Last year, we watched as four rapidly intensifying typhoons in a row hit the Philippines in the space of a few months. Something was just up with the ocean-atmosphere system in that particular area, and it was a deadly combination.
With the Pilbara region of Western Australia, the situation isn't nearly so dire. However, just after getting slammed by a rapidly intensifying George yesterday, it now appears that Pilbara will soon be hit by a steadily intensifying Cyclone Jacob--and in almost the same spot that just experienced George.
How strong will Jacob be at landfall? The current prediction from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is for slow but steady intensification up to Category 2. But the intensification of George was rather dramatically underpredicted by JTWC last time....
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Perth TCWC has forecasted landfall with 90 kt 10-min winds and 934 hpa MSLP. Using the 1/0.9 conversion, about 100 kts, or SS category 3. If you look at the cimiss shear map (hopefully they won't suffer another 'no data for winds' problem when this posts) you can see Jacob's forecast track brings it through an area of much lower shear than it developed in. In addition, SSTs exceed 30 C, and warm water is deep , except for one shallow patch it must track across - all much as for George, unless George caused significant upwelling of cold water that does not yet show on those maps. It now looks like it may come in somewhat west of the area affected by George - so a double-whammy is less likely.
Jacab has been rapidly weakening. The BOM's 0648 utc 10/03 technical advice blames unfavorable stratocumulus, but cold upwelling from Geroge could play a role. I suppose it could recover - but the BOM is now forecasting a much weakker landfall.