2008 Election

The Barna Group is known for its precision in tracking the preferences of religious groups, especially Evangelicals. The organization today released its latest election survey, finding that Obama is within the margin of error with McCain among self-described Evangelicals and leads across other major faith groups, though this lead has slipped somewhat over the past few months. As I've noted, McCain appears to be using strong religious imagery in his advertisements as a "Left Behind" strategy to shore up his support among Evangelicals. Obama's faith based strategy likely aims to capture a…
Straight talk express? McCain with Jerry Falwell. Last week, I noted McCain's not-so-subtle attempt in a new Web advertisement to draw comparisons between Obama and the anti-Christ with the ad using imagery taken directly from the immensely popular Left Behind series of books. Now Time magazine reports that the Web spot's creator has close ties to Christian Coalition guru Ralph Reed. Moreover, for the past two years, allegations that Obama is the anti-Christ have been bubbling up at far right Christian sites, fears that reached a crescendo after Obama's speech at Berlin two weeks ago. The ad…
Edwards' follies are likely to hurt Democratic chances in November and further derail media attention from issues that really matter. Tonight on ABC Nightline, John Edwards will admit his affair but will deny the alleged love child, putting even more of a twist on the brewing media tsunami. As I predicted last week, this story promises to dominate the news agenda for August, leading up to and through the Democratic convention. Unfortunately, denying the link to the child will only drive the story and make it bigger. If there is any silver lining, it's that Edwards chose a Friday to make the…
Mark McKinnon was the genius behind Bush's 2004 media strategy. The Bush campaign successfully portrayed Bush as "a strong leader in a time of change" while redefining Kerry as "weak, waffling, and weird." For more, see the clip above, with McKinnon discussing how they turned 9/11 and metaphors about the "war on terror" to the Bush campaign's advantage. So does this sound familiar? It's the exact strategy that McCain is applying so effectively in his recent advertising blitz. McKinnon also directed McCain's media strategy up through the primaries, and then in a rare moment of modern day…
Obamaone1by dollarsandsense123 You knew this was coming. For most Americans, this latest advertisement from McCain attacking Obama will be seen as deep irony, morphing Obama's political celebrity into a matter of audacious vanity and narcissism. But for many Evangelicals, there is probably a second meaning to this ad. Indeed, the signal is not just one of vanity, but one playing on the theme of Obama as anti-Christ. Not only is he not one of us, but his coming should invoke Biblical fear. See for yourself above.
With the election in full swing, the Fall semester is shaping up to be an exciting time here at American University in Washington, DC. In fact, in recently released national rankings, The Princeton Review named AU as the the "most politically active" campus in the country, as #13 in terms of quality of life, and Washington, DC as a "top 5" college town. In its profile on AU, The Princeton Review quotes extensively from students. Their comments include, "This school lives, breathes, eats, and sleeps politics," a club exists "for just about every type of person you can think of," because of…
Last week I noted that McCain is scoring political body blows with a compelling message on energy and that the Obama campaign has not responded to the massive shifts in public preferences that have occurred on the issue since early spring of this year. The message gap on energy grew wider this week as McCain released his latest television spot (clip above). McCain knows "that we must drill more in America and rescue our family budgets" claims the ad. Obama on the other hand--while staging rallies for adoring and chanting supporters--is personally responsible for rising gas prices and…
Sigh. Ugh. Damn! That was my reaction when I heard about the brewing allegations that John Edwards had cheated on his sick wife and had fathered a love child. My reaction was not because of disappointment in Edwards. I personally don't think affairs reveal that much about the qualities that make for a strong president. Nor am I really that surprised when powerful men driven by fame and ambition cheat on their wives. I suspect it's a temptation that is in most elected officials' DNA, republican or democrat. But rather, my reaction was in anticipation of what is a whisp of evidence or video…
As I like to say, when it comes to science debates, the public is far more likely to be miserly in reaching a judgment than fully informed. Most citizens are cognitive misers relying heavily on information short cuts and heuristics to make up their minds about a science controversy, often in the absence of knowledge. The fragmented nature of our modern media system magnifies the problem of a miserly public, introducing the "problem of choice." Absent a strong preference for the really good science coverage available, citizens can completely avoid such information, paying attention instead to…
On energy policy, all eyes turn to McCain. Earlier this week I spotlighted the unheard of 20-30 point shift since February in how Americans view what should be done about the energy problem, with as many liberals now as conservatives favoring energy exploration and investment in nuclear power over conservation efforts and regulation. As I noted, given this quickly changing interpretative landscape, it's not surprising that the first GOP-funded television spot of the presidential campaign touted McCain's "balanced" approach on energy and his willingness to "stand up" to his own party on the…
John McCain, in an interview with the NY Times, admitted that he does not know how to use the Web or even email. McCain, who will turn 73 in August, is well behind trends among other Americans his age. Pew reports in its latest survey that more than 30% of Americans age 65 and older are online and this figure is likely to be over 50% among college educated seniors. (For example, my 91 year old Grandfather owns a computer, sends me email, and reads my blog.) Should we care that McCain lacks even a basic familiarity with the online world? Consider that a President McCain would probably be the…
On Sunday, Discovery Channel's Ted Koppell returned to his old network home to appear on ABC News This Week. Koppell was on the round table panel in part to promote his fascinating new five part series "The Republic of Capitalism," which airs starting Wed. night at 10pm EST. Also appearing on the panel were Mark Halperin of "Time" magazine, Jonathan Capehart of 'The Washington Post" and Michelle Cottle of 'The New Republic." Among the topics discussed was Barack Obama's faith-based strategy, specifically his announcement last week that he would continue to support federal funding for social…
Satire at its best, decoding the label "elitist" as applied to Barack Obama. As Colbert puts it: "Let's face it, Obama is not an average Joe like me and David Brooks!"
So how did Barack Obama beat improbable odds to capture the Democratic nomination? A team of reporters at the Washington Post has the best account I've seen on Obama's ingenious state and delegate strategy.
As I wrote last week, in John McCain's recent television ad focusing on global warming, he frames his position as a pragmatic "middle way" approach between the two extremes of denying there is a problem and resorting to heavy taxation and regulation. The ad even ends by offering up the complementary frames that global warming is in fact a national security problem and involves a moral duty to future generations. Perhaps most notably, the ad opens by using imagery of more intense hurricanes, a "pandora's box" framing that has led to claims of alarmism directed at advocates such as Al Gore. So…
The irony of the 2008 presidential race is that this time around, the Democratic nominee is by far the more religiously devout candidate, promoting a born again language and professed faith. In a match up with John McCain, it's Barack Obama who can genuinely speak the language of evangelicals, softening some of the Democratic party's "God problem." Indeed, news reports are speculating that many young Evangelical voters might break for Obama in the general election, a proposition that fits with some of the recent polling data that I have spotlighted at this blog. The Obama campaign is already…
tags: fox news, subliminal suggestion, voting behavior, politics, streaming video This streaming video shows a rather clumsy attempt by FauxSnooz to subliminally influence American voters. [1:15]. So .. do you think this might work by influencing innocent minds to vote against a person's best interests?
The NY Times runs a lengthy front page Sunday feature exploring Obama's years as an activist and politician in the Hyde Park neighborhood of Chicago. As the feature recounts, Obama has always been a political pragmatist and a master at framing a message that brings diverse constituencies together. "There are some people who say he's not strong enough on this or that, that he's wishy-washy, that he's trying to have it both ways," Abner J. Mikva, a former congressman and mentor to Obama tells the NY Times. "But he's not looking for how to exclude the people who don't agree with him. He's…
In a new campaign advertisement (above), Senator John McCain focuses on global warming, framing his position as a pragmatic "middle way" approach between the two extremes of denying there is a problem and resorting to heavy taxation and regulation. The ad even ends by offering up the complementary frame that global warming is in fact a national security problem. (Also notably, the ad refers to and uses imagery of more intense hurricanes, a "pandora's box" framing that has led to claims of alarmism directed at advocates such as Al Gore.) While McCain's commitment to climate change policy is…
Gallup has released a survey showing that at this point in the race, Obama's association with Wright may be potentially more damaging to his candidacy than McCain's continued embrace of Bush. The reason, as the survey details (below), is that the association with Wright actually hurts McCain among some Democrat leaners (19% say less likely to vote for Obama), whereas McCain's strong alliance with Bush has less of an impact among Republican leaners (10% less likely to vote for McCain). In political advertising and messaging, you can expect both campaigns along with independent expenditure…