The latest National Hurricane Center forecast discussion, from forecaster Eric Blake, is blunt:
BASED ON WHAT WE THINK WE KNOW ABOUT INTENSITY CHANGE...THERE DO NOT SEEM TO BE TOO MANY INHIBITING FACTORS TO A FUTURE INTENSIFICATION OF DEAN. GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE AS THE SYSTEM TRAVELS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN COMBINATION WITH VERY DEEP WARM WATERS...THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POWERFUL HURRICANE.
Here is the latest track for Dean, which is supposed to be a hurricane within 24 hours:
- Log in to post comments
Thats a too familar sort of track, likely into the gulf of Mexico. Fortunately its a fairly narrow passage (if Dean wants to avoid damaging itself with land interaction).
I'm headed to Varadero, Cuba for a week-long vacation on Friday. The city is just on the (north) edge of the 4-5 day forecast track, so hopefully it'll miss entirely. Still a bit worrying though...
Chris,
I am in Baton Rouge. We've already started stocking up on batteries and ice. Gotta beat the "it's on the Gulf" rush.
I have bad feelings about this storm (despite being a rationalist). I really don't want to go through a Katrita phenomenon again.
Kiss Sheril for me.
Cheers,
Jeb, FCD
Some high tropical heat potential in the path of Dean.
It also looks similar to Wilma, which wreaked havoc on the Yucatan peninsula. (My sister's ground-floor apartment had water three feet deep in the living room, and lots of hotels in Cancun got completely smashed to pieces). I hope they don't have to live through that again, just after rebuilding.
And Metro Manila has just been thrashed by "super typhoon" Sepat, with winds peaking around 225 km/h and torrential rains "unexpected even in MM" which is now heading toward Taiwan . . .
http://www.philstar.com/index.php?Headlines&p=49&type=2&sec=24&aid=2007…
Hey Folks,
thanks for all the comments. Remember there's still very high uncertainty about where Dean will go, though looking at the track, I get pretty worried too. And indeed, I woke up and the storm is now officially a hurricane.
I disagree with the Wilma analogy. Wilma developed in the Caribbean as often happens with our October hurricanes. By contrast, Dean is one of the dreaded Cape Verde-type storms, which travel all the way across the Atlantic, building up strength along the way. A better (and equally scary) analogy might be Hurricane Ivan.
Finally, Fred, I think Metro Manila would only have gotten rainfall from Sepat, which I've been watching closely. This storm is out over the water and that's where it has done its intensification....
cm