TV special that aired this Tuesday night, "Earth 2100." The second, a film by UK documentarian Frannie Armstrong, "The Age of Stupid." The former depicts a world that is increasing hostile to civilization as the century draws to a close, the latter an even less habitable planet, not just for humans, by 2055.
Are either visions realistic, or just more worse-case scenarios that grossly exaggerate…
hrynyshyn | June 2, 2009It's hard for me to ignore a headline like this: "Climate deal uncertainty clouds carbon market -- survey." According to a Reuters story, a poll of companies around the world with an interest in trading permits to emit greenhouse gases finds that "over half of respondents expect a major climate pact to be postponed until further meetings in 2010." The Greenhouse Gas Market Sentiment survey was released by the International Emissions Trading Association just before today's opening of the latest round of negotiations leading up to December's Copenhagen conference, at which we'll see if a…
hrynyshyn | May 29, 2009A coalition of 15 environmental organizations has released a joint statement explaining why they can't get behind the American Clean Energy and Security Act, a.k.a. Waxman-Markey. They complain that it:
sets targets for reducing pollution that are far weaker than science says is necessary to avoid catastrophic climate change. The targets are far less ambitious than what is achievable with already existing technology. They are further undermined by massive loopholes that could allow the most polluting industries to avoid real emission reductions until 2027.
All of which is true. There's a…
hrynyshyn | May 27, 2009Peter Behr at Scientific American has a wonderfully clear explanation of just how the cap and trade mechanism prescribed by the Waxman-Markey bill will work, should it make it through Congress. It's not rocket science, but my suspicion is that a lot of observers feel intimidated by the concept and don't make an effort to get their minds around it.
Which is a shame because it's largely a matter of simple math, and Behr turns to Harvard University economist Robert Stavins for help. Here are the essential facts:
In 2016, the U.S. economy would produce an estimated 7.3 billion tons of CO2, based…
hrynyshyn | May 26, 2009There's an interesting but frustrating little essay up at Grist, which has become the go-to publication to follow the fate of the Waxman-Markey bill as it wends its way through Congress. Frequent columnist Gar Lipow argues that
Mainstream environmentalists who take the position that the Waxman-Markey cap-and-trade bill "could be worse" help ensure that it will be.
I take it he thinks those who want to see the United States embrace serious climate change mitigation strategies should be working hard to strengthen the bill. Sure.
Proclaiming "It could be worse" makes the bill in its current…
edyong | May 25, 2009
In 2005, corals in the large reef off the coast of Florida were saved by four hurricanes. Tropical storms seem to be unlikely heroes for any living thing. Indeed, coral reefs directly in the way of a hurricane, or even up to 90km from its centre, suffer serious physical damage. But Derek Manzello from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administation has found that corals just outside the storm's path reap an unexpected benefit.
Hurricanes can significantly cool large stretches of ocean as they pass overhead, by drawing up cooler water from the sea floor. And this cooling effect, sometimes…
hrynyshyn | May 21, 2009Al Gore wants Waxman-Markey to pass. Business (Shell, Duke, Alcoa, etc) likes Waxman-Markey. Joe Romm likes Waxman Markey. Everybody wants this last, best hope to do something about climate change to survive. Everybody, but a few stubborn extremists, like Greenpeace. I say that's a good thing.
I can understand why some climate change campaigners would be annoyed with Greenpeace for not falling into line. Waxman-Markey may be flawed, but it's simply too late in the game to try another approach (a flat carbon tax, say) and political realities make it clear that it's almost certainly the best we…
hrynyshyn | May 16, 2009With around 1,000 pages to digest, only the most committed of climate policy wonks can give you an an honest assessment of the just-released draft of H.R. 2454, the Waxman-Markey bill that may or may not get the U.S. on the road to climate repair. Reaction so far is, predictably enough, mixed.
Greenpeace hates its, claiming that it would, at best, cut greenhouse gas emissions by between 4 and 7% below 1990 levels by 2020. Congress should, therefore, go back to the drawing boards.
Al Gore and company have chosen to back the bill -- and they want everyone associated with his Climate Project…
hrynyshyn | May 13, 2009Canadians had a chance to introduce a national carbon tax last year during a federal election, but failed to elect the party that was pushing it. Yesterday's provincial election in British Columbia produced the opposite result: the governing party, which had introduced a carbon tax last year, survived.
Interesting.
No one considered the 2008 national campaign a referendum on the merits of a carbon tax, and there were certainly other issues at play in the B.C. vote. But the tax attracted an enormous amount of attention, largely because the opposition party, the New Democrats, have…
ddobbs | May 6, 2009
Science Progress looks at the discouraging feedback loop between climate change and Western wildfires:
New research investigating the impact of climate change on western wildfires presents a bleak picture. CAP Senior Fellow Tom Kenworthy covers the latest science in an American Progress column this week, explaining the problematic feedback cycle: higher temperatures from global warming increase the risks of wildfires, and increased fires release more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere:
A new paper in the April 24 issue of the journal Science, for example, concludes that scientists have…
hrynyshyn | May 6, 2009Here's how I would have liked to have introduced this post:
The good news is that, other than for an increasingly marginalized minority, the focus of attention on climate policy has shifted from the reality of global warming to the economic tools needed to address the problem.
Sadly, climate change denialism remains relatively robust and widespread, with more half of all Americans and popular columnists of George F. Will's stature still unwilling to accept the science. I have no choice but to acknowledge the task of getting everyone on board will require more time and energy, even while we…
hrynyshyn | April 30, 2009This week's Nature includes a trio of climate features, book reviews, an essay, a pair of new papers, and and editorial highlighting how little wiggle room we have left if we want to avoid warming the planet 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. It's science journalism at its best. Sadly, it's up to us bloggers to lift as much as we can without incurring the wrath of the journal's intellectual property lawyer to spread the word. So here goes.
The most interesting of the features, in my opinion, covers the spreading meme that 450 parts per million isn't a low enough concentration of atmospheric…
hrynyshyn | April 29, 2009In the past week both Canada and the UK have announced a phase-out of conventional coal-fired power plants. Could this be the beginning of the end? Are we seeing the first stages of a global moratorium? Too soon, to tell of course. But it's encouraging.
First, came the British news:
Any new coal-fired power stations built in Britain will have to be fitted with cutting-edge technology to capture their carbon emissions, the Government announced yesterday in a revolution in energy policy.
...
As the technology is in its infancy and still unproven, new generating stations would have to be built…
hrynyshyn | April 27, 2009CBS' 60 Minutes didn't break any news with its report on the dilemma posed by coal-fired power plants. It was probably inevitable that they would look into the fascinating contradictions posed by Duke Energy CEO Jim Rogers. For a man who make a lot of money emitting greenhouse gases into the planet's biosphere, he sure seems to grok the climate crisis. And he seems to be sincere about transforming his business into a carbon-neutral supplier of electriticy.
When it comes to walking the walk, though ...
"Controlling carbon emissions in the near future is inevitable in your view. This is going…