Did the Monte Hall problem, trip up a huge number of psychologists? So claims this New York Times article. For a good detailed explanation see here. For even more detail see the actual paper.
More like this
We cleared a bunch of space in our deep storage area over the summer, and one of the things we found was a box full of old student theses from the 1950's and 1960's.
Now this is how you sell pens!
Yesterday, I wrote about financial speculators and their impacts on commodity markets, focusing on oil.
The money quote: I doubt that his critique will be all that influential for the field of cognitive dissonance more broadly.
Independent proof of CD?
Pieter, there are a variety of other lines of evidence for the existence, nature and extent of cognitive dissonance so it isn't like that this point will that large an influence on matters. It doesn't take any cognitive dissonance to think that. Indeed, I suspect that if this phenomenon were not confirmed by other lines of evidence someone would have noticed this problem already.
What's interesting about the article is that the answer goes against our intuition that, with two unopened doors left, the odds are 50-50 that the car is behind one of them. Your first guess has a one in three chance of being right, but the second happens 2 out of 3 times.
What do you think?