statistics
razib | July 25, 2009Tyler Cowen linked to a Time article on the phenomenon of Southern Americans being relatively overweight vis-a-vis Americans from other regions of the country. Several reasons are offered, from the lower per capita income of Southern states, to the fact that Southern food tends to be fried and less healthful. But the article doesn't mention one very salient fact: black Americans are heavier than white Americans, and are disproportionately concentrated in Southern states. What is a regional disparity could be accounted for by underlying differences in the distribution of races.
State Health…
revere | July 7, 2009I'm not qualified to say if science and health reporting has gotten worse in recent years. Maybe I'm just paying more attention to how bad it often is now. My impression is that some reporters today are as good or better than we've ever had but there are fewer of them on the beat. This is compensated for by the fact that the ones still in there writing superb pieces can now be read and appreciated by many more of us, thanks to the very medium, the internet, that is killing their business model and their livelihoods. Exceptional science journalists aside, news outlets are continuing to do…
revere | July 4, 2009The number of people who die from seasonal flu every year varies greatly from year to year. No one really knows what it is. The most frequently (mis)quoted figure is 36,000 deaths directly or indirectly, although this figure is a long term seasonal average of excess mortality correlated with flu season. We discussed this in more detail in an earlier post and for the purposes of this one, only the rough order of magnitude is pertinent. Let's just say it's in the tens of thousands -- roughly. Let's also agree on the several hundred thousand hospitalizations from flu or flu related illness -- on…
grrlscientist | July 2, 2009tags: Arthur Benjamin, Mathematics, calculus, statistics, education, , TEDTalks, streaming video
Someone always asks the math teacher, "Am I going to use calculus in real life?" And for most of us, says Arthur Benjamin, the answer is no. He offers a bold proposal on how to make math education relevant in the digital age. [2:59]
TEDTalks is a daily video podcast of the best talks and performances from the TED Conference, where the world's leading thinkers and doers give the talk of their lives in 18 minutes. Featured speakers have included Al Gore on climate change, Philippe Starck on…
ddobbs | June 29, 2009Paul Krugman tunes out the noise:
Temperature is a noisy time series, so if you pick and choose your dates over a short time span you can usually make whatever case you want. That's why you need to look at longer trends and do some statistical analysis. But I thought that it would be a good thing to look at the data myself.
So here's the average annual global temperature since 1880, shown as .01 degrees C deviation from the 1951-80 average.
What this tells me is that annual temperature is indeed noisy: there have been many large fluctuations, indeed much larger than the up-and-down in the…
mikethemadbiologist | June 25, 2009Before I dive in, I really do want good news. But misinterpreting bad economic news as good news doesn't help. You might have heard that, last week, jobless claims dropped (i.e., the number of workers filing for unemployment benefits decreased). This is a good thing, right?
Not so fast. Barry Ritholtz:
Those of you (who can still afford the luxury of) a trusty Bloomberg will note the 'exhaustion rate' for jobless benefits - EXHTRATE - reveals that people are not leaving the pool of continuing unemployment claims because they are getting new jobs; Rather, they are leaving because they have…
revere | June 23, 2009CDC has another snapshot of what the flu surveillance system is seeing up through week 23 (ending June 13). It shows flu still circulating in many communities at a time when most seasonal flu is normally at a very low level. Indeed of the 2765 specimens tested in CDC's network of 150 laboratories, virtually all of the roughly 40% were influenza A (seasonal influenza B has all but disappeared; the others were not influenza). Not all the flu A viruses were or could be subtyped, but of those that were or could be, 98% were novel H1N1. IN other words, there's lots of flu around, but essentially…
revere | June 19, 2009Swine flu infection of health care workers (or as CDC refers to them, health care personnel or HCP) was of interest early in the pre-pandemic phase for at last two reasons. One was the obvious goal of estimating the risk to front line workers and devising best practices for their protection. Another was the belief, reinforced by the SARS outbreak in 2003, that spread to HCP was an early warning that the virus was easily transmissible from person to person. SARS is a disease where patients are most infectious in the later stages when they are extremely ill, and HCP were among the hardest hit…
mikethemadbiologist | June 18, 2009A few weeks ago, there was a minor ruckus about a post that claimed that the shutdown of Chrysler dealerships was biased to protect dealers who supported Clinton's campaign. At the time, I ignored it, figuring it was just another case of Conservative Clinton Derangement Syndrome (BILL CLINTON'S PENIS!!! BILLARY IS A SHE DEVIL!! AAAIIIEEE!!!). But I finally got around to reading it, and guess what?
It's stupid, and based on a sloppy understanding of probability theory.
The authors of the post performed multiple linear regressions to determine if dealerships owned by campaign supporters of…
revere | June 5, 2009In New York City, an illness termed "mild" for many has killed 7 and put 300 in the hospital. A preliminary analysis of about half of those hospitalized, most (82%) were said to have some underlying medical condition. That's common with flu, but it's also a reminder that one of five were otherwise healthy, and unusually for flu, most of them relatively young (mostly under 65). Similarly, the deaths also had underlying medical conditions but were relatively young (median age 43). The two most recent deaths were in the mid 40s.
So not being old is one risk factor. What does "underlying medical…
razib | May 16, 2009Does secularization of the USA spell social meltdown?:
That's certainly what two European sociologists, Loek Halman and Thorleif Pettersson, have concluded. Using data from the European Values Survey, they found that there was no relationship between how religious a country was (on average) and a rich it was in social capital.
For example, the Czech Republic and Slovakia have similar levels of social capital, although Slovakia is far more religious than the Czech Republic. Some of the countries with the most social capital, Sweden and Denmark, were also the least religious.
In fact, in…
revere | May 12, 2009Trying to figure out where the incipient swine flu pandemic is heading and how fast it is heading there is shooting at a moving target, and this one is moving pretty fast. The best we can do at this point is use whatever information we have to make some educated guesses about different scenarios along with how likely various scenarios are. We used to do this on the back of an envelope, Now we use computer programs. I'm not sure we are doing much better (or much worse), but we can make use of more information and the answer looks prettier when displayed.
Expedited publication of such an…
razib | May 11, 2009You might have already see this chart relating obesity to time spent eating in The New York Times:
The commentary accompanying the chart goes like so:
On Monday, in posting some of the data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's Society at a Glance report, I noted that the French spent the most time per day eating, but had one of the lowest obesity rates among developed nations.
Coincidence? Maybe, maybe not.
Jim Manzi dug deeper into the data and found something very interesting:
I recreated the original analysis (minus the inclusion of the OECD average as a data…
revere | May 8, 2009Late yesterday The New England Journal of Medicine published a number of papers on the recent swine flu outbreak. The first paper, "Emergence of a Novel Swine-Origin Influenza A (H1N1) Virus in Humans" by large federal-state team of epidemiologists describes 642 confirmed cases in 41 states as of May 5, 2009, two days before publication. What I find remarkable is the speed the problem was recognized -- literally days. Identification of the virus was first made in the CDC laboratory on April 15, just 3 weeks ago. Now we are already reading scientific papers providing a wealth of detail.
Among…
razib | May 4, 2009Via Andrew Sullivan, One nation, seven sins: Geographers measure propensity for evil in states, counties. Here's the methodology:
Greed was calculated by comparing average incomes with the total number of inhabitants living beneath the poverty line. On this map, done in yellow, Clark County is bile (see map on Page 2).
Envy was calculated using the total number of thefts -- robbery, burglary, larceny and stolen cars. Rendered in green, of course, Clark County is emerald.
Wrath was calculated by comparing the total number of violent crimes -- murder, assault and rape -- reported to the FBI per…
revere | May 4, 2009There have been questions in the comments about where the CDC estimate of 36,000 to 40,000 influenza related deaths a year comes from. It's a figure I've used a number of times here to say generally that regular old seasonal influenza may be a mild disease for some but not for many others. Even if you don't die of flu, it can be a miserable illness and lay you low for several weeks of acute illness and months of fatigue and malaise. Now the 36,000 deaths number is taking on a life of its own, so it's time to explain exactly what it is and what it isn't. There are more things it isn't that it…
revere | April 15, 2009The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) calls it a "reality check," meaning, in their terms, a check against the mistaken idea that there is more foodborne illness these days. That's one way to look at it. Another is a look that is reality based. The reality is that there is a tremendous health burden from tainted food that is unaddressed, at least going by the same CDC Morbidity and Mortality (MMWR) report the WSJ was citing. MMWR was reporting on 2008 data from FoodNet on the incidence of infection from enteric pathogens commonly transmitted via food:
Despite numerous activities aimed at preventing…
edyong | April 3, 2009
Say the word 'statistician' and most people might think of an intelligent but reclusive person, probably working in a darkened room and almost certainly wearing glasses. But a new study shows that a monkey in front of a monitor can make a reasonably good statistician too.
Tianming Yang and Michael Shadlen from the University of Washington found that rhesus macaques can perform simple statistical calculations, and even watched their neurons doing it. Psychologists often train animals to learn simple tasks, where the right choice earns them a reward and the wrong one leaves them empty-handed…
mikethemadbiologist | April 1, 2009By way of Open Left, I found an interesting poll from Rasmussen, although the results scare me. They asked people three questions:
-- Generally speaking, when it comes to important national issues, whose judgment do you trust more - the American people or America's political leaders?
-- Some people believe that the federal government has become a special interest group that looks out primarily for its own interests. Has the federal government become a special interest group?
-- Do government and big business often work together in ways that hurt consumers and investors?
To create a scale,…
revere | March 23, 2009One of the nastiest things about the years after the Republicans took control of the Congress in 1994 and Bush the White House in 2001 was the increase in inequality in the US. The rich not only got richer and the poor, poorer, but rich got more comfortable and led better lives. The idea that they got rich because all they did was work is nonsense. They had plenty of time to spend their money and relax. Moreover the prosperity in the economy didn't accrue to everyone. It was the folks at the top that benefitted. We all know that the rising tide only lifted the yachts, but we sometimes forget…