Bradley Effect, Go Away

Duke's behavioral economist Dan Ariely, author of "Predictably Irrational" and founder of MIT's Center for Advanced Hindsight, was in DC for a talk today. He is a damn entertaining speaker. For example, his advice on wingmen/women: "If you ever go bar-hopping, who do you want to take with you? A slightly uglier version of yourself." If his book is as good as his talk, it's well worth reading.

But what everyone really wants to know is how our irrationality will impact tomorrow's election, and that's where the Q&A went. Unfortunately, Ariely suggested that despite recent reports of its demise, the Bradley/Wilder effect may rear its Putinesque head.

Many recent news articles, and the well-timed Dan Hopkins paper (find it here), question whether the effect still exists. But while Ariely acknowledged that any impact may well be too small to make a difference in the election, he also warned that the impact of political correctness (in this case, discomfort with explicitly discussing race) should not be underestimated. Sigh. . . I guess we'll see; this will probably be the most overanalyzed election in history.