Becky Visits Vanuatu

The South Pacific island chain of Vanuatu is a kind of canary in the coalmine for global warming. A settlement on Vanuatu's Tegua Island has already had to be relocated due to sea level rise. (See also here.) The problem was that with ever rising seas, low lying islands--and those living there--are subject to ever higher surges during storms. Eventually, the assault from the ocean becomes too much and you have to move.

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In this context, Vanuatu may get a test with cyclone Becky, whose projected path is shown above (courtesy of the RMSC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Center). So far Becky is just a Category 1 hurricane offshore, but it's expected to steadily intensify as it rakes Vanuatu's islands.

That can't be good...

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Can you explain this in a bit more detail? The ever reliable Wikipedia says that sea levels have risen by 3 mm since 1900, and you say that questions remain about the link between global warming and more frequent/stronger storms, so why have people already started evacuating?

By Jonathan Vause (not verified) on 27 Mar 2007 #permalink

OK disregard that question, 3 mm/y since 1900 is a bit more significant.

By Jonathan Vause (not verified) on 27 Mar 2007 #permalink

What a bizarre track! And it exposes most of the islands to the worst quadrant, too.

By Steve Bloom (not verified) on 27 Mar 2007 #permalink

Is it any coincidence that the hurricane track seems to follow the path of the islands? I profess no information of hurricane physics.

By Tyson Bottenus (not verified) on 27 Mar 2007 #permalink

Man, my experience is that hurricane tracks can do pretty much *anything,* depending entirely on the environment, which is to say, the steering currents.