The National Hurricane Center has put Dean's official intensity at 140 knots, or 160 miles per hour--or Category 5. But the storm is intensifying just before landfall--a truly evil thing for it to do--and might be even stronger. Here's the latest, revealing forecast discussion:
DEAN HAS TAPPED INTO ENERGY PROVIDED BY THE DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING...AND HAS REACHED CATEGORY FIVE STATUS WITH AN INTENSITY OF 140 KT. DURING THE LAST PENETRATION BY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT 00Z...A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 914 MB WAS MEASURED. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WAS 162 KT...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 145 KT AT THE SURFACE. DUE TO COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS...WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED ALL OF THE DROPSONDE AND SFMR DATA IN REAL-TIME. THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS SET TO A POSSIBLY CONSERVATIVE 140 KT...PENDING A MORE THOROUGH EXAMINATION OF ALL OF THE AIRCRAFT DATA. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL ARRIVE IN THE EYE OF DEAN IN A FEW HOURS...PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE EVOLVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF DEAN REVEALS AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE PATTERN...AND A VERY WELL-DEFINED AND GRADUALLY CONTRACTING EYE WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 20 N MI. REPORTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT...AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...PROVIDE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY INNER-CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES THAT WOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
What an experience: To be that pilot and crew flying into the eye of a still intensifying Category 5 Dean, just before landfall, in the middle of the night.
They're the only safe ones, that's for sure.
Maybe they'll report back that this is an even stronger storm. Maybe that will only be announced in the post-season reanalysis of the data. Who knows.
Whatever we determine from our data, in real time or in the aftermath, Dean is going to be bad enough for anyone in its path.
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Dean is the 8th Atlantic cat 5 in 10 years. There is no previous 10-year period with more than 6 category 5 Atlantic hurricanes. (Easy of September 1951 and Hattie of October 1961 were just over 10 years apart. If the second cat 5 of 1961 had occurred by September 5th, 57 days earlier, there would have been 7 cat 5s in 10 years)