Severe weather
gregladen | February 20, 2013You hear, again again, that climate and weather are not the same thing. This has led to assertions such as "you can't attribute a single weather event to climate change." But climate and weather are not distinctly different. Climatologists and meteorologists have made statements like this because people do confuse and conflate current conditions and weather forecasts on one hand with climate systems and climate change observations and modeling on the other. Saying "climate and weather are not the same thing" is a convenient segue into a discussion of how certain conclusions may be invalid…
gregladen | February 10, 2013Climate experts have pointed out that Nemo, the very bad nor’easter that just hit the Northeastern US and Maritimes, is partly an effect of global warming. Some meteorologists have responded with an incorrect response, a recitation of a now tired and useless mumbling retort that I’m afraid may even have it origin among scientists who should know better, and at the very least was kept alive by them for far too long: “Well, you can’t really attribute any given weather event to climate change.” Some regular people who are not climate scientists have repeated that faleshood as well. Then there…
gregladen | December 16, 2012On June 6th, 1944, some 160,000 soldiers aboard about 5,000 boats of diverse design crossed the English Channel and carried out the Invasion of Normandy, one of the more important events in recent history. Many of the soldiers were so sick from choppy seas that leaving the boats and walking or running into German gunfire seemed like a good idea. The invasion was originally planned for the 45h of June, but a very precise weather forecast told the Supreme Commander, General Eisenhower, to wait until the next day. The forecast for the 6th of June, integrated with the logistical features of the…
gregladen | October 31, 2012Earlier this year a paper was published in the journal Nature in which a team of scientists looked at changes in storm surge potential under conditions of global warming, and they used the New York City area in their modeling. Combined with resent research adding to the growing body of data and studies that show increased storminess with global warming, this research suggests that the increased possibility of a hurricane causing a storm surge that would actually flood the subways in Manhattan is not only possible, but pretty likely to happen in the near future. Perhaps as soon as ....…
gregladen | December 19, 2011As you know, I've shifted some of the topics I have discussed on this blog over to The X Blog. However, some topics can very reasonably go on both. One of these is how we communicate, and argue, and sometimes make progress in this crazy, zany place we call The Blogsophere. Also, as an Anthropologist, I see topics related to gender, sexism, feminism and related topics as fully at home here, as well as at The X Blog. So, I just completed a series of posts over there which I'm sure will be of interest to those of you who tend to hand out here and might not otherwise notice. I hope you visit…
gregladen | May 25, 2011People are asking me: Is the recent spate of tornadoes caused by global warming? The usual answer to that question is that you can't answer the question because a tornado is not caused by climate ... it is cause by weather ... and global warming (which is real, and which is cause by humans) is climate change.
However, that is not really the best answer to the question. Ultimately, I want to propose an analogy for how to think about this question, but first, a stab at a good answer, which if modified could probably be improved:
Question: Is Anthropogenic Global Warming the cause of the…
gregladen | April 28, 2011Jeff Masters' WunderBlog is a key source of information on any current weather events:
A stunning tornado outbreak of incredible violence has left at least 202 dead across the Eastern U.S.; injuries probably number over a thousand, with 600 injured in the town of Tuscaloosa alone. The tornadoes carved huge swaths of damage, completely flattening large sections of many towns, and damage from the storms is likely to be the greatest in history for any tornado outbreak. Hardest hit was Alabama, with at least 149 dead...
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gregladen | April 18, 2011Dozens of people died in tornadoes in the US over the last couple of days, and most of those deaths were preventable. The truth is, most of those killed died because of a decision they made, so their death is to some extent their fault. But, for good reason, no one wants to blame the victim, so we see very little discussion about how a death spree like this happened over the weekend could have bee avoided. Also, almost every single feature of avoiding similar deaths in the future touches on a difficult political issue or points to a costly solution. Therefore, those involved and those…
gregladen | April 16, 2011Two reposts for your edification:
Tornadoes in Perspective
With all the interest in tornadoes, I thought it would be helpful to provide some contextual data (focusing on US tornadoes).
Damaged houses along Grace St. in St. Peter. (Photo courtesy of St. Peter Kiwanis) One thing that has to be said is that tornadoes are very powerful, but very small and short lived meteorological phenomena. They are like bullets being fired from cheap handguns by incompetent shooters. There are many stories of two gang bangers aiming their rods at each other at short distance, emptying them out, and…
gregladen | April 15, 2011Huxley and I went to Target to look at weather radios and found out that they don't carry them. But the three Target employees that were gathered near the cameras and electronics with whom we inquired were interested to know why we were looking for one.
"You're about the tenth person today who has asked about weather radios. What gives?"
Apparently they missed Minnesota's National Tornado Appreciation Week, which was yesterday1. And, they had missed the news that we were expecting a bad year for tornadoes.
Anyway, Target does not carry weather radios. I didn't really care, because I had…
gregladen | June 18, 2010This is as close as one can get:
BTW, I believe it is recommended to NOT hide from a tornado in your car.
Here's some context:
Please ignore the reporter's geographical references. They are quite muddled. The storm did not come from Iowa, and Wadena is not in what most people would call "Northwestern Minnesota."
gregladen | May 21, 2010When I was first in the Ituri Forest, I Noticed there were many kinds of plantains grown in the gardens there They varied by size and shape. One version seemed to have numerous black spots on the outside. When asking what it was called, I found its name was the same as the variety without the black spots. Eventually, someone realized that I was asking the wrong question, and gave me the explanation I was unknowingly looking for: "The ones with the black spots were the ones at a certain ripening stage during a storm in which rocks made of water in the form of what you call ice cream, sort…
gregladen | March 23, 2009This picture, from a current (as of this writing) accuweather forecast page, is an excellent illustration of what happens here in the upper Midwest the spring.
The overall pattern of movement of air masses at the continental scale is west to east, with extra moist and extra warm air secondarily moving north from the Gulf of Mexico, and cool and usually dry air coming form the Northwest (not shown here but note the "blizzard" part) and with dry Pacific/Rocky Mountain air coming from the west. The main energy flow to keep an eye on is that coming from the Gulf.
There is a rule of thumb you can…