illconsidered | September 9, 2008Over on my latest entry in the "How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic" guide, a commenter has taken issue with this passage:
Discerning a trend from noisy data is one of the most basic processes in scientifc research, so even though this argument has a naive appeal to the majority of us with no statistical training, you can be sure that any scientifically trained individual trying to make a case for cooling out of this graph is not being intellectually honest. Please consider any source of this argument as very unreliable, either by being very uninformed about basic scientific processes, or very…
illconsidered | September 8, 2008This is just one of dozens of responses to common climate change denial arguments, which can all be found at How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic.Objection:
Temperatures plummeted over the last year (2007-2008). If you look at this data from the Met Office Hadley Centre you can clearly see that in one year alone global temperatures dropped .6oC, an amount equal to the entire warming over the 20th century claimed by the IPCC.
(click graph for a larger image in a new window)
Answer:
This argument represents a fundamental misunderstanding of the difference between weather and climate. Climate…
illconsidered | September 8, 2008 Sipping from the internet firehose...This weekly posting is brought to you courtesy of H.E.Taylor. Happy reading, I hope you enjoy this week's Global Warming news roundup(skip to bottom) Information overload is pattern recognition September 7, 2008 Top Stories:Pfeffer, Mann, Elsner, Geoengineering, Garnaut, Monsoon Floods Melting Arctic, Northwest Passage, Markham, Permafrost, Jasons, Late Comments Food Crisis, Food vs. Biofuel, Food Production Hurricanes, Ike, Hanna, Gustav, Glaciers, Sea Levels, Aerosols Impacts, Forests, Corals, Wildfires, Floods & Droughts Mitigation,…
illconsidered | September 7, 2008Eli Rabett reports that Brian Schmidt reports that Inel reports a fake climate conference phishing scam.
Just thought I should report that!
How much money could a scammer get from that!? Hardly the same universal appeal as your typical "Nigerian banker wants to share $35 million with you" scam.
Oh well, just don't sign up.
illconsidered | September 5, 2008As if this and this weren't enough, below we have McCain himself applying the "Palin lives near Russia" litmus test for foreign policy experience.
Around minute 2:30:
GIBSON: Can you honestly say you feel confident having someone who hasn't traveled outside the United States until last year, dealing with an insurgent Russia, with an Iran with nuclear ambitions, with an unstable Pakistan, not to mention the war on terror?
MCCAIN: Sure. And one of the key elements of America's national security requirements are energy. She understands the energy issues better than anybody I know in Washington…
illconsidered | September 4, 2008How cool is this?
I found that via yesterday's APOD.
It is video taken by Deep Impact looking back from 50 million km (31 million miles) away in space.
illconsidered | September 3, 2008I was just kidding about that Sarah Palin-osmosis-experience crack...but apparently Frank Gaffney at TownHall.com takes it all seriously!
As that state's governor, Sarah Palin would know more by osmosis - if nothing else - about the necessity for U.S. anti-missile systems than either Messrs. Obama or Biden.
(h/t to Science Avenger from the comments]
illconsidered | September 3, 2008Just as an addendum to this post, I wanted to point out that Real Climate has a discussion of the paper in question[PDF].
The authors include not only Mike Mann, but also Bradley and Hughes, so we have the whole infamous MBH cabal in one place again! Let the mud-slinging begin!
But some useful stuff from RC's post includes noting the substantial increase in the number of proxy data sources:
1209 back to 1800; 460 back to 1600; 59 back to 1000 AD; 36 back to 500 AD and 19 back to 1 BC (all data and code is available here). This is compared with 400 or so in MBH99, of which only 14 went back…
illconsidered | September 3, 2008There has been lots of discussion of this year's arctic sea ice extent. Last year was a shocking 23% lower record breaker. That's 23% lower than the previous record, for which one had to go all the way back to....2005! That's not 23% below the 1979-2001 average, but 23% below the lowest previous measurement! 2005, aside from being the previous record, was also remarkable for being the fourth consecutive year that fell below the trend line. (With a steady decline in noisy data one would expect equal probablities of data points falling above the trend line as below.)
Here is a graph made…
illconsidered | September 2, 2008Okay, when I first heard this about McCain's VP pick, Sarah Palin:
I figured it was just an unscripted blunder by a marginal participant. But now I see this:
After I stopped laughing, I realized it is actually going to be one of their wingnut talking points. Sarah Palin knows about foreign policy because she lives close to Russia! Could you be any more ridiculous?
Now excuse me, I am going to go put a few particle physics texts under my pillow so I can solve the mystery of Dark Matter in the morning....
[h/t to Dispatches from the Culture War]
illconsidered | September 2, 2008Mann et al. has a new paper out that again reconfirms that the MWP was not as pronounced or as high a warming period as today's climate changes are bringing.
This is no longer surprising and is in close agreement with all other NH reconstructions that have been done, and all global reconstructions as well.
What is different about this one is that the reliance on tree-rings, and therefore the uncertainties and difficulties they impose, has been removed by using alternative sources of proxy data including marine and lake sediment cores, ice cores, and coral cores.
The authors write:
Our…
illconsidered | September 1, 2008 Sipping from the internet firehose...This weekly posting is brought to you courtesy of H.E.Taylor. Happy reading, I hope you enjoy this week's Global Warming news roundupskip to bottom Top Stories:Accra Conference, Bihar Floods, Methane Burp?, Permafrost Melting Arctic, Polar Bears, Arctic Geopolitics, Grumbine, World Bank Food Crisis, Food Production Hurricanes, GHGs, Paleoclimate, Glaciers, Sea Levels, Satellites Impacts, Forests, Corals, Wildfires, Floods & Droughts Mitigation, Transportation, Buildings, Sequestration, Geoengineering, Adaptation Journals, Misc. Science, Hansen…
illconsidered | August 30, 2008Hurricane Gustav is taking aim at the coast of Louisiana. Jeff Masters at Weather Underground is the goto place for the details of this storm.
If I am reading it all right, Gustav will be a major hurricane when it strikes the Gulf coast, possibly a category 4, and it may well strike New Orleans. The next 48 hours will reveal its plans.
illconsidered | August 26, 2008Yesterday was the 200th edition of "Another week of GW News", and close to the 50th edition posted here on A Few Things Ill Considered.
Please join me in thanking H.E.Taylor for this remarkable effort that provides such a wonderful service to all of us interested in the issue of anthropogenic global warming.
Thanks, HET! I don't know how you do it, but keep it coming! : )
illconsidered | August 25, 2008 Sipping from the internet firehose...This weekly posting is brought to you courtesy of H.E.Taylor. Happy reading, I hope you enjoy this week's Global Warming news roundup(skip to bottom) August 24, 2008 Top Stories:Ghana, Melting Arctic, Polar Bears, Arctic Geopolitics, Grumbine, World Water Week Food Crisis, Food vs. Biofuel, Food Production Hurricanes, GHGs, Temperatures, Paleoclimate, ENSO, Glaciers, Sea Levels, Satellites Impacts, Forests, Wildfires, Floods & Droughts Mitigation, Transportation, Sequestration, Geoengineering, Adaptation Journals, Misc. Science, Hanson, Pielke…
illconsidered | August 22, 2008Roger Pielke Jr has another post promoting the whole Hockey Stick schtick. My "sceptic guide" entry on that is still here, and I don't have much more to say about it still to this day.
But as for the meta discussion...
I think it is self-serving and a real disservice to humanity for Roger to still be fanning the flames on this issue, but it certainly seems he has found the audience and following he must have been seeking if one is to judge be the plethora of "me too" comments he has received. I don't have much more to observe than that, but Michael Tobis has a more lengthy and well thought…
illconsidered | August 21, 2008From NASA JPL's Global Climate Change website, here is a very cool map of sea level rise around the world.
Despite what one might think at first, sea level, and sea level rise, is not uniform around the world.
Local sea level is a surprisingly complicated function of wind, currents and temperature and globally sea levels can vary by up to 2 metres. The largest factor is the temperature in the local water column, thermal expansion from warming is the greatest contrubutor to sea level changes. Measuring sea level rise can be even more difficult due to the masking or amplifying effects of land…
illconsidered | August 21, 2008Yesterday's APOD has a very cool multiple exposure picture of the moon passing through the earth's shadow, partially that is. It really gives a impressive sense of earth's shadow, even more than the usual total eclipse photos.
illconsidered | August 20, 2008So Bill Maher is interviewing a sitting US Senator about evolution. This Senator is not so sure about evolution ("the scientific communty is a little divided on that") and Maher is a little sceptical that intelligent people could actually believe in a talking snake:
You're a Senator. You are one of the very few people are really running this country. It worries me that people are running my country, who think, who believe in a talking snake.
And the Senator's defense?
"You don't have to pass an IQ test to be in the senate"
No kidding you don't!