Was bird flu better in 2007 versus 2006?

what did you expect, when 2007 started ?
I think, it's better than expected.
"looked much like 2006" sounds like "stable" to me ;-)

weren't you crying last year, when 2006 was worse
than 2005 ?
I'd be very content, if 2008 were like 2007.
Or 2006.

revere,

I entirely agree with your thinking on this. Also, I'd apply the same logic of 'noise' to the global data as well. Who knows what is happening in Nigeria and other African countries.

From 2003 onwards cases were mostly seen first in Vietnam and Thailand. Sure these are 'developing countries' but they are vastly different in their stages of development both between themselves and more crucially with Nigeria and other African states. Who knows how widespread it is on that continent. I'm no statistician but the margin of error globally is so big that I don't see much difference between 115 cases vs 86 cases at all.

Hey, Revere, what the heck is going on in India, especially in West Bengal? There are reports of over 2000 people with fevers at ground zero of the bird flu problems there, along with medical inadequacies and government officials acting squirrelly (no offense to squirrels intended). Polyphony

anon: I didn't know what to expect (I know this bothers you). Now that we've seen it is my opinion that nothing much has changed. That doesn't mean "stable." It is clearly not stable. It means we don't see change in epidemiological behavior.

polyphony: I'll adopt my usual stance on India: we'll have to wait and see. It's flu season so when you start looking for cases and ruling out H5N1 you will find them -- in a country the size of India by the tens of thousands. Are there H5N1 hidden in that haystack? We'll have to see if any are found. At this point there is no way to know except to say that when there is a poultry outbreak like this in a setting of this nature you see lots and lots of people with fevers being listed as suspect cases (appropriately). That's the usual but it is always alarming because it could be the start of something, too. Let's get some more info.

Susan: Yes, I agree with all you have said.

With deep respect for Revere and all those who dedicate their lives to protecting us for illness; I humbly request you wake up. Niman is talking about 15 people in Indonesia with symptoms of bird flu. Where in the hell are you Randy? Please say something. You are one of the few who understand how desperate the situation is.
In relation to India I have not words to describe how dangerous the situation is. It is totally impossible to cull birds now. You have to be an idiot to think it is possible to solve the problem now by culling birds.
Revere, I am not a troll. I deeply respect your website. But please wake up. All hell is breaking loose, and live will be lost.
If you want to ban me from you site, it is ok with me. I live in Colombia. The people here look at me like I am crazy if I speak about bird flu. They think I must be a doctor for animals or something. But if bird flu hits Colombia, I will drop on my knees and ask for mercy, because here there are millions with inadequate food, with weak immune systems, and people who cannot read. They are packed like sardines in horrible poverty on hillsides in the cities. I see the children playing in total innocence, and I fear for their lives. Please understand I do not want to damage this site. But I fear many of these lovely children may die if a pandemic hits.
Revere, I know for sure you will not celebrate seeing me post here; and you are correct. I am a little crazy, as you know. But please keep an open mind to what Niman is saying.
A critical mass is forming, and death is now very near us all.
To Randy: You are very special. When the shit hits the fan here in Colombia, with these lovely children here in Colombia dying of bird flu, at least I will know someone was aware of the tragedy. I read your letter to the newspaper in Indonesia. May peace be with you always for your dedication.
This will probably be my last post here, so forgive me for any harm I have done. This bird flu virus cannot be stopped.

"Birds that spend the spring in central China at the Qinghai Lake reserve, or the summer in Siberia at Chany Lake, or Erhel or Uva Lakes in Mongolia, fly south to India in the winter."
Niman, today

But it's not predictable; I swear it's not. It's in the poultry and their handlers. They're spreading it. That's why we don't know where it's going or what it will be next time.

Got an oil can? Ask the guys who hired the squeaker. Maybe now WHO will release the RBD-area sequences and keep the originals on file?

herman: What do you want me to do? I've said what I think as honestly as I can. I have no reason to play down an outbreak if I think one is happening. On the contrary. Henry and I do things differently. He is doing what you want. So you should be happy. I am doing what I think is right as well. I can't and won't do it differently. Please get off my back.

Revere,
Please explain what you mean by this.
"we don't see change in epidemiological behavior."

Are you referring to CFR?
Are you referring to the fact that H5N1 continues to pick up new seasonal and regional polymorphic changes?
Are you referring to after the fact R0 changes that can be calculated?

Will it not be helpful to identify what epidemiological behavioral modification will be a "change"?

Let's not forget that Indonesia, Egypt, China, and VietNam have all probably learnt to throw tamiflu by the handfuls at anything that looks lke a duck and quacks like a duck..,

If 2007 looked better than 2006, it may be the nice cozy pharmaceutical blanket that is now thrown over any potential case.

Add to that the statistical obfuscation imbued by critically deficient health infrastructure in the less developed countries than our H5N1 mainstays. Thailand, Myanmar, Migeria, and even India don't have the ability to properly identify the presence of the virus if it should kill.

The number of countries with new confirmed human cases, and new poultry outbreaks is what indicates to me that nothing is getting any better at all.

Filter out all the deficiencies with the various rose colored glasses we can wear and sure, things look just peachy..,

Herman, Revere doesnt ban anyone unless you are posting up as more than one person or if you get out of line and you were warned. Dont do it again. He hasnt banned you else you wouldnt be up there now.

As for Revere's info from above the be aware I am more aware of the situation than most and I do defer to his judgement on many of these things. He is a little more pragmatic because he is in the business of stopping it. I am too but to a lesser degree because I would be more of the response to it if it happens. If you hear that I suddenly got busy and the "noise" was very loud somewhere else then you would know the poo had hit the rotary grinder.

I agree with his assessment of what is going on right now. It isnt looking good at all. We had fewer human cases and fatalities, but it might have been from the simple interventions and education that went on or that it wasnt hungry that day. What are we other than food for it? All sorts of revelations came out about this thing in 07. Umbrella shaped (never saw that one before), it sticks to walls, its in the dust and poop. Bumbling idiots throwing dead chickens into their drinking water, people eating dead birds, human to human transmission. The education we are all getting on viral evolution here and in other places is good.

In 08 we have seen the biggest outbreak in birds there has been so far and its regional from Egypt to Bangladesh. Yep, I am aware of the effects on children and what it would do if it even cuts it by 3/4ths of what it is now. Its not going to be a 5% event unless something dramatic happens when the trade off between infectious and high CFR's takes place, if at all. It could stay at the 83% level that its been banging away at for the last six months too. I dont know and neither do they. But they are trying hard. Cant ask for more than that.

Its all about assessments and I defer to Revere, Marissa, Grace-RN and others such as my Gang of 13 to get my medical info on this stuff. They are the first line of defense for it. Lets hope that it doesnt get to the second line which is where I reside in this pecking order. If it blows past or through us, the last line is the individual responsibility to take care of one's self and family. I dont see a lot of that going on. They are all waiting as they did in Katrina for the all encompassing government to take care of them. We have a massive bureaucracy to handle this kind of stuff and it still failed. It will fail more massively if this crap turns up on our shores. It wont be any different than anywhere else... just in degrees.

Re: India. Obviously there is a huge outbreak of H5N1 in poultry but that hasnt for the time being translated to high numbers of cases in humans. Revere is right. Wait and see. We have seen it before in Indon where it looks like its on a blowout and then...nothing. It has though breached a key position and that is the declaration of human to human. They DID throw the antiviral blanket which is Pandemic Level 4 stuff, BUT there was not any extension beyond those few H2H cases. It happened before in Indon even though they were really recalcitrant to admit it.

Nervous? Shit yeah. But I am also prepared with a hair trigger to respond. Herman one of the things that everyone has to understand is that if it comes in high numbers (anything past 8%) life as we know it would change dramatically. Some for the good, some for the bad. You are going to save only as many people as will listen, you will still lose some of those too. The others will be like sheep heading to the slaughter. The people who say "it" isnt coming are statistically wrong. If its not H5, something else will be hopping down the bunny trail soon. At least H5 kills you pretty much outright... Want to go of a lingering XDR-TB death? Not me bubba... I'll take the H5 or something that just cleans my clock. Be more pragmatic about this. We all are just one heartbeat away from death anyway. You might go from a blood clot just as easy. Just name your poison and I guarantee that something will come down the road and get you. Just dont think you are bulletproof as they do in the US in all walks of life.

Sure, prepare, prepare those that you can and that will. I have a hard and fast friend in my Pakistani's down the road now because of the preps. Both suspicious of the other when we first started. Now good friends of different faiths. But I am like Revere. I dont like what I am seeing with the numbers. If it were going away... it would be. Its not.

GR: Distribution of disease by person, place and time and transmissibility.

Revere,
Please, stop taking everything I say as a criticism. Please give me a break. I deeply respect what you are doing. I am a little crazy, and you know very well I am crazy. I apologize for all the pain I have caused you by my stupid comments.
You are doing the very best you can.
But please open up your mind to the possibility all hell has broken out in India and Indonesia, and that lives may soon be lost. You probably already know that.
You know as well as I we do not know shit about this virus, and that anti-virals are a joke.
But above all I want to sincerely thank you for providing us with a site where we can communicate in relation to this threat.
Revere, your education allows you to understand these medical issues much better than I. I am not criticizing you.
Thank you for all you have done all your life to protect the sick.
But please have mercy on me here in Colombia, if this bird flu pandemic hits. You cannot imagine how horrible the situation will become in seconds. But I promise you I will do everything I can to protect those lovely children I see here daily in the playground. Even if I have to be exposed the the virus and die as a result.
You have inspired me to think in terms of organizing the community. I promise you I will do what I can while I am still alive. If I become infected by bird flu and die, that is a risk I will take. I will do everything I can, based on you instruction, to protect the lives of the children here.
Randy, you surprised my by your fast response to my post.You cannot even understand how much respect I have for you. Please keep up the struggle. May peace be with you always.

Herman, What do you want Revere to do? Jump up and down and stamp his feet or something? He is providing a valuable service and lends some seasoned judgment to matters that I, for one, do not have the scientific background to evaluate properly. I also read Niman every day as I think he adds material not seen elsewhere. Revere has made it quite clear however that he would prefer not to involve Niman's approach to the issue on this list. That is his perogative as it is Revere's list and I think that should be respected. Hysteria does little beyond clouding judgment. H5 has at least the potential to be a deadly serious threat and Revere is approaching it in a measured way. Allow him the courtesy of doing that.

Carl,
I am not hysterical. I am not trying to push Niman's ideas down your throat.
What I am about to tell you comes from me, Herman, period.
And being slightly insane in may case may be an advantage.
Culling birds is for shit and useless. There are millions and millions of birds infected. How in the hell do you cull them all? How about using an atomic bomb? There are people in Indonesia and India, and other places that have bird flu as I write. This virus mutates at the speed of light, and the mortality rate is 60%. The mortality rate in 1918 was between 2 and 3%. More and more children or idiot adults will be exposed to sick birds, giving this virus the chance to mutate and adjust to humans. A pandemic, based on this virus is becoming highly probable, based on the incredible spread to millions and millions of birds. India is full of people eating dead birds infected with bird flu. In India a dog died of bird flu. I am not criticizing the people in India, because if I was hungry, I would eat all the sick birds I could find.
Now go ahead and scream that I do not know what I am talking about, that I am beating up on Revere because he hates Niman's guts, etc. All of those attacks are shit, and you know it.
Mellow out dude, before we both die of bird flu.

Herman unsurprisingly it sounds as if the situations in India and Indonesia that Henry has you so worked up about are essentially non-stories in terms of human infections. Unfortunately alarmists use these situations to pedal fear and hysteria. Remember the recent situation in Egypt that was was used to fan the flames of fear?

Human medical system has been implemented based on past experiences and useful to extent, nevertheless its paradigm is not quite correct in dealing with ecological ills such as BF case and pandemics prevention.

BF virus could be analogous to poison snake; when snake appears in your house, you have to catch it (contain it) and destroy it (cull it) at your sight. That is a reasonable treatment, this viewpoint is also experiential.

But when you have to have activities in natural environments (outdoors), the above treatment is wrong. Snake is everywhere, outdoors is his home. Snake has role in ecological system as well.

This blog has attracted the best flock of professionals with passion unfortunately un-updated paradigm of virus in ecological role.

BF is a problem derived from poultry which has adopted human medical system and its paradigm; please treat the root of this problem. Circling on symptom treatment is not a good doctor.

To me, BF is a very small case to warn that our paradigm and concept of virus has been wrong. We have lots to learn and rectify the errors.

Let us start from here!!!

Human medical system has been implemented based on past experiences and useful to extent, nevertheless its paradigm is not quite correct in dealing with ecological ills such as BF case and pandemics prevention.

BF virus could be analogous to poison snake; when snake appears in your house, you have to catch it (contain it) and destroy it (cull it) at your sight. That is a reasonable treatment, this viewpoint is also experiential.

But when you have to have activities in natural environments (outdoors), the above treatment is wrong. Snake is everywhere, outdoors is his home. Snake has role in ecological system as well.

This blog has attracted the best flock of professionals with passion unfortunately un-updated paradigm of virus in ecological role.

BF is a problem derived from poultry which has adopted human medical system and its paradigm; please treat the root of this problem. Circling on symptom treatment is not a good doctor.

To me, BF is a very small case to warn that our paradigm and concept of virus has been wrong. We have lots to learn and rectify the errors.

Let us start from here.

Jersey Shore Dvm,
Please read the report below. What we are dealing with is the almost total destruction of millions of birds due to this virus in some countries. And this increases the possibility the virus will adjust to humans. I am not trying to panic the universe. I am just saying we are in deep shit, because the infection of this many birds increases the possiblity the virus may someday day kill you and I. You can discuss whether the glass is half empty or half full, or whether Niman is full of shit all you want.
I am telling you the world has seldom seen a virus as dangerous as this virus to tigers, birds, humans, cats, dogs, etc. You deal with all the nice philosophical ramifications all you want, but if this virus goes from birds to humans efficiently, we are in deep shit. Now go ahead and criticize. I do not give a shit.

DHAKA: An outbreak of bird flu among poultry in Bangladesh is far worse than the countrys government is reporting, experts warned yesterday.
Bird flu is now everywhere. Every day we have reports of birds dying in farms, said leading poultry expert and the treasurer of Bangladesh Poultry Association M M Khan.
Things are now very very serious and public health is under danger. The government is trying to suppress the whole scenario, Khan said, adding that farmers were also holding back from reporting cases.

Okay herman we are all in deep shit if:

1. An asteroid hits the planet.
2. A human flu strain suddenly develops a 5% CFR.
3. The common cold suddenly causes deadly pneumonia in those that contract it.
4. A giant earthquake causes half the country to fall into the sea.
5. Russia decides to launch it's nuclear weapons against the western world.
6. Sun flares suddenly fry the earth
7. Islamic terrorists release a bio-weapon like smallpox.
8. We allow alarmists and snake oil salesmen to dictate our lives.

Your concern fits neatly in this list. Shall I continue?

Jersey,
Vietnam reports human bird blu death

Updated Wed. Jan. 23 2008 8:20 AM ET

The Associated Press

HANOI -- Bird flu has killed a man in northern Vietnam, marking the country's first human case this year, health officials said Wednesday.

The 32-year-old man from Tuyen Quang province, about 80 kilometres northwest of Hanoi, died last week, two days after being admitted to the national tropical disease hospital in Hanoi, said To Doan Hong of the provincial Preventive Medicine Centre.

Jersey, please read the above story. WHO has admitted limited human to human transmission exists. A Russian virologist recently stated H5N1 still is capable of going from limited human to human transmission, to efficient human to human transmission.
Just because efficient human to human transmission has not yet appeared, it does not mean it is not possible. There is the report today of 15 suspected cases of human H5N1 in a hospital in Indonesia.
Keep watching for these human clusters to increase in number. We may be approaching a critical mass as millions and millions of birds become ill and infect humans. And hospital workers are also being infected, that had no contact with birds.
Of course, if you are one of those who believe, like the minister of agriculture in Spain, that a bird flu pandemic is impossible, then the only way you will believe it is when you become infected, cannot breath, and start coughing up blood before you die, after being infected by bird flu. Many skeptics also existed in 1918 during the Spanish Flu pandemic, that killed about 100 million, and many of those skeptics died of Spanish Flu. Your skepticism will not stop the virus from killing you in a very unpleasant way. Just in case, make sure your mortician has plenty of coffins ready. There was a shortage of coffins in 1918, and people were buried in mass graves.

I think we are allowing a pissing match to develop here. There is not a need to respond to everyone with a sandwich board saying 'the end is near.'

Jersey,
This report relates to a meeting of experts on bird flu. After you read it you can again tell me I am full of shit.
Carl,
Who asked you?

BANGKOK (Reuters) - The world cannot afford to be complacent about the H5N1 bird flu virus despite its failure to trigger a human pandemic four years after sweeping across most of Asia, experts and officials said on Wednesday.

The latest outbreaks in India underscored the need for constant vigilance against a virus endemic in birds in parts of Asia, Africa and the Middle East, they told a Bangkok conference.

I am not a panic-monger myself, not by a long shot. I think we are not there yet, and there is still time to prepare our HC as much as possible for what may come, especially as an efficient HC system is useful in many situations, not only during a bird flu pandemic. But I do not in the least like the sound of this report from India:

"Honnavar: The spread of an unknown disease has been reported in Nawayath village in Uppani of Honnavar taluka which left three children dead and many others hospitalized. According to the sources, the disease is being spread in the area from past four days. The initial symptoms of the disease include fever, diarrhoea and vomiting, which gradually leads to death after two to three days of infection.

The deceased have been identified as Sajida Afreen Ibrahim (11), Khalid Basheer Ahmed (7), Zaheer Ahmed Faquih(14), the students of class V, III and IX respectively. Others who have been affected include six people who have been admitted to different hospitals. Aqueel Khaja(16),a class X student is admitted in Shridevi Hospital Honnavar, Parveen Ahmed Mukhtasar (14),class IX student, admitted in Sharada Nursing Home Karki, while two others have been taken to Mangalore hospital, whose names are unknown. The deceased Sajida's mother, Akhtar Banu Ibrahim (40) and her brother is also infected with the disease and are admitted in Shridevi Hospital, Honnavar."

http://www.sahilonline.org/english/coastalnews.asp?nid=1289&sid=1021188…

This could be something innocent and probably will, but on the other hand, I can hear the alarm bells ringing in the distance.

I think herman's problem is that he's legitimately frightened, but the uncertainty of the BF situation has caused him to long for certainty in the form of a pandemic. It's human nature, but it's also pernicious in that people sometimes end up essentially rooting for disaster, which does no one at all any good.

Phila, Herman;

Phila, you make an important point. We must recognise the power of adjustment reactions in everyone,but moreso in certain suseptible persons, one of which I suspect is Herman. These persons become fatalists, and their belief system is that the worst WILL happen. Whereas Revere is an experienced realist, if I may presume, and recognises that the worst MAY happen, but we just don't know one way or the other.

Herman, I can relate to your extreme level of concern. Most of us "Flubies" have been through the adjustment reaction after our "holy shit!" epiphany of how bad a H5N1 pandemic will/could be. We get it. We don't need you to lecture us about the magnitude of the danger. What we do need you to do is get active and help your community prepare for a possible pandemic, so that some of those children can be saved. Get active, you will feel better for it. I speak from personal experience.
However you will be discounted as an alarmist/doomsayer/lunatic if you maintain a tone of doom and gloom. We need you to convert your passion to constructive interaction with those that you can influence with your knowledge and commitment. How about it?

Henry has been posting all of his information up with media links at the bottom of his posts. He does put up a bit more information that could be misread as alarmist. Things like their ages, input times into the hospitals or death. Intermingling that with the info that he is able to provide that no one else does raises eyebrows. It can be a good or bad thing.

Henry is also a former fellow of the Scripps Inst. so thats not at issue. Stupid he isnt. Ex-vax maker. The problem with the community is that he has no grants and funding to get into a lab and do that scientist shit that every one else is able to do on yours, mine and Big Pharma's dime. He has to make more suggestions as a result. On the other hand you wont see him calling viruses stable. You know like OIE Director Vallat....That allows Henry a lot more leeway than most because when you have someone like Vallat make a statement everyone listens. When Henry speaks its not necessarily an incorrect voice, just a smaller one.

Go back to the raised eyebrows thing. Herman is upset because he can see what would happen. It might not. On the other hand its not looking real good. If you go back to 1950's flu it was a lot like this too, mildly pathogenic and then kerzap! H1N1 was also like this until it broke hard into humans. Speculation exists that it was around for years before it kicked off. Herman isnt wrong about what he fears. I think he needs to just take a pause and understand he can do the two or three things for just about any pandemic and thats prepare, or not. Once he is prepared, he should prepare others, or not. Either way the HCW''s will look like women and children first on the Titanic when the supplies run out.

Here is my fear. The media in the US reports what they think you need to know, not what you should. In that we sit back and speculate while others if it comes will be stunned, shaken to their knees and suddenly get the revelation of whats happening. The rest of us will be entering our safe zones...They will be looking for one. In looking for one they will become sick and die en masse. Horrific as it sounds we might just have to take the hit. Herman you are sending up rockets of distress in the middle of the group that has their matches and fireworks ready to go. None of us want to say its here and launch our rockets until we are sure. None of us can even though there is a lot of evidence that something is once again going on.

The problem? Pandemic levels may only be changed by the DG of the WHO. Do you in your right mind think that Auntie Margaret is going to do that before the Olympics? The Chinese have invested BILLIONS into that adventure and you have to understand that politics is and will be playing into this at every turn. My favorite saying to people when they ask me if its coming is that they'll acknowledge that its here after its crawling up the flag pole at the White House. No matter who is in there.

Take a break from this Herman. Give yourself a little time away from the news be it from here, Henry or whatever. You might find that this is starting an overload of your system. Go watch the sunset from a hill and enjoy it.. There will be plenty enough for everyone if it goes H2H and is extending. Do what you can to prepare yourself as its prudent to be ready at all times for just about any thing. Everyone so far has been wrong including Webster about it breaking out. When the experts are wrong in a good way, it aint so bad.

Herman, most who are active participants in the influenza blogs have experienced the same intensity of concern and awareness of prospective loss that you are expressing now.

The challenge here is attempting to understand the evolutionary direction and reason for a change of speed and expansion of hosts who then will further its easy transmission.

There is no "answer" because humans have such poor understanding of this process in terms of detailed, scientific, historical records. Next time, we will have a much more well documented record, worldwide, so those who come after us can apply their technology state to their facts and compare it to historical evolutionary events.

If you wish to be helpful, why not describe in detail the health and social conditions in Colombia, in a blog and a reference to a blog here, so, next time, later, those living in the future will have a well documented picture of what the living conditions, health conditions, socioeconomic conditions are now there in your city in Colombia. Remeber, it's the details that count. It's epidemiology, and you're the only one interested enough to document your area. Broad, general observations will not be helpful. How many, where, who, etc... If you do it, it will be you, in service, now, to people you will never know and will never meet. I'll share only that I too am, in part, in service, with my own finances placed in service, to attempt to prepare the US for pandemic. If I can succeed, I too will have served those I don't know, will never meet, and who will never recognize what I may have done. It's service. Many here are doing likewise.

Gaudia Ray says: It's in the poultry and their handlers. They're spreading it. That's why we don't know where it's going or what it will be next time....................
....................There is no "answer" because humans have such poor understanding of this process in terms of detailed, scientific, historical records. Next time, we will have a much more well documented record, worldwide, so those who come after us can apply their technology state to their facts and compare it to historical evolutionary events.

-----------------------------------------------------
paiwan said before: BF is a problem derived from poultry which has adopted human medical system and its paradigm; please treat the root of this problem.

--------------------------------------------------------

It seems instead we are ignoring the message. Avian H5N1 is a social-ecological web. So far, all we are doing is reacting to it. We cannot cull all the chickens in the world. Culling is only a temporary measure. So are vaccines and antiviral drugs.

We must look at causes and then change our behavior and tweak the ecology and tame these viruses. Not by using bigger guns. Bleach turns on virulence genes in some pathogens. We have seen this with antibiotics. We have to change our focus from killing to taming.

Look at our health management strategy for the time being: Doctors follow protocols (rules) and cannot change. They only see antiviral drugs like Tamiflu and vaccines. They do not and cannot entertain anything else. Prevention is RARE in American medical system. They consider vaccination prevention. ONLY.

It seems that we are farming poultry like we manage sick people. We rely on vaccines to keep poultry and people healthy, instead of using a more resilient strategy that is more resistant to virulent strains of viruses.

Can we manage building resilience into our poultry farming systems?

It is a new direction which would be able to adapt to crisis. Build resilience into our human and animal health systems. Do not do things that create highly pathogenic viruses.

Are we doing the right thing now?

We're in the middle of flu season, so you're going to see a lot suspect cases that will not be H5N1. Hermann, we saw a lot worse about two years ago with the initial Turkish and Azerbaijan cases. Since then, we have not seen anything like that. H5N1 is still extending its territory, but that's to be expected. Bird smuggling, inept biosecuriy measures in the poultry industry, and migration of wild birds are all ongoing contributory factors, which will continue until the virus runs out of birds to infect. I agree with Revere's thoughts. Niman has a tendency to couch his thoughts in more alarmist writing; it's his prerogative. Reminds me of the movie, "Same time next year."

Revere/Tom DVM/Marissa/Grace - Does anyone know if goats can act as the "mixing bowl" for H5N1 as effectively as pigs?

Lots of goats are hitting the ground after being sick with something that mimics at least the symptoms of BF in India. I know really that anything can do it in theory but I dont know the physiology of goats. Might have too soon.

Randy, as far as I know very little has been done on goats & H5N1. Goats aren't used as a model for any human disease that I know of. That doesn't mean they couldn't be a mixing bowl, but there would have to be a lot of goats mixing it up in the 'hood with H5N1 so see some action.