H1N1
ddobbs | September 2, 2009On the radar of late:
Neuroskeptic ponders reports that antidepressant use in the U.S. has doubled in the last decade. As he notes, perhaps the most troubling thing finding in the study is that
the number of Americans using an antipsychotic as well as an antidepressant increased by a factor of more than 3. This is, frankly, extremely troubling, since antipsychotics are by far the worst psychiatric drugs in terms of side effects. There is evidence that some antipsychotics can be of use in depression as an add-on to antidepressants, but there is better evidence for other alternatives, such as…
gregladen | July 13, 2009... or is obesity simply Yet Another Risk Factor in severity of this illness?
Probably the latter, but health officials seem interested in the developing data.
From CTV:
... in a report released Friday, health officials detailed the cases of 10 Michigan patients who were very sick from swine flu in late May and early June and ended up at a specialized hospital in Ann Arbor. Three of them died.
Nine of the 10 were either obese or extremely obese. Only three of the 10 had other health problems. Two of the three that died had no other health conditions.
This hardly settles the question of…
ddobbs | July 2, 2009Helen Branswell delivers some sobering news:Swine flu viruses are missing at least two key features seen in all flu viruses present and past that transmit well among people and yet the viruses are spreading quite efficiently, two new studies suggest.
The research groups which produced the work differ slightly in their views of the degree to which the novel H1N1 virus is spreading, with one finding transmission isn't yet as efficient as with human flu viruses while the other finding transmission rates are in lockstep with those of seasonal flu cousins.
There is no disputing the evidence,…
gregladen | June 29, 2009The novel swine flu has affected its one millionth American. The first death in England has been recorded (a 9 year old girl). Yesterday, the first Brazilian death was recorded. When we look at the map of the disease, note that many regions of Africa are totally devoid of cases. Just so you know ... this is not some special African immunity. This is simply because the global health network has failed Africa and we have no clue what is going on there, and never have had a clue.
A new wrinkle in the process for North Americans, possibly with parallels elsewhere, is the summer camp…
grrlscientist | June 4, 2009tags: NYC, New York City, Manhattan, swine flu, influenza, A/H1N1 Influenza, New York Academy of Sciences, NYAS
This is an overview of the NYAS symposium about Influenza A/H1N1 "swine flu" outbreak that I was invited to attend on 28 May 2009 in NYC.
Under the auspices of the New York Academy of Sciences' Emerging Infectious Diseases and Microbiology Discussion Group, vaccine experts, epidemiologists, and policymakers from around the United States met in New York City to discuss the current outbreak of Influenza A/H1N1 -- "swine flu." The program presented information about influenza…
ddobbs | May 6, 2009In a post titled "Dead, Your Majesty," H5N1, Crof ponders why we scramble to deal with swine flu while ignoring other problems ranging from cancer to the 3000 children a day who die of malaria in Africa :
Most of us are comfortably settled in rich industrial countries where problems like TB and AIDS are rarely in the news. Zimbabwe, like our own homeless, is a deplorable problem...but not our problem. We'd prefer to focus, via high-speed internet connections, on a conjectural disaster instead of the many real disasters killing people somewhere else.
If a thousand people died in the US…
tsmith | May 5, 2009
Now if he could just get his science straight when it comes to vaccination...but perhaps this mean he's changed his views on the germ theory?
(H/T Louis)
tsmith | May 3, 2009Over at DailyKos, DemfromCT has an excellent post explaining why it may be beneficial for schools to close temporarily, even if they only have one confirmed case of swine influenza: H1N1: Why Do Schools Close, And When Do They Open?
DarkSyde also has one up on the basic biology and evolution of the flu.
Nick Kristof discusses our lack of attention to public health and what it means in the event of a pandemic in today's NY Times.
[Updated: and via the comment theads, this post which further discusses what I mentioned here regarding testing--and how the confirmed cases are only the tip…
ddobbs | May 1, 2009Theme of the day (again, sort of): managing expectation, or Do I panic or just ignore this thing and scoff at those who express concern?
Neither, of course.
I'm personally provisionally encouraged at the aggregated news from yesterday -- meaning I was glad to see that though the virus is spreading, its pace doesn't seem to be wildly accelerating and, more important, there are some signs that it's not (at this point) horrifically virulent; some experts are saying it might not be much worse than a regular seasonal flu, and the warming weather is on our side.
Same time, it makes sense to take…
tsmith | April 30, 2009I've been seeing a lot of comments mocking the current outbreak of H1N1, and a lot of people (and journalists) who don't understand what "big deal" is about the "snoutbreak" of swine influenza, or don't get what the raising of the World Health Organization's pandemic alert phase up to 5 means. I noted here what the alert level meant, but wanted to discuss it a bit more in a full post; after the jump.
So, some comments I've seen thrown about:
This is all just media hype! Lies about the Mexican cases! The WHO just revised their numbers down to 26 cases and 7 deaths! Why should I believe…
ddobbs | April 30, 2009Nature's Declan Butler looks at how baffled virologists are as they examine this virus's DNA:
Researchers are scrambling to study the evolution and spread of the novel H1N1 strain of swine influenza whose leap to humans was officially confirmed last week....
The genetic make-up of this swine flu virus is unlike any that researchers have seen. It is an H1N1 strain that combines a triple assortment first identified in 1998 â including human, swine and avian influenza â with two new pig H3N2 virus genes from Eurasia, themselves of recent human origin.
"It has been mixing all over the place,…
tsmith | April 29, 2009It was only a matter of time:
Iowa Gov. Chet Culver says the state has two probable causes of swine flu.
Speaking Wednesday at a Statehouse news conference, Culver told reporters that officials would know Thursday if the cases are swine flu.
Officials say one case was from a California resident who visited Scott and Clinton counties last week. The other was a woman who returned from Mexico and traveled through Johnson, Des Moines and Muscatine counties.
State Medical Director Patricia Quinlisk says both of the people infected were now recovering.
Should know by tomorrow if they are confirmed…
tsmith | April 29, 2009The latest numbers of confirmed cases from the CDC were released about an hour ago. 91 cases have been confirmed, with the largest numbers in New York (51), California (14), and Texas (16). One new case has also been confirmed in Nevada, one in Indiana, one in Arizona, and 2 in Michigan; the other Ohio case I know of is still pending, apparently. Ongoing investigations are also taking place in multiple states, so expect the number to keep rising for the time being. [Update: 2 cases just confirmed in Massachussets, and three in Maine.]
The first fatality has also been reported: a 23-month-…
ddobbs | April 29, 2009This swine flu business is moving fast now, with confirmed or reported cases popping up everywhere and the first reported death outside Mexico -- a 23-month-old child in Texas -- reported this morning. As Effect Measure notes
Some of the fear [generated in the U.S. by this deat] will be lessened by the new knowledge that the baby contracted the disease in another country. The empathy remains, as it should. Mexican babies are still babies, loved by their parents and grandparents even while being hostages to fortune like everyone.
As this outbreak moves forward we will be barraged by numbers…
tsmith | April 28, 2009Back in 2007, I wrote about an outbreak of swine influenza from an Ohio county fair. The peer-reviewed paper analyzing the swine influenza isolated from that outbreak has just recently come out. From the abstract:
The swine isolate, A/SW/OH/511445/2007 (OH07), was evaluated in an experimental challenge and transmission study reported here. Our results indicate that the OH07 virus was pathogenic in pigs, was transmissible among pigs, and failed to cross-react with many swine H1 anti-sera. Naturally exposed pigs shed virus as early as 3 days and as long as 7 days after contact with…
tsmith | April 28, 2009Stories in Spanish: Costa Rica becomes the first Central American country to confirm swine flu ("gripe porcina"). A 21 year old who had traveled to Mexico is in stable condition. An additional 16 cases were examined but were negative. Brazil is also examining 11 travelers; cases are also being examined in Panama, Honduras, Argentina, and Uruguay, and Chile.
In Asia, South Korea is examining a possible case, while China's stepped up its efforts to look for cases (and blocked import of pork from the US and Mexico).
Most of the cases that are being examined have traveled to Mexico…
ddobbs | April 28, 2009The excellent blog H5N1 (now covering H1N1 as well, and all over it), points us to the New York Times for an op-ed by John M. Barry, author of the definitive history of the Spanish flu in the US: Where Will the Swine Flu Go Next? Excerpt:
As the swine flu threatens to become the next pandemic, the biggest questions are whether its transmission from human to human will be sustained and, if so, how virulent it might become.
But even if this virus were to peter out soon, there is a strong possibility it would only go underground, quietly continuing to infect some people while becoming…
tsmith | April 27, 2009...asked Joe. Answer: only a few days to sequence, clean up the data, and submit to NCBI. Seven H1N1 swine flu sequences are up (H/T Jonathan Eisen). I've not had a chance to crack anything open yet, but I hope to see some analysis from more of the genomics geeks soon...However, one bummer is that they don't have any from the Mexico cases available--and particularly, any sequence data from any of the fatal cases. These will be helpful to see if there are any point mutations that could possibly account for a virulence difference between the Mexican and US cases. (Unlikely, I'd guess,…
amillikan | April 27, 2009
Correction appended: This post incorrectly stated the Center for Disease Control as the organization responsible for raising the pandemic threat level. This is the duty of the World Health Organization.
Swine flu outbreaks are raising alarm across the globe and prompting the World Health Organizationto consider raising the pandemic threat level. For the most current interpretations of what's happening from experts on the ScienceBlogs network, see the following category threads: "Pandemic-Preparedness" and "Swine Flu" from Revere at Effect Measure, and "Influenza" and "Outbreak" from Tara…
ddobbs | April 27, 2009
"Swine Flu and the Mexico Mystery," my story on the swine-flu outbreak, is up at Slate. It looks at a question hotly pursued right now: Why does this flu seem to take a much deadlier course in Mexico than elsewhere so far? The answers will suggest much about what's to come.
Of the two two qualities vital to a nasty pandemicm-- to spread readily, and to be deadly, -- this flu,a brand-new strain of swine flu, or H1N1, seems to possess the first: Evidence is high that it spreads readily among humans. In that sense, it's an inversion of the bird flu. Bird flu terrifies infectious disease…