History, ancient and not

It may seem to have nothing to do flyways for avian influenza virus, but bear with me. In 1962 there was another flyway that revealed Soviet missiles in Cuba:

It was 0737 in the morning of Sunday 14 October 1962 when Major Richard Heyser began the crossing of Cuba in his U-2. He flew almost due north-on a course some 60 miles to the west of Havana and passed over the northerly beaches six minutes later. In that brief timespan be took 928 pictures, which covered a swath 75 miles wide. The resolution of his best shots was a matter of three feet.

Once past the target, he headed for McCoy Air Force Base near Orlando, Florida. There the exposed film was transferred to special shipping containers, loaded into a courier aircraft, and flown with all deliberate speed to the Naval Photographic Interpretation Center at Suitland, Maryland. It was late in the day when the film arrived; from then on and through the night the Center developed the original negatives and began making duplicate positives-not the usual kind of photoprints on opaque paper, as we amateurs might think, but a special kind of print on clear acetate that the pro's could study over a light table.

The first of -these duplicates reached the National Photographic Interpretation Center (NPIC) just before 1000 on the morning of 15 October. By 1600 that afternoon the photointerpreters (PI's) were almost certain that they had identified large surface-to-surface missiles; in another hour or so they were sure enough for Arthur Lundahl, the Director of NPIC, to pass the word to CIA Headquarters. Headquarters, in turn, reached McGeorge Bundy about 2100 that evening. It was his decision to give the President a night's rest and the PI's a night's more labor before putting the earth-shaking evidence before his chief. (Studies in Intelligence)

Emissaries were sent to brief our allies, DeGaulle in France and MacMillan in the UK. It was clear that in both countries there would be critical questioning for supporting what would be Kennedy's vigorous response:

. . . Macmillan "did not spend more than a few seconds on the photographs;" and except as Mr. Acheson urged him to have a look, General de Gaulle would not have given the photographs even the "few seconds." Their credibility was not at issue . . .

The credibility of the President of the United States and his professional staff was never questioned. I remember the Cuban Missile Crisis. I was an adult, already in medical school. For me it is not ancient history. Which brings me to my bird flu problem.

I'm not an expert on the efficiency of bird testing. But when the US government says they won't be testing as many wild birds or environmental samples for avian influenza virus this year, I am uncertain whether this is a good thing or not.

The United States will test fewer wild birds during 2007 for the avian influenza virus than it did a year ago, but government officials said on Friday surveillance efforts will focus on species and locations with the greatest chance of detecting the virus.

The U.S. Agriculture and Interior departments, which jointly monitor for avian influenza, told Reuters they plan to take about 77,000 samples from wild birds during the April 2007 to March 2008 period.

As part of an effort to rapidly boost domestic surveillance following the spread of the virus overseas, USDA and Interior worked with states to collect more than 111,000 samples during the same period a year ago.

Interior will test about the same number of birds, 27,000, but this time it will spend more effort on dead and sick birds that are more likely to show symptoms of the disease.

A reduction in so-called environmental samples by USDA, such as testing of bird droppings, also will be cut in half to 25,000. (Reuters)

The reason? This year's surveillance has provided enough information and experience to allow better targeting and use of resources. The government's argument is that concentrating mainly on ducks, wigeons and pintails along the major flyways -- the Pacific, Atlantic, Central and Mississippi -- is equivalent to a less focussed, larger program. The greatest effort will be in the Pacific Alaska flyway that overlaps Asian flyways.

But the USDA said much the same after mad cow disease was found in some American cattle in 2003. After a sharp increase in testing, they cut back the next year. Same reasoning. Maybe because I know more about food safety than surveillance of wild birds for viruses, I'm not so quick to accept the explanation on this one. And maybe because I spent the last couple of days at a conference where a colleague described how a mutual acquaintance high up in a Federal agency took the heat and explained, on PBS's Newshour, the rationale for a controversial decision he privately opposed.

Or maybe it's because for me the credibility of this government is ancient history.