Here's a picture of the Caribbean and Central Atlantic this morning. A tropical wave that came off of Africa a while back--and that the National Hurricane Center is designating 91L--looks much more organized than it did yesterday, as you can plainly see.
I'm not a forecaster, though I pay attention to some of the same stuff they do. In any event, I have a hunch we may be hearing more about this one soon.
Meanwhile, I am off to give various New Jersey talks, but hopefully will be checking in here at some point during the day....
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If it heads toward the Caribbean, (like Dean or Felix) it may encounter a lot of shear . However note the low shear over the Bahamas. So far the models seem evenly divided as to which way it will go. In both cases it may encounter some dust (which would hamper intensification). Its conditions are not nearly as favorable as Dean's or Felix's at similar points in their lifetimes.
By the way, see the nhc's tropical disturbance statement about the Gulf of Mexico.
Looks like it will have to be Ingrid...
Yeah, Humberto came out of nowhere yesterday, huh?