Tim Lambert
tlambert
Posts by this author
Sam A. Kersh writes:
No, it up to you to show that an 88% reduction in rapes, 35%
reduction in commercial robbery and an 84% reduction in
residential burglaries is insignificant. Proof, not an inane
assertion by Lambert as a citation.
Sam, you seem to lack the most basic understanding of the way…
Peter H. Proctor writes:
If memory serves,
roughly half of all murders in the US are committed by blacks ( usually against
other blacks ), who represent about 14% of the US population.
If memory serves, if you discount this one population, the murder
rate in the US is below some European…
In Point Blank Gary Kleck writes:
The aggressor's possession of a handgun in a violent incident
apparently exerts a very slight net positive effect on the
likelihood of the victim's death. The linear probability
interpretation of the OLS coefficient implies that the presence of a
handgun increases…
Georgie Stanford writes:
The thesis is the following:
(1) Worldwide suicide rates are essentially the same regardless
of political factors such as availability of firearms
when matched for age and sex. Worldwide these are about
1.5% in all whole populations except for 2).
Really?
From the UN…
[Originally posted to firearmsreg Aug 19 1996]
Daniel Polsby writes:
McDowall very freely interprets his five-county study as suggestive
of causation. I tend to share the view that one should be slow to
change public policy on the basis of a single study, though one might
say of Lott-Mustard that…
[Originally posted to firearmsreg Aug 16 1996]
Daniel Polsby writes:
Mr. Lambert, and for that matter most others on this list, assume
that firearms are used defensively when they are brandished. All of
the endless back and forth about survey research techniques of
establishing how often this sort…
[Originally posted to firearmreg on Aug 15 1996]
Daniel Polsby writes:
Lott's results are highly plausible and internally consistent.
Highly plausible? Lets look at Dade county:
Lott reckons that the carry law caused a reduction of 8% in murders,
5% in rapes, 7% in aggravated assaults and 2% in…
Dr. Paul H. Blackman writes:
Yes, I'm sure [Kleck] would dispute Annest, because he would assume injuries
not treated in emergency rooms, and he'd probably stick with an
estimate starting around 150,000 -- unless I've misunderstood
non-peer-reviewed conversations.
So how does he reconcile this…
Dr. Paul H. Blackman writes:
The Annest et al. numbers are based on seeking medical treatment in
emergency rooms. And the figure for gunshot wounds is roughly 100,000
(which Phil Cook upped to 150,000 for the June JAMA by counting all
gun-related wounds including pistol whippings and air/BB/etc.…
Charles Scripter writes:
BTW, I notice that your web page still seems to purport that your
analysis was correct, even though your friends over in sci.stat.edu
pointed out that it was not correct;
That's an interesting interpretation of the discussion.
Perhaps you'd like to correct this "oversight…
Mark Gibson writes:
And Waller and Okihiro (1978, p. 31) reported
that 44% of burglarized Toronto residences were occupied during the
burglaries, with 21% of the burglaries resulting in confrontations between
victim and offender.
Waller and Okihiro did not have enough money to conduct a full…
Jim Zoes was kind enough to send me the data on English homicide rates
that he obtained from the Home Office. I've typed it in and included
it at the end of this message.
The numbers are certainly higher than those recorded in the WHO
Statistical Yearbook. I'll try to find out why, but for now I…
James B. Clark writes:
Here's your table. You didn't include the data from 1967-1972, so I
have no idea what it looks like. If you pick 1975, 1976, 1977, or
1978 I would bet that a decline in the homicide rates would be
detected by the methods in the Loftin study.
Probably. All this means…
Alternatively, a respondent making up a DGU, or describing a friend's
DGU as if it happened to someone in the respondent's household will
tend to make him or herself the defensive gun user.
Joel Friedman writes:
While I do not disagree, your estimate of 70% / 15% is just that an
estimate. It is…
Yes, the measure of shooting DGUs is inaccurate because of the small
number (16) of sample cases. A 95% confidence interval is 100,000
to 300,000 criminals are shot by armed citizens each year.
However, even allowing for the inaccuracy, the number does not seem
possible.
Eugene Volokh writes:
(2…
Clayton Cramer wrote:
"The Offences Against The Person Act of 1861 only allows use of deadly
force against an attacker similarly armed.
Otherwise a firearm can only be used
with the intent of frightening an attacker -- even if the warning
shot accidentally hits the attacker.
For practical purposes…
Pim Vanmeurs wrote:
I think you'll find the Netherlands does a pretty good homicide rate.
Indeed 1.2/100,000 total and 0.3/100,000 firearms related
compared to
US 7.6/100,000 total and 4.5/100,000 firearms related
Netherlands 1.9% gun ownership
USA 48% gun ownership rates
source: Martin…
The authors of the bibliography are quite correct when they state that a
case-control study could measure a net protective effect of firearms.
EdgarSuter writes:
"could" if death were the only legitimate measurement of the protective
benefits of guns.
Wrong. "could" if protection from death is a…
Edgar Suter writes:
In Kellermann's most recent study of homicide (Kellermann et al. "Gun
Ownership as a Risk Factor for Homicide in the Home." NEJM Oct 7, 1993;
329(15):1084-1091.) notes "Two hundred nine victims (49.8 percent) died from
gunshot wounds." Prof. Schaffer offers a robust [and…
The study controlled for literally dozens of other factors, including
criminality and illicit drugs. Furthermore the extra homicide risk
associated with firearm ownership was not from shootouts between drug
dealers or gangs, but domestic homicides.
Dr. Paul Blackman writes:
No. The study measured…
Dr. Paul H. Blackman writes:
But let's get back to the estimates of gun ownership by the cases and
the controls.
OK. Unlike Dr Suter's straw man argument this is a real threat to the
study. If gun ownership of the cases is under-reported more than gun
ownership of the controls is under-reported…
A limitation on the earlier (43-1) study is not
necessarily a limitation on the later case-control study. The authors
of the bibliography are quite correct when they state that a
case-control study could measure a net protective effect of firearms.
Dr. Paul H. Blackman writes:
The earlier study…
Daniel D. Polsby writes:
Unless I am seriously mistaken, one would find that crack cocaine
dealers and other persistent criminals are disproportionately
likely to possess firearms and to be murdered by others using
firearms. To place firearms at the heart of this story is at
best tendentious.
The…
Edgar Suter writes:
Dr. Kellermann's subsequent research "finding" that a gun in the home
increases risk used a method that cannot distinguish between "cause" and
"effect." Kellermann's illogical conclusion would be like finding more
insulin in the homes of diabetics and so concluding that insulin…
Lawrence Kennon writes:
The following documents exactly the kind of "junk science" being
foisted off on the public by the medical profession, and in
particular the CDC and the NEJM.
It does nothing of sort.
There are dozens of falsehoods, and dozens of claims that are
extremely dubious. It would…
Steve D. Fischer writes:
more threatening than a govt official sitting across a desk from you?
(1) not sitting across a desk
Irrelevant. The key is that they can look you in the eye and
read your body language.
Yet one more time: The NCVS used to be face to face but now most
interviews are…
Steve D. Fischer writes:
I have no problem accepting the idea that respondents lie about
reporting incidents to the police. From my own experience, I know
that people tend to disbelieve a report of a DGU if you say you did
not report it. The tendency to lie on this question is high. Because
one…
kebarnes writes:
Are Kleck's numbers concerning the self-reporting of robbery
and burglary incidences from this survey out of line with
the comparable NCVS results, for instance? Rs to Kleck's
survey reported that 5.5% (274/4977 Rs) had been a burglary
victim within the past year, and 2.5% (124/…
Steve D. Fischer writes:
Now, you've got 100 lines to convince me WHY I should risk
getting myself into trouble with the law, when all I wanted to do
was report a crime that happened to me.
The trouble is that Kleck would have you believe that this accounts
for the discrepancy between his survey,…
Steve D. Fischer writes:
There are two kinds of lies to worry about. The first is making
up defensive gun usages (DGUs) which never occurred, or which did not
occur within the 1 year time period. The second is concealing DGUs that
did occur because you feared that your DGU might have been of…