2008 Election
nisbetmc | May 11, 2008
Obama as young Luke Skywalker, Hillary as Darth Vader, Bill as the Emperor, Bill Richardson as Han Solo. This new viral video promoting Obama's candidacy is brilliant and effective humor. Just more evidence as to why Obama is engaging young voters like no other presidential candidate in recent memory.
nisbetmc | May 9, 2008Can a radio talk show host motivate Republicans to turn out in a Democratic primary and vote strategically for a candidate? Past research suggests that political talk radio can have an independent influence on political participation, but in the primaries last week, how much specific impact did Rush Limbaugh's Operation Chaos have on the primary results?
Limbaugh urged his mostly Republican listeners to turn out and vote for Clinton. I am sure we will see analysis and papers from political scientists on this topic, but for now, here's the best summary of the exit poll data that I have seen…
nisbetmc | May 5, 2008
Do voters under the age of 30 always trend more liberal and more likely to vote Democrat? Contrary to conventional wisdom, history and data say "No."
Political preferences are a product not just of lifecycle shifts but are also linked to the political climate. As Pew reviews in a recent analysis (graph above), the current generation of young voters, who came of age during the turmoil, scandal, and failures of the George W. Bush presidency, trend strongly Democrat, just as the previous generation of GenXers who grew up in the prosperous Reagan years trended Republican. Here's more from the…
nisbetmc | April 27, 2008
In the wake of Clinton's victory in Pennsylvania, the NY Times editorialized that Hillary's campaign team had taken "the low road to victory." According to the Times, one particular ad (above) had put her campaign over the edge into Karl Rove territory:
On the eve of this crucial primary, Mrs. Clinton became the first Democratic candidate to wave the bloody shirt of 9/11. A Clinton television ad -- torn right from Karl Rove's playbook -- evoked the 1929 stock market crash, Pearl Harbor, the Cuban missile crisis, the cold war and the 9/11 attacks, complete with video of Osama bin Laden. "If…
nisbetmc | April 22, 2008In an op-ed at the Seattle Times, communication scholars Dave Domke and Kevin Coe note the absurd God & Country tests that have been applied to Barack Obama, ranging from the "Give Praise to God" test to the "Flag Lapel Pin" test and most recently the "God Bless America" test.
As it turns out, the tradition of saying "God Bless America" by political leaders is a manufactured illusion that has been turned into a patriotic sales pitch, only dating to Ronald Reagan and applied strategically in the post-9/11 Bush presidency.
Here's what Domke and Coe report:
Consider this reality: The…
nisbetmc | March 10, 2008Student Pugwash has launched a very interesting science, environment, and technology guide for young voters. Press release below.
Student Pugwash USA Launches Science Policy Election Guide for Young Voters
Washington, DC (March 5, 2008): Addressing questions about climate change, energy security, and other concerns expressed by young voters in a recent survey, Student Pugwash USA launched From Electrons to Elections, a science and technology policy guide to the 2008 elections.
From Electrons to Elections is a non-partisan resource designed to educate young voters on science, technology, and…
nisbetmc | March 2, 2008With more than a million contributors and volunteers, if Obama makes it to the Oval Office, he could be the first "network president." That's how Joe Trippi on PBS NOW explains the Obama campaign's potential to turn their digitally linked contributors and volunteers into a massive political force to push through legislation on gridlocked issues like climate change.
nisbetmc | February 27, 2008
A perspective from Vanderbilt University professor John Greer: When a candidate goes on the offensive to show the harm in an opponent's preferred policies or an inconsistency between an opponent's words and their actions, it helps set an important comparison point for voters.
When those attacks are false or play on the opponent's race, gender, ethnicity, or religion, it's under these conditions that attack politics harm democracy. Of course, it's important that attack politics, no matter how substantive, do not occur in a vacuum. The news media has to play an important role as "fact…
nisbetmc | February 24, 2008Traveling back from talks at UTexas, I spotted this front page feature in today's Austin American Statesman. As I have noted at this blog before, according to surveys and experts who track the Evangelical movement, a generational split has emerged among Evangelicals when it comes to the issues of most salient concern. Evangelicals 40 and older tend to vote for the most socially conservative candidate and rally around issues like abortion and same-sex marriage, but evangelicals under 40 are defining a new set of political priorities, with poverty and the environment at the top of the list.
nisbetmc | February 21, 2008In the Wall Street Journal today, GOP strategist Karl Rove rejects conventional wisdom that Obama is vulnerable simply because of the two sided attacks from Clinton and McCain, but rather because in Tuesday night's Wisconsin speech he made a shift away from a centrist to a "left" political agenda. With Rove offering this new line of attack in the Wall Street Journal, expect it to be among the emerging talking points on talk radio and cable news.
Unlike Bill Clinton in 1992, Mr. Obama is completely unwilling to confront the left wing of the Democratic Party, no matter how outrageous its…
nisbetmc | February 20, 2008Expect a lot more of this train of thought pushed by the Clinton campaign and various journalists and pundits over the next two weeks leading up to the primaries in Ohio and Texas.
nisbetmc | February 18, 2008A good overview of the relevant research in social psychology from the Sunday Boston Globe.
nisbetmc | February 18, 2008
Over at my friends Chris and Sheril's Intersection blog, I posted a summary of some reservations I have always had about the staging of an actual presidential science debate. Bottom line: research suggests that when it comes to audience effects, a presidential debate is a really bad idea. Despite our best wishes, intentions, and hopes for deliberative democracy, the reality is that a debate would be sending the strongest of invitations to the American public to think about science in partisan terms. Go here for my comments.
If the goal is to turn science into a wedge issue, as the Dems…
nisbetmc | January 29, 2008Collectively, the polls show a double digit lead for Clinton over Obama in California. Yet a recent Gallup survey goes beyond the standard numbers and offers estimates based on a high versus low turnout and more importantly, based on the certainty of respondents as to their vote preference. The results show that there is still time for Obama to make up the difference on Clinton among undecideds. From the Gallup survey:
Clinton leads Barack Obama by 12 points to 18 points, depending on turnout assumptions. John Edwards languishes much further behind.
About a fifth to a quarter of Democratic…
nisbetmc | January 28, 2008
The American University campus surged with excitement and energy today as thousands of students and supporters gathered hours before the rally to bear witness to the Kennedy family's historic endorsement of Barack Obama for president.
Needless to say, college branding doesn't get much better than this. It also makes for great discussion in my Political Communication seminar tomorrow night. A former grad student, David Corey, was blogging the event in real time.
nisbetmc | January 23, 2008On the Kojo Nnamdi Show at noon EST today, I will be joined by David Jenkins, Government Affairs Director for Republicans for Environmental Protection
and Gene Karpinski, President, League of Conservation Voters. Should be an interesting discussion on environmental issues and how they are playing out at the national and local political races.
You can tune in to the NPR affiliate's live or archived broadcast here.
nisbetmc | January 22, 2008Tomorrow, I will be appearing on WAMU's Kojo Nnamdi show for a segment called "A bi-partisan approach to environmentalism." The show starts at noon EST and you can listen live or to the audio archive here. I will post more details on the other guests when they become available. To preview my take on the environmental agenda in the 2008 election, see my recent column on "Going Beyond Gore's Message."
Late last year I appeared on the same program to discuss science policy and communication. Listen here.
nisbetmc | January 19, 2008Scholars have long warned about the increasing sound bite nature of our media and political system, but overlooked is the visual nature of this trend. A new study in the Journal of Communication is the first to systematically track and contextualize this troubling tendency of the American public sphere:
Taking Television Seriously: A Sound and Image Bite Analysis of Presidential Campaign Coverage, 1992-2004
This study updates and builds on Hallin's landmark investigation of sound-bite news by documenting the prevalence of candidate image bites, where candidates are shown but not heard (as…
nisbetmc | January 16, 2008In reaction to policymaking that they believe ignores or distorts scientific expertise, scientists more and more are assuming direct advocacy roles. The latest sign from today's Washington Post:
Two dozen scientists swarmed over Capitol Hill this week mad as vespinae ( hornets) at what they say is Bush administration meddling in environmental science.
Organized by the Union of Concerned Scientists and the Endangered Species Coalition, the rumpled researchers won time in the offices of more than 20 lawmakers. They are protesting what Francesca Grifo, director of the Scientific Integrity…
nisbetmc | January 15, 2008This semester at American University, I am teaching an advanced undergraduate/graduate seminar on Political Communication. Needless to say, it's the right time and the right city to be teaching this course. I've included a link to the the syllabus which contains hyperlinks to many of the assigned readings.Download syllabus
Below is the course description:
This course reviews major areas of research in political communication, connecting this scholarly work to the insights of leading political strategists and journalists. General topics covered include:
A)How political communication and…