Ike -> Texas

Hurricane Ike appears to be done with Cuba, and remains as a Category One storm. The three day cone is now ashore in Texas, so the predicted location of landfall can be made with increasing certainty with each passing 12 hour period. Conditions for hurricane strengthening are about as good as they get in the Gulf, with nothing important expected to shear at the top, and two or three eddies of warm water to pass over.

The hurricane is currently heading straight west by north west, but will make a right (northerly)turn as it approaches land and will come ashore somewhere along the Texas coast maybe between Corpus Christi and Galveston. If I lived in Port Lavaca I'd be looking for my luggage just about now. But do keep in mind that the current three day cone includes a coastal area from norther Mexico to near Port Arthur.

After coming ashore, Ike wil turn straight north. Oklahoma and the lower Mississippi, or parts of the Southwest may get some serious weather.

Best estimate: Ike will come asore Friday evening or over night as a Category more than you really want storm. There is the potential for Ike to retire.

Louisiana, you're off the hook.

More like this

I have a much larger post coming out about Ike and hurricanes in general, but for now here is a quick update: Ike is going to come ashore between Seven PM tongight and Seven AM tomorrow morning. Since it is a very large storm, the most severe winds will be affecting a very large area. You can…
Hurricane Ike is currently over warm water south of Cuba, and is heading back onto land. Ike will pass over roughly the same area of Western Cuba that was hit by hurricane Gustav. Once back on land, Ike will weaken again, and then by tomorrow morning Ike will be positioned well over the warm…
It is raining cats and dogs in Florida, thanks to Tropical Storm Hanna. Ike remains a real threat. Josephine is a giant question mark. Details below the fold. Hanna is a really large tropical storm that is eventually ... by tomorrow AM ... be more or less over land, where it will quickly move…
UPDATE Sept 9, AM Note that tropical storm force winds may start hitting southern Florida around 1 or 2 PM today, Saturday, and will reach central Florida by about 8AM Sunday. The eye of the storm should be abreast southern Florida at around sunup on Sunday. The storm may remain a major hurricane…

cone of probability says Texas, but the spaghetti model still shows a LA possible track.

Believe it or not, New Mexico is watching Ike. I agree with the northward turn models, but then I'm not a meteorologist. Around here there are people kinda hoping for the extra rain.

Already preparing evacuations along the coastal section of the Lower Rio Grande Valley. We're likely to get a lot of rain here inland, maybe some high winds. Good thing my new inflatable kayak arrived by UPS yesterday...I might have some whitewater just down the hill.

A minister in Houston said we haven't had a hurricane here because we pray so much. Like people in LA don't. If we all pray hard enough along the whole Gulf coast, will Ike go back and forth looking for the least pious place to destroy? What an asshole (the minister, not Ike). If it hits here I'm blaming him (not Him).
Mandatory evacuations have begun on the coast near Houston. Lots of people live near sea level there.

By uncle noel (not verified) on 10 Sep 2008 #permalink

The track is dead on accurate for the next 48 hours, at which time the storm will speed up and the exact track is less clear. There is almost no way in the world it can miss Texas at this point. At this point, the best that can be said regarding the storm's strength is that it will be a Category Three plus or minus one category .... so 2 to 4 is the likely range.

When the storm moves in, it is going to move in fast.

I'll put an update up after the next report from aircraft, mid day or so.

Yeah, New Mexico is watching Ike. That's because Dolly tracked right along the Rio Grande, along the south border of Texas, up into New Mexico. It caused massive flooding in Ruidoso, and a couple of deaths.

Hurricane deaths are exceedingly rare in New Mexico, so it got everyone's attention. Of course, it wasn't a hurricane then, but even so, it was a rare event.