Still in the Dark

As a physicist with a blog, I am contractually obligated to do a post on the CDMS almost-a-result. This is that post.

The short version: they expected at most 0.8 events (that's total events, not events per day, or anything-- this is a whole community built on detecting nothing at all), and got 2, with maybe a third that was close to making the cut, but didn't. I think Joe Fitzsimons on Twitter summed it up best, writing:

Isn't that the least informative number of events possible?

It's more events than expected, but not enough to really be meaningful. The probability of this level of signal occurring by chance is around 23%, which is way too high to be significant, but low enough to be tantalizing.

The big live presentation conflicted with SteelyKid's pick-up from day care, so I didn't watch it. If you'd like to simulate seeing the data presented live, there are liveblogging posts you can read at your leisure. If grumpiness is more your thing, Peter Woit has you covered.

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Links to sites/commentary/lists for extreme weather events. Articles or blog posts listing events Top 10 Global Weather Events of 2011
“Never look down to test the ground before taking your next step; only he who keeps his eye fixed on the far horizon will find the right road.” -Dag Hammarskjold
"Where we're going, we won't need eyes to see." -Sam Neill, Event Horizon
Take a look at this video (click on the image to play). It's pretty clear what's going on -- the green dot bumps into the red dot, causing it to move:

Zero would be less informative.

In order for that third event to make it into the candidate box, the expected background would have increased to 1.7 events. It's a pretty robust "about twice the expected background" result. One of the two candidate events also has a somewhat glitchy signal in terms of its timing vis a vis a candidate event's expected timing. It's possible that they're seeing one glitch and one background event.

By Tom Renbarger (not verified) on 18 Dec 2009 #permalink

rehana said: "Zero would be less informative."

Not really. It would give stronger exclusion limits.