When WHO tells us that there is no bigger bird flu problem in China I guess it's all relative. Like the old joke where one old man asks the other how he feels, the answer is "compared to what"?
The World Health Organization says that while there have already been three deaths from bird flu in China this year, there are no signs the deadly disease is becoming a bigger problem.In a statement Wednesday, the WHO's top representative in China, Hans Troedsson, says the three recent cases were not unexpected considering the winter season. (VOA News)
Despite the occurrence of three deaths in China since the first of the year, Troedsson's point is similar to one we have made here frequently of late: it's flu season. So it is plausible to say, as Troedsson does, that the three unrelated cases seem typical in that they had contact with sick poultry and there is no other evidence of transmission beyond them to others. Except.
In fact we don't know much about what makes one person get the disease and not another, similarly exposed one, nor do we usually have much information on all contacts of the cases. "Sick poultry" is not uncommon and without a definition of what "contact with sick poultry" means it is not possible to understand the basis for this judgment. Similarly we don't know how to interpret the statement that "no evidence" of person to person transmission exists. What evidence was considered?
We aren't calling either of these judgments into question. But we are asking what it means that there is no sign of a bigger problem when you have the world's most populous country both in people and poultry reporting continued (and obviously endemic) infection. Most, if not all, of the world's influenza pandemics seem to have started in southern China, H5N1 first poked its head above water there, surveillance in most of the country is hit or miss and it is a country where there are deliberate obstacles to the free flow of information.
Under those conditions, we don't need a bigger problem. The problem is big enough already.
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compared to other countries in the region with BF,
like Vietnam,Indonesia,India
Most, if not all, of the world's influenza pandemics seem to have started in southern China
I thought the 1918 pandemic began in the US, as far as anyone knows.
Aces-If it started in the US, how did it get here? No, we really will never know how it got started. I and a few others have been looking at archives and finding at least anecdotal evidence of large human kills in SE China, N. Vietnam of "something" in the 1890-95 run. There was a "Russian Flu" then as well going on and it was a pandemic with a lower kill rate. Then as the 1900's appeared, there was even more anectotal evidence. The years leading up to 1913 in China seemed to have lot of people dead from "something" as evidenced by the mandarin and missionary records. There were a lot of dead missionaries to go with it.
Then the something popped across Asia into Turkey, up to Romania and then west into France. That pushed it up to about 1915 and "Le Grippe" was widely known at that time in France and especially in the trench warfare. It might have gotten lost in the din of battles that were going on then.
So we go to war and bring them back and ship them to Ft. Riley KS where it may have gone from human to pig and back to humans. No one can prove anything except that people started dropping like rocks and then we had 1918 Panflu.
Is it happening now? Your guess is as good as any but without a doubt this bug has found out how to disassemble our immune systems or for the better part figured out how to make us work for it. As long as it doesnt affect us, nothing is a problem is it? But the "Something" is out there and I for one am looking at the Olympics as a huge vector possibility. Remember, you dont have Bird Flu unless the WHO says so. If you dont test for it, you dont have BF. So, you take it back to say Brisbane they'll call it Australian Flu.
But with the DG of the WHO being Chinese I doubt seriously that they would call it Olympic flu or Beijing flu.
Thanks MRK for that additional info. Not only are many not being tested (not wanting to find anything or not having the resources in some countries or not being able to tell the flu from other diseases). There is also the problem of what Niman calls the goldilocks testing - the wrong test resulting in false negatives.
I had forgotten about the Olympics - all the more reason for China to cover up. And all the more opportunity for the disease to spread. World wide conditions for pandemic are being increased daily - war and famine and continued crowding in cities. All this when production of oil, the lifeblood of our society, is peaking or has peaked.
So it goes.
Winter season, seasonal flu, pandemic risk : A cell can be infected by bird flu (H5N1) and a human flu virus at the same time. Inside the cell, a reassortment of flu RNA might occur leading to the creation of a new pandemic flu type that can spread rapidly from person to person. MSFV
aces et al.: This is all a matter of some controversy, so I opted to say "most if not all" so I wouldn't have to bother with possible exceptions and alternate views. Cowards way out but I'm a coward.
vermueulen: Yes, this is the classical route. The question of recombination has also been raised forcefully by some and there is the usual copy errors, all leading to genetic variation. The question is what leads to the extraordinary virulence? Recent work suggests that intrasubtype reassortants might play a part, for which we need no concomitant H5N1 infections. We've discussed this here quite often.
I have some inside infos on Guangdong Province outbreaks and at the same time some inside infos from the Empire of Surrounding Gov.
The outbreaks is wide and worrying, the Chinese government, (Olympic Proud) has send its best teams and their best capacities to stop in the province this outbreak.
BTW, I have to avoid to contact Guangdong Province for the time being.
Maybe Boxun will get something out, but because of the Olympics and the Proud of China, we should have a critical analysis from wathever comes out of Boxun soon.
Just sharing my infos.
Snowy
A little off topic revere but not by much. Wanted to share this with K and anyone else interested. I stand firmly that the Pandemic, if it's going to hit us, will hit the world after their Olympics.
How many people know that one of their stadiums is called, ironically,
The Birds Nest? And it looks like a birds nest. (saw it on t.v)
K: 8-8-08. It's being advertised on the tube here.
Check out their web site: 'One World, One Dream'
http://en.beijing2008.cn/spirit/beijing2008/graphic/n214068257.shtml
Click on 'Image and Look' link near the top of the page.
Also: a story from 10 Feb 08
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_articl…
British athletes have been told they must sign contracts that will censor them from telling the truth about the China they see and experience during this year's Olympic Games.
The controversial clause has been inserted into athletes' contracts for the first time and forbids them from making any political comment about countries staging the Olympic Games.
Yesterday the British Olympic Association (BOA) confirmed to The Mail on Sunday that any athlete who refuses to sign the agreements will not be allowed to travel to Beijing.
Revere: "The question of recombination has also been raised forcefully by some..."
Thanks tres Revere, for acknowledging and pointing out this viral evolutionary paradigm -- a paradigm consistent with a growing scientific view seeing the environmental release of genetically modified organisms as responsible for the trend of high CFR transgenic pathogens... China has had GM crops for over a decade -- the evidence is available online!
Sounds like they just became professional athletes to me. Ah well Hell, just boycott them and let them take the economic hit. I understand it cost them 200 billion to get ready for them....
But back to the bug. How about we get the Chinese to sign a statement that there is no H2H going on in China so we can protect our athletes? Legal recourse against Chinese assets if there is. Its pretty evident to me that they are rigging the games anyway...Have to eat OUR food? Drink OUR water. Scuse me.... these are the games and not the cafeteria at your high school. So they slip steroids into the water, food and they turn a positive. China wins.
At least for me there is a chance that something like this would/will happen. Then we suddenly have them winning the games, and oh btw...there is this bird flu problem with your athletes.
Someone told me that I had to eat their stuff I think I would tell them where to stuff it.
Hiya Jonny, you Ozzie bum! Whats news? Any more run ins?
Ooops... Bloody grammar! Should read, "...responsible for the trend in high CFR transgenic pathogens." Cheers:*)
Howdy Randy, yeah I agree 100% re: the stuff you put in the ol' body to keep it goin'! I mean really, if the free flow of info is restricted in China, why on planet earth would a knowledgable athelete -- who religiously consumes GMO-FREE cuisine -- trust the party line (spank my ass if I'm wrong, but there aint comprehensive food labeling in China)!?!
Spread of avian flu by water
Proved awareness to ecology and transmission is necessary to understand the spread of avian flu. For this it is insufficient exclusive to test samples from wild birds, poultry and humans for avian flu viruses. Samples from the known abiotic vehicles also have to be analysed. There are plain links between the cold, rainy seasons as well as floods and the spread of avian flu. That is just why abiotic vehicles have to be analysed. The direct biotic transmission from birds, poultry or humans to humans can not depend on the cold, rainy seasons or floods. Water is a very efficient abiotic vehicle for the spread of viruses - in particular of fecal as well as by mouth, nose and eyes excreted viruses.
Infected birds and poultry can everywhere contaminate the drinking water. All humans have very intensive contact to drinking water. To prove viruses in water is difficult because of dilution. If you find no viruses you can not be sure that there are not any. On the other hand in water viruses remain viable for a long time. Water has to be tested for influenza viruses by cell culture and in particular by the more sensitive molecular biology method PCR.
There is a widespread link between avian flu and water, e.g. in Egypt to the Nile delta or Indonesia to residential districts of less prosperous humans with backyard flocks and without central water supply as in Vietnam:
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no12/06-0829.htm.
See also the WHO web side:
http://www.who.int/water_sanitation_health/emerging/h5n1background.pdf and
http://www.umg-verlag.de/umwelt-medizin-gesellschaft/407_m_s.html
�Influenza: Initial introduction of influenza viruses to the population via abiotic water supply versus biotic human viral respirated droplet shedding� and
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473309907700294/a…
�Transmission of influenza A in human beings�.
Avian flu infections may increase in consequence to increase of virus circulation. Transmission of avian flu by direct contact to infected poultry is an unproved assumption from the WHO. There is no evidence that influenza primarily is transmitted by saliva droplets.
In hot climates/the tropics flood-related influenza is typical after extreme weather and floods. Virulence of influenza viruses depends on temperature and time. Special in cases of local water supplies with �young� and fresh H5N1 contaminated water from low local wells, cisterns, tanks, rain barrels, ponds, rivers or rice paddies this pathway can explain small clusters in households. At 24�C e.g. in the tropics the virulence of influenza viruses in water amount to 2 days. In temperate climates for �older� water from central water supplies cold water is decisive to virulence of viruses. At 7�C the virulence of influenza viruses in water amount to 14 days.
Human to human and contact transmission of influenza occur - but are overvalued immense. In the course of influenza epidemics in Germany, recognized clusters are rare, accounting for just 9 percent of cases e.g. in the 2005 season. In temperate climates the lethal H5N1 virus will be transferred to humans via cold drinking water, as with the birds in February and March 2006, strong seasonal at the time when drinking water has its temperature minimum.
The performance to eliminate viruses from the drinking water processing plants regularly does not meet the requirements of the WHO and the USA/USEPA. Conventional disinfection procedures are poor, because microorganisms in the water are not in suspension, but embedded in particles. Even ground water used for drinking water is not free from viruses.
Dipl.-Ing. Wilfried Soddemann - Free Science Journalist - soddemann-aachen@t-online.de
With Wilfried's many posts finally being confirmed that bird bug is in the water, I know I wouldnt go "Mexico" at the games as an athlete or patron.
This is the only Olympics that I am aware of that is requiring this horse shit of "submission." Me, I would send Revere as he would happily sign their statements and about 8 seconds into the games launch off into a tirade against them. What are they going to do? Arrest him? Righhht! When they did, I would turn around and use it as a reason to cancel MFN status with them for suppression of free thought and human rights. They did sign the UN Charter now didnt they?
Drink their provided water? It might be contaminated..... Go to the Olympics and it might be your last....Perrier it aint!
We all know the virus is in waters that are habitats for wild aquatic birds and is probably a mode of transmission in that case. IMO it is unlikely that even minimally disinfected water is a source of infection for human H5N1 or seasonal flu. If the water isn't disinfected I am still dubious that water is a mode of transmission. In my other life I asked both NAS and EPA experts about this and it was clear they hadn't thought hard about it so additional research in this area is certainly indicated, although compared to some other questions I wouldn't put it at the top. I wouldn't be afraid to drink water in Beijing (the Chinese infrastructure in general is better than the US infrastructure in the cities) but I may not want to be in big crowds and certainly would worry about what I said. This is not a place where you can speak freely and it is one reason China will never be a world economic superpower. Now if India had China's infrastructure that would be another kettle of fish.
I travel to Beijing and Shanghai regularly.
Believe me, don't drink the ( tap ) water in either place.