hurricanes
cmooney | August 26, 2006
Above is the latest water vapor image for Ernesto, which now has a central pressure that's dropped to 997 mb and sustained winds that are nearing 60 mph. In short, it looks like this is going to be a Category 1 hurricane soon, our first of the season. And the projected track continues to look scary. It will be beyond cruel if, around the time of the Tuesday anniversary of Katrina, New Orleans has to evacuate again. But that's within the range of possiblities.
And then there's Cat 5 Hurricane Ioke, shown above well to the west of Hawaii. This is shaping up to be one hell of a storm. Let me…
cmooney | August 25, 2006
It's official, we have our fifth storm of the season. The NHC is now projecting that it will reach hurricane strength within days. And here's the part of the forecast that's disturbing:
THE INTENSITY FORECAST.....CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HR...WITH SOMEWHAT FASTER STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AT 96 AND 120 HR. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS AND SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AFTER 96 HR...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO…
cmooney | August 25, 2006
As you can see from the image above, courtesy of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, we've got a Cat 5 right now in the Pacific. But it isn't a typhoon, because it didn't form in the western North Pacific. Neither did it form in the eastern North Pacific (the "I' storm from that basin this year is Ileana). Rather, Wikipedia has this to say about Ioke: "It is the first tropical storm to form in the Central Pacific since 2002...Overnight between August 24 and August 25, Ioke strengthened into a Category 5 storm, the first storm with a name from the Central Pacific list to reach that intensity."…
cmooney | August 24, 2006
Jeff Masters reports that we've got another storm to pay attention to, and this one looks very dangerous, although it is not officially named Ernesto yet. In the satellite image above, what we're talking about is the area of very thick clouds just off the coast of northeastern South America. The hurricane center should have something soon, and we will learn whether or not this disturbance has already reached tropical storm strength. Stand by....
cmooney | August 22, 2006Let the tasteless jokes begin...the NHC expects this one to develop slowly but they've adjusted the track more to the west. Still no indication that Debby will be hitting land, but she certainly does have the chance to become our first hurricane of the year in the North Atlantic.
Meanwhile, when it comes to fun with hurricanes, I note this letter in the Pensacola News Journal:
Let's try bombing storms
Some years back I read a novel which told the story of an English sea captain who, with his daughter and crew, were sailing to Australia. At one point a waterspout was in the ship's path so the…
cmooney | August 21, 2006We now have Tropical Depression 4 (perhaps soon to be Tropical Storm Debby) just off the African Coast. First forecast discussion here. Satellite here. Jeff Masters thinks this one will stay over the ocean; apparently waves that develop this early almost always do. More soon....for now, hold off on the "Debby Does the Atlantic" jokes....
cmooney | August 17, 2006We often forget who really did in New Orleans: The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, with its ridiculous projects like the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet ("Mr. Go"), which quite literally welcomed storm surges into the city. But you won't forget after reading Michael Grunwald's great feature in the latest New Republic. You need a subscription or something, but believe me, it's worth it. The article puts me in mind of lyrics by Mike West, a fantastic New Orleans singer songwriter whom I now suspect is displaced, in a song called "Corps of Engineers":
there's been a lot of talkabout widening the…
cmooney | August 16, 2006There's a widespread notion that hurricane basins across the world take turns having active and inactive years. It's epitomized, for example, in this 2005 NOAA press release anticipating a slow season for the East Pacific:
"There tends to be a seesaw affect between the East Pacific and North Atlantic hurricane seasons," said Jim Laver, director, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Md. "When there is above normal seasonal activity in the Atlantic there tends to be below normal seasonal activity in the Pacific. This has been especially true since 1995. Six of the last ten East…
cmooney | August 5, 2006Well, 15.9 actually, 7.9 of them hurricanes and 3.5 of them intense hurricanes (Cat 3, 4, 5). See here (PDF). We can now do a comparison with the latest Klotzbach-Gray forecast, which is slighly lower: 15 storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes. Really, the two aren't that far apart.
What's most interesting perhaps is that while the Klotzbach-Gray forecast has clearly come down from numbers that were previously higher (i.e., 17, 9, and 5), the Saunders forecast has fluctuated up and down slightly but with no particular trend. In June, for example, Saunders forecast just 13.9 storms, so…
cmooney | August 4, 2006One of the best known seasonal hurricane forecasts comes out of Colorado State University courtesy of William Gray (although Gray's student Phil Klotzbach is now lead author of the forecast). Another one comes out of the University College-London Benfield Hazard Research Center courtesy of Mark Saunders and Adam Lea. Both groups update their forecasts monthly; the August Klotzbach-Gray forecast is now out and the August Saunders-Lea forecast will be out tomorrow (I think). So let's see what the first group says...
Gray and Klotzbach are no longer calling for 17 tropical cyclones in the North…
cmooney | August 3, 2006Yesterday Jeff Masters had some amusing comments about previous tropical cyclones that have been named Chris:
There were storms named Chris in 1982, 1988, 1994, and 2000. Each time, Chris has been an insignificant storm that either never made it to hurricane strength, or in one case, barely made it to hurricane strength but stayed out to sea and never had a nice photogenic appearance. However, the 2000 incarnation of Chris did set a record--shortest amount of time as a tropical storm. Chris in 2000 lasted just one advisory before wind shear tore it apart. I've happily needled my friend Dr.…
cmooney | August 2, 2006The big story about Tropical Storm Chris, at least from a U.S.-centric perspective, is that it could wind up hitting Florida or intensifying in the Gulf of Mexico, and then going God knows where. AccuWeather put that plainly with its latest report:
Those residing in South Florida and the Keys need to monitor the storm's approach carefully. There is a good chance that Chris will be churning through the Straits of Florida over the weekend and could bring strong winds and some heavy rainfall. Chris should then move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week. It is possible Chris' eventual…
cmooney | August 2, 2006I wake up this morning, rub the grog out of my eyes, and find that this storm is still stronger and better organized. The winds are up to nearly 65 mph, the pressure down to 1001 mb. You can even see what looks kinda like the beginning of an eye in the satellite imagery. In short, just a little more strengthening and we're going to have a hurricane on our hands, perhaps as early as later today.
The NHC, meanwhile, keeps upping the predicted intensities. Now they've got Chris up to 70 kt within 4-5 days. (Knots to mph conversion here.) What's most troubling is the possibility that around that…
cmooney | August 1, 2006This storm is intensifying more than expected. Winds are at 60 mph already. Meanwhile--and I know it's dangerous to do this, but I will do so anyway--there's certainly a distinct possiblity that this one could end up in the Gulf. Of course, uncertainties in the long range forecast are massive.
P.S.: For more on this storm, check out this great website from the University of Wisconsin...
P.P.S.: Just noticed that the NHC's forecast wind speeds now take Chris up to 65 knots over the 72 hour period. If that's right--a big if--then this will be our season's first hurricane....
cmooney | August 1, 2006I am not a forecaster. In fact, the forecasters will be putting out their August outlooks during the next couple of days, and I'll report what they say here. But in the meantime, with Tropical Storm Chris in the Caribbean, let's look at some statistics that will help set whatever happens this month in context.
As everyone remembers, July 2005 was an extremely busy month in the North Atlantic by historical standards. We had a Category 5 storm, for Christ's sakes, in Emily (PDF); and Dennis hit the U.S. as a Category 3 (PDF). Before August had even begun, we had seen 7 total storms and were up…
cmooney | August 1, 2006My namesake tropical cyclone is kicking it east of the Leeward Islands, having developed from a much-watched tropical wave in the past 24 hours, and may be heading towards Puerto Rico. But the system might not last long; Jeff Masters already puts it this way:
Chris could become a hurricane late in the week, but I put the chances of this at 10%. Dissipation is a more likely scenario, since there is so much wind shear around. The most likely scenario of all is that Chris will remain a tropical storm over the next five days.
But Stacy Stewart, the lead forecaster at the National Hurricane…
cmooney | July 24, 2006Recently Jeff Masters noted of Hurricane Daniel--which attained Cat 4 strength over the East Pacific recently--that it was his "favorite type of hurricane--a huge, spectacular Category 4 (almost 5) storm that is no threat to land." Actually, albeit in a weakened state, Daniel may hit Hawaii, so perhaps it's a threat after all. Still, as I contemplate the next storm in the North Atlantic--which will either be named Tropical Storm Chris or Hurricane Chris--I find myself feeling pretty much the same way.
On the one hand, I don't want my namesake hurricane to be totally wimpy. On the other, I…
cmooney | July 19, 2006Ha! Now those linguists and etymologists at the National Hurricane Center are backtracking! To wit:
REGARDING THE PRONUNCIATION OF BERYL...A REVIEW OF SEVERAL DICTIONARIES SHOWS THAT BOTH BER'-IL AND BURL ARE ACCEPTED PRONUNCIATIONS...AND IN FACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DIRECTIVE SPECIFIES THE FORMER...TWO SYLLABLE...PRONUNCIATION. THE ONLY BERYL I PERSONALLY KNOW ALSO PRONOUNCES IT BER'-IL. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY CONFUSION.
This is James Franklin writing; forecaster Stacy Stewart is the one who told us it was pronounced like "Berle." I wonder if the forecasters are as divided over the…
cmooney | July 19, 2006In a recent post, before we officially had Tropical Storm Beryl, I wrote that I could "hardly Beryl the suspense." Alas, this pun turns on "Beryl" being pronounced like "barrel." But now comes NHC forecaster Stacy Stewart telling me I'm wrong:
THE LAST RECON PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF BERYL THIS MORNING INDICATED THE PRESSURE HAD DROPPED ANOTHER MILLIBAR DOWN TO 1004 MB. FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB WERE 52 KT IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT IN CONVECTION...AND THAT IS THE JUSTIFICATION FOR INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 40 KT. ALSO...THE CORRECT PRONUNCIATION OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS BERLE... LIKE…
cmooney | July 18, 2006Well, we appear to have a second TC for this season--though it has not yet been officially named Beryl. Right now it's just Tropical Depression TWO. The storm is hanging out off the coast of the Carolinas, and a tropical storm watch has been issued. Jeff Masters is tracking this proto-Beryl, which he expects to remain at sea. Meanwhile, the first National Hurricane Center forecast discussion contains this important section:
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TRICKY. THE SHIPS MODEL ONLY BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO ABOUT 45 KT IN 48 HOURS. HOWEVER... THIS CONSERVATIVE INTENSITY FORECAST APPEARS…