Football

In light of my recent post on the difficulty of changing our decision-making habits - even when we're aware that our habits are biased and flawed - I thought it might be interesting to look at two examples from professional football. Why sports? Given the intense competitive pressure in the NFL - there's a thin line between victory and ignominy - you'd expect head coaches to have corrected many of their decision-making mistakes, especially once those mistakes have been empirically demonstrated. But you'd be wrong.

Consider some research done by David Romer, an economist at UC Berkeley, who published a 2001 paper entitled "Do Firms Maximize? Evidence From Professional Football". The question Romer was trying to answer is familiar to every NFL fan: what to do on 4th down? Is it better to bring on the kicking team for a punt or field-goal attempt? Under what conditions should coaches risk going for it?

To answer this immortal mystery, Romer analyzed every fourth down during the first quarter in every NFL game between 1998 and 2000. (He had help from a computer program.) The first thing Romer did was figure out the fluctuating value of a first down at each point on the football field. After all, a first down was more valuable for a team if it occurred on an opponents two yard line than on their own twenty yard line.

Then Romer calculated the statistical likelihood of going for it on fourth down under various circumstances and actually getting a first down. He also calculated the probability of kicking a successful field goal from various spots on the field. So let's say you are NFL coach, and you have a fourth and three on your opponent's 30 yard line. Romer could tell you that 1) you have a 60 percent chance of getting a first down, and that teams with 1st downs inside the thirty yard line score a touchdown 40 percent of the time, for an expected point value of 1.7 and 2) that field goal attempts from the 32 yard line failed almost 65 percent of the time, which meant that going for a field goal only had an expected point value of 1.05. In other words, it's almost twice as effective to go for it than to attempt a field goal.

So what do most coaches do? Well, NFL coaches consistently make the wrong decision. According to Romer's analysis, teams would have been better off going for it on fourth down during the 1st quarter on 1100 different drives. Instead, coaches decided to kick the ball 992 times. This meant that NFL coaches made the wrong decision over 90 percent of the time. Romer summarized his counterintuitive results: "This analysis implies that teams should be quite aggressive. A team facing fourth and goal is better off on average trying for a touchdown as long as it is within 5 yards of the endzone. At midfield, being within 5 yards of a first down makes going for it on average desirable. Even on its own 10 yard line - 90 yards from a score - a team within three yards of a first down is better off on average going for it." Romer conservatively estimates that a more aggressive approach on fourth downs would make a team 5 percent more likely to win the game. This is a significant advantage: a coach willing to endure the risks would win one more game in three seasons out of every four.

But if kicking a field goal or punting on fourth down is such a bad idea, then why do coaches always do it? To explain the consistently bad decisions of NFL coaches, Romer offered two different answers. The first is risk aversion. If coaches followed Romer's strategy, they would fail about half the time they were within ten yards of the endzone. This means that instead of kicking an easy field goal and settling for three points, they would come away empty handed. Although that's a winning strategy in the long-run, it's awfully hard to stomach. (As Daniel Kahneman notes, "Worst case scenarios overwhelm our probabilistic assessment, as the mere prospect of the worst case has so much more emotional oomph behind it.") After a long drive down the field, fans expect some points. A coach that routinely disappointed the crowd would quickly get fired.

The second reason coaches stink at making decisions on fourth down is that they stink at statistics. As Romer politely writes, "Many skills are more important to running a successful football team than a command of mathematical and statistical tools...It may be that individuals involved want to make the decisions to maximize their teams' chance of winning, but that they rely on experience and intuition rather than formal analysis."

So how have coaches reacted to this data? In 2001, before Romer published his findings, the average team went for it on fourth down 15.1 times per season. During the 2005 season, the average NFL team went for it on fourth down 14.5 times. Learning about our mistaken decisions led to even worse decisions.

More like this

Why does this not surprise me? To quote you, "Knowledge has diminishing returns, right up until it has negative returns".

Great article. Passed it along to my football loving buddies.

Romer is only correct if his study is correct. His study can only be correct if the data used is relevant. Using 4th down data from the current NFL to predict behavior in a future NFL can only work if the two NFLs will be the same. However, I doubt 4th down data from an NFL where it is rare and only done when desperate (at least when more than 1 yd is needed), many times against a defense more interested in preventing a touchdown than a first down, will translate to a time when defenses are routinely asked to defend 4th down all over the field all the time.

I don't know how Romer could have accounted for this bias in the data. How many 4th and 8's does a team try a decade? How many times is it at the end of games against a prevent defense?

Garbage in = garbage out.

His study probably is better when it comes to near the opponent's goal or around the 35 yard line.

A point similar to Patrick: If you assume a basic level of competence in NFL coaches, then they would only attempt a 4th down conversion in situations their experience tells them is likely. Thus because you already have the coaches avoiding bad 4th down conversions, the 4th down conversions attempted would in fact have a higher degree of success, not because it's a good strategy but because coaches only attempt them when their experience tells them they have a better-than-50/50 chance of succeeding. You'd need to control for that by having a coach randomly go for conversions or field goals and then compare the results.

Another point that probably skews the results-

The study doesn't appear to account for the somewhat intangible detriment to a team when it fails to convert a 4th down play. A defense getting a stop on 4th down is one of the largest momentum swings in a football game. It energizes the team that made the stop and it depresses the team unable to convert a 4th down. It would be difficult to quantify this effect, but a start might be to analyze what the opposing team's offense does after their defense gets a stop on 4th down. If the offense scores a touchdown 40% of the time, you could subtract that from the expected point value. Momentum is key in a football game. Tough to define but essential to victory.

very good point Patrick

One thing coaches have to deal with is the second guessing of owners, sports writers, and fans. (Try selling these ideas to Al Davis or Jerry Jones for example.) A failure when going for it that leads to extreme criticism can be worse than the hoped for and temporary success. And even that occasional success can be criticized as a matter of pure luck that overcame the coach's otherwise bad judgement. Reputation can be as important to winning as an extra player on the field.
And if a coach thinks he can win by the usual methods, he will not chance the backlash that can come from doing the unusual. Playing the untraditional odds can get you lasting blame for the inevitable losses as opposed to some temporary credit for what may occasionally be a winning strategy. The fans and their expectations may have as much an effect on the odds as that particular strategy.

Travis wrote

A defense getting a stop on 4th down is one of the largest momentum swings in a football game.

Only because going for it on 4th down is perceived as a desperation tactic. When it's routinely expected it's a different morale game.

Patrick wrote

I don't know how Romer could have accounted for this bias in the data. How many 4th and 8's does a team try a decade? How many times is it at the end of games against a prevent defense?

That's the best question I see here. Note that it's at least partly answered by the Sports Illustrated story linked in Kyle's first comment. The opponents know what's coming because the Pulaski Academy team does it consistently, yet their record is good:

The Bruins have won 100 games this decade, including the Arkansas 5A championship last year. In the waning minutes of the 2008 title game, as the Bruins nursed a 35--32 lead, they still went for it four timesâeach successfullyâon their final drive before running out the clock.

Clearly that's not dispositive, but it is suggestive.

Jonathan wrote

If you assume a basic level of competence in NFL coaches, then they would only attempt a 4th down conversion in situations their experience tells them is likely.

Except that humans are lousy at integrating over experience to derive probabilities.

I love this kind of stuff, but it doesn't follow that NFL coaches are bad at or ignorant of statistics. Unless the entire team are sufficiently rational and cold to ignore the emotional cost of failure to score, the effect on arousal (upside down U curves, etc, etc) is likely to more than counterbalance the 5% benefit of going for it more often. I know the NCAA has some good scholar athletes, but somehow I can't imagine this working all that well.

I think the decisions made are rational, even if not optimal. The reason being coaches are fired, even winning coaches, if they break from the mold and suffer any kind of set-back the fan pressure to fire the coach can be over-whelming.

Just to clarify... whilst I think Romer has the value function used by coaches slightly wrong and hasn't taken into account a couple of (potentially unobservable) effects and there is some endogeneity (go for it on more fourth downs and expect defense to do better at stopping fourth down plays...), there is no way on the face of the Earth these decisions are going to be rational within the meaning traditionally used in decision theory and economics. (See, eg, every psychology, experimental decision theory, empirical economics, neuroscience of decision... etc... paper ever published bar about two).

The way I understand it, Romer did not use actual 4th down attempts in his study. He derived a point value for every location on the field if you were to give the other team a first down at that point. He then used 3rd down data from the first quarter of every NFL game for 3 years. The 4th down data talked about is him saying that 1100 times that his study says to go for it on 4th down, coaches punted 982.

Some of you have brought up a great point about the momentum factor of losing the ball on 4th down. Romer admits this flaw himself. However, what about the momentum of the offense for converting these 4th downs? How devastating would it be for a team to hold a team to a 4th and 3, think they're sending they're return unit out only to have to play another down and give up a 1st down? I don't know that the momentum swings would "equal" out in real games, but I don't think you can consider one while ignoring the other.

I think Shakey's got it right. Only way to get the sample to anything approaching useful in a 3 year window.

Jacksonville would be an interesting study. Between 06 and 07, seems Del Rio had a substantial shift in his approach towards going for it on 4th downs.

By Uncle Rico (not verified) on 18 Oct 2009 #permalink

Maybe I'm just nerdy or just super girly, but I really, really don't care about sports. Seems like a pointless waste of time.

@LRA

One good thing about sports is that it can give you deep insight to human cognition and reactions under pressure. This insight can be analyzed regarding several human populations, the players, the coaches, the other team staff, and the fan's.

Am i allowed to make a word of advice? There's no doubt that you've got sth great here. But what if you also provided a couple of links to a page that supports what you are? Or maybe you may offer us something to look at, whatever would link up what you are talking about, something more tangible?

The phrase sociable news refers to sites in which users submit and vote on reports tales or other backlinks, therefore figuring out which hyperlinks are introduced.

To build my body strength and stamina, I began weightlifting, eating healthy food, and drinking a ton of water. Doing that was one of the keys to my success as an athlete in high school, college, and the NFL.

i've visited this cool site a few times now and i have to tell you that i find it quite nice actually. continue doing what you're doing! ;)

continue with the the good work on the site. I kinda like it! :) Could use some more frequent updates, but i'm sure that you have got better or other stuff to do like we all have to do unfortunately. =p

continue with the the good work on the site. I kinda like it! :) Could maybe use some more updates more often, but i'm quite sure you got better or other stuff to do like we all do. =)

One more important component is that if you are a senior, travel insurance with regard to pensioners is something you should really contemplate. The old you are, greater at risk you happen to be for permitting something terrible happen to you while abroad. If you are definitely not covered by several comprehensive insurance coverage, you could have some serious issues. Thanks for giving your advice on this blog site.

I am usually to blogging and i really appreciate your content. The article has actually peaks my interest. Iâm going to bookmark your web site and maintain checking for brand spanking new information.

This can be a well crafted post, if only all writers provided exactly the same worth of content while you, the web would be a far better place. Make sure you continue the good work!

Nice post. Affiliate marketing is the way to go if you are serious about making money. I've been doing affiliate marketing for about 4 years now and tell you what, don't fall for those so called gurus selling BS. I just came across a program called "Commision Crusher" by Steve Iser and wanted to tell you about that. I've bought it and I'm really happy to tell say that I have made many times the investment in just one week. It truly rocks! You can read more about it here: http://bit.ly/commisioncrusherplus. You can also contact me through my email if you have any questions or need help. I'll be happy to help :) Barry.

Youre so cool! I dont suppose Ive learn something like this before. So nice to search out any person with some unique thoughts on this subject. realy thank you for beginning this up. this website is something that is needed on the web, somebody with a little originality. useful job for bringing something new to the internet!

hoho this article reminds me of hilarious thing my friend got involved in, she walked on to wet napkin, shout "homoo" and fell down... + food flew to plouse of nearby stander, this happened at our engagement hehe...

Well story short, you'v written very good post, makes me crack a smile.

I imagine this has gotta be some type of evolution trait to determine what kinda person someone is. Whether they are out to get food, if they are friendly, a foe and dangerous. People would need to know how to react to them.

You really make it seem so easy with your presentation but I find this matter to be actually something which I think I would never understand. It seems too complicated and very broad for me. I am looking forward for your next post, I will try to get the hang of it!

Appreciate it for all your efforts that you have put in this. very interesting info . "Illegitimacy is something we should talk about in terms of not having it." by Dan Quayle.

We need an uprising in this country against this Obama Administration. It is as corrupt and full of thieves and liars, if not more so, than any administration on record.

Can you've got more recurrent changes, yet im positive you've got much more or much better information to perform , : ). Please keep on with the good work on your blog. I kinda enjoy it! Might use even more repeated changes, but im really confident you still have other things things to do similar to we all do.

I'm helping some friends manage to get thier shop in the spotlight and noticed. There is a internet site. A good way in my research to optimize a site is to use a blog. That's not me blog savvy and neither is it so take some help about good sites to put there blog in order that they rise to the top..

I think you used to be likely to chip along with some decisive insigth towards the end there. Not get forced out with we leave it to you to decide

Iâm very happy this came to an end.. These miners are a role model! kept their mind focused and didnât lose their minds.. Did you guys hear about the miner that had his side lover waiting to him instead of his woman :) Damn⦠What a story⦠Bye..

Excellent blog here! Also your site loads up fast! What host are you using? Can I get your affiliate link to your host? I wish my site loaded up as fast as yours lol

You're not going to believe this but I have wasted all day hunting for some articles about this. I wish I knew of this site earlier, it was a good read and really helped me out. Have a good one

I used to think a similar thing about the topic but than I saw your recent blog entry on it and it atlered my mind completely.

I can't think if any more specific ways to leave a good comment, but I think the overall rule should be to treat online posting like a conversation you'd have in person with your readers. It's sometimes easy to cross these lines inadvertently.

I loved as much as you will receive carried out right here. The sketch is tasteful, your authored subject matter stylish. nonetheless, you command get got an nervousness over that you wish be delivering the following. unwell unquestionably come more formerly again as exactly the same nearly a lot often inside case you shield this hike.

Thanks for your marvelous posting! I genuinely enjoyed reading it, you might be a great author.I will make sure to bookmark your blog and will eventually come back in the future. I want to encourage continue your great job, have a nice morning!

It's seems uncommon for many to react| negatively to new ideas. I am very grateful with your findings and how you broke down your ideas.

I was more than happy to search out this net-site.I wanted to thanks to your time for this excellent read!! I undoubtedly enjoying each little little bit of it and I have you bookmarked to take a look at new stuff you weblog post.

Hi there just wanted to give you a quick heads up and let you know a few of the images aren't loading correctly. I'm not sure why but I think its a linking issue. I've tried it in two different internet browsers and both show the same results.