hurricanes
cmooney | January 2, 2008
Well, welcome back everyone...I'm in the saddle blogging for the moment, and later today, Sheril and I are going to be hanging out here in LA together. We'll try to post a picture or something.
In the meantime, though, I wanted to post a link to a fun "storm pundit" item I did for the Daily Green recently, entitled the "Most Superlative Storms of 2007." I went through the year's many hurricanes and identified the following: Most Deadly, Most Intense, Most Surprising, Hardest to Forecast, Wettest, and Most Political.
Follow the links to see which storms I picked for each category. And here's…
sheril | December 17, 2007Just one month ago, Cyclone Sidr - one of the fiercest cyclones to hit Bangladesh in the last 131 years - slammed the country's southern and southwestern regions. At least 3,300 people lost there lives and millions were left homeless. The United Nations estimates that 8.7 million people were affected by the storm and many remain dependent on food handouts and aid. While total pledges have reached 545 million dollars, the government has appealed for at least 2.2 billion.
According to World Bank Vice President for South Asia Praful C. Patel:More is needed, more is deserved by Bangladesh in…
cmooney | December 12, 2007
Well well well. 15 named storms this year after all. The last (um, we think) is in the Caribbean right now, spinning way past the season's official endpoint. Its name is Olga. It started out subtropical, but has since become a fully tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 50 knots at its apparent peak (although the storm has since weakened).
But any way you slice it, it's an anomaly to have a storm like Olga so late in the year. As I put it in my latest "Storm Pundit" item: "It was the most average of hurricane seasons, and the most unpredictable of hurricane seasons."
Indeed,…
cmooney | November 30, 2007
Today is officially the last day of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season. Not that we can't have a storm after November 30...but it becomes less and less likely.
And how do we summarize the year? Well, less active than expected, especially when it comes to the frequency of the most intense storms. That's two years in a row the forecasts have overshot in this respect.
Anyways, over at the Daily Green I now have a more in-depth post-mortem on the season. Some highlights:
The relative quietude of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season seems particularly mystifying in light of the fact that we saw…
sheril | November 28, 2007
Dark settles on Majher Char, a 3x2 km long island in the middle of the Ballashar River in the Bay of Bengal. Last week, this was the scene of death and utter destruction when Cyclone Sidr came ashore, carrying in it's wake a 5 meter wall of water that washed over this island of 1800 inhabitants. Boats carrying relief goods are plying the river.
- Jonathan Munshi
Relief operations are underway throughout Bangladesh even as the story fades from headlines. Tens of thousands await food, water, and medicine as aid filters into the region. The storm killed about 3,500 people, left thousands…
cmooney | November 20, 2007From Baptist Press:
DHAKA, Bangladesh (BP)--In the hours before Cyclone Sidr reached the coastal areas of Bangladesh, Southern Baptists and other Christians began praying -- aware that the Category 4 storm potentially could usher hundreds of thousands into an eternity without Jesus.
...
"Last night a lot of people died and entered an eternity of suffering," Neely said. "Almost none of them has heard a Christian testimony or biblical explanation of who Christ really is. They have never heard the truth about who God really is, who they are in His sight or what God's plan is to save us from our…
sheril | November 19, 2007Cyclone Sidr has passed, but there is no calm after the storm. The death toll - now reported over 3,000 - continues to rise as we're hearing of devastation throughout the region. I've been touched by readers emails from Bangladesh and elsewhere, sharing experiences and firsthand accounts of what's happening. One individual in the area, Jonathan Munshi, has been following The Intersection and reporting his observations on the ground. Today Jon sent us these photographs taken at Baniashanta across from the port city, Mongla - one of the areas hit hard by Sidr.
The village fared relatively…
cmooney | November 18, 2007Now some estimates suggest the death toll from Sidr may reach 10,000. But how is it possible for a cyclone to unleash destruction on such a scale?
To get a better grasp, one need only look at sea surface temperature anomalies in the Bay of Bengal before and after this storm's passage. These images are courtesy of Remote Sensing Systems.
On November 11, when Sidr was spinning up off the Andaman Islands, the Bay of Bengal was characterized by pretty much uniform warm anomalies, shown in red:
But by November 15, as the storm passed by, the Bay of Bengal had become predominantly characterized by…
cmooney | November 17, 2007Jeff Masters doesn't think Sidr will turn out to have killed as many as the 1998 storm that caused some 11,000 fatalities (or more) in Nicaragua and Honduras. But the Times of London is reporting that the death toll from Sidr may rise as high as 8,000. Whatever the case, this is, just as we feared, a major humanitarian disaster. The Times of London gives a list of links for charitable donations, which we encourage you to follow. And I'm reposting Sheril's much-watched YouTube video, which seems to be inspiring people to give aid:
cmooney | November 16, 2007Via AlertNet, I just saw this missive from the Belgian relief group CARE, which is already on the ground in Bangladesh but realizes the magnitude of the problem is even bigger than expected. This is the best sense I've been able to get yet of conditions where the storm struck, so I'm reproducing in full:
Geneva, November 16, 2007--With Bangladesh reeling in the aftermath of Cyclone Sidr, CARE emergency teams are determining where their relief equipment and supplies can be most effective. CARE responded immediately after the super cyclone struck Bangladesh's coast by moving equipment into the…
cmooney | November 16, 2007Folks, Sheril is busy today and can't post, but for the first time we have tried videoblogging--and what she has to say couldn't be on a more urgent subject, the devastation caused by Cyclone Sidr. Please watch and I hope you're as inspired as I am by her words:
The death toll from Sidr is up to 600 and, unfortunately, still seems to be rising. And of course that doesn't include injured, missing, displaced, newly homeless...Jeff Masters has more on the unfolding news of the disaster--including an amazing graphic depicting the population densities of the areas along the storm's path--and so…
cmooney | November 16, 2007I don't like that if you look at news reports over the past three hours or so, we find differing--but possibly escalating--reports of the casualties in Bangladesh. The highest estimate I've seen yet comes from Reuters Canada: "killed more than 500 people in Bangladesh and left thousands injured or missing." News is still rolling in, though. I don't think we really have any idea yet how bad it was.
Now is the time to think about humanitarian donations--the International Federation of Red Cross & Red Crescent Societies is a good start.
sheril | November 15, 2007It's about time. It's past time. Bay of Bengal cyclones have previously killed tens or even hundreds of thousands from storm surges and flooding. While those of us watching Sidr develop have been sounding alarm, the U.S. media has all but ignored an impending tragedy.
Today the storm made landfall and they've finally noticed. While Chris and I don't understand why it took so long to make top headlines, we're thankful that collective American attention is now focused intently on this catastrophic storm hitting the most vulnerable place on earth.
Now that here in the U.S. we're being…
cmooney | November 15, 2007
It seems 300 fishing boats and 1000 people are already missing in the storm. However, there's good news, too, according to Jeff Masters: The landfall point is a mangrove forest, not very populous. Still, the whole area has to expect a Katrina like storm surge upwards of 20 feet in some places. To quote Masters:
The coast in western Bangladesh has the Sundarbans Forest, the world's largest forest of mangrove trees. This region is the least populated coastal area in the country, and has been part of a major reforestation effort in recent years. The portion of coast likely to receive the…
cmooney | November 15, 2007
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center finally gave in and rated the storm at 135 knots--or 155 mile per hour winds. This is the cutoff for Category 5. There may be some weakening by landfall, but what we're expecting is a borderline Cat 4/Cat 5 striking along the path shown above. You've gotta figure the storm surge is going to be more than 20 feet. There are supposed to be vertical evacuations in Bangladesh, but I just don't know what's happening on the ground....
cmooney | November 14, 2007Another advisory--and still at 130 knots. Though again, I suspect Sidr is really stronger. In any event, there is less and less chance of significant weakening before landfall. Sigh.
sheril | November 14, 2007On August 28, 2005, I had a sinking feeling in my stomach. Like so many, I felt helpless understanding the devastation that would ensue in New Orleans and along the Gulf Coast from Hurricane Katrina. Just over two years later, I have that same feeling.
Because Bangladesh is one of the low-laying regions most at risk from sea level rise, as a marine biologist I'm all too familiar with how vulnerable it is to flooding and storm surges. It's also one of the most densely populated countries and - as Chris has expressed - I fear this storm may be a worst case scenario. It's my sincere hope…
cmooney | November 14, 2007Okay, it is time to get alarmist here. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center just released its latest forecast, and this storm still hasn't weakened as has been so endlessly predicted. Instead, it is still a strong Category 4--130 knot winds, or almost 150 miles per hour--according to JTWC. And frankly, the automated Advanced Dvorak Technique says the storm is a Category 5 and still intensifying.
This is a nightmare unfolding. The official landfall prediction from JTWC--like we trust them--is 115 knots, or weak Category 4. This is a storm that needs to be evacuated from, but I have no idea whether…
cmooney | November 14, 2007
Beautiful and deadly--that's how it always is with hurricanes. And so it is with Cyclone Sidr, depicted in this satellite picture courtesy of NASA. This storm has had a lot of cloud in its eye lately, but don't let that fool you. Automated estimates suggest it may now be a Category 5...
cmooney | November 14, 2007
We have a Category 4 cyclone barreling down on what is possibly the most vulnerable place in the world for such a storm. So I just visited CNN.com. No mention of it whatsoever on the front page. Stunning--but at the same time, not unexpected, no?
Incidentally, my latest take on Cyclone Sidr is now up at the Daily Green. At this point, it's all about how high the storm surge will be...
UPDATE: Welcome Andrew Sullivan readers...Hurricane expert Jeff Masters has a more detailed discussion of the possible disaster unfolding. And Dan Shapley of the Daily Green sets this storm in the broader…